Calm the F**K Down! - What is wrong with everyone?

weather the storm wrote:

In the meantime, follow the advice of the experts and yes stop panicking.

The experts have been creating panic by putting out false information and making the situation more hurtful, harmful and dangerous to people , so I disagree.

Personally I feel we should do what we feel is best for ourselves.

The Democrats blinked first with California and New Yorks' governors issuing stay at home orders. In time for November the Republicans are going to slam the Democrats for panicking and overreacting like the wimps they are and how the poorest were the ones who suffered the most.

funny you said that - the world (excluding iran italy and spain) had a very good day even as Italy and Spain had an awful day.

The world death totals for non I-I-S countries was only 315. Vs. 311 the prior day. A 1% growth rate. We should be happy about that. While acknowledging that it is just one day.

From another thread:

very bad day in the big 3: very large increase of deaths.

I'll pick out a couple of pieces of more positive news tho.

In the big 3 the only positive is that in Iran daily deaths had their third straight day of the same count. I hope they are submitting accurate data.

The only other positive I see in today's data is that *outside* the big 3, deaths had a surprisingly light day. 315, vs 311 the day prior. Just a 1% growth rate.

In the past I have been talking about how the numbers from the big 3 were improving...today it flipped and the big 3 were awful but the rest of the world was surprisingly safe.

But that's just one day and each day can see wide variation. The hope is that countries that don't tip into Iran, Italy, Spain spirals can get through this ok. I hope national shutdowns and higher test levels will keep the rest of the world from Italy-Spain-Iran status.

Hope didn't work today in Italy and Spain.

On to tomorrow.

Still drooling over your statistics porn. This is the place for it.

dunes runner wrote:

sp2 wrote:

And blaming the media for reporting what's happening is just so *asinine*; all it does is diminish any credibility of anything else you might've had to say.

Giles Corey wrote:

To not understand that the media is not to be trusted and exists to push the narrative of the ruling elites is beyond naive.

Armstronglivs wrote:

So you're talking about Fox News. The communications arm of the WH.

All of the news, FOX, CNN, NBC, local news, all of them are terrible.

If all the news is terrible where do you get your facts from? Oh, in your head, right. Makes sense. Master of drivel.

weather the storm wrote:

weather the storm wrote:

I disagreed with you when you started this thread. Now you have a point. People are needlessly freaking out. The pendulum has switched.

The US has resilient people. This is a temporary event. It's not the beginning of a great depression like zerohedge wants people to believe. We'll bounce back.

The economy will get going again. It's a recession for sure, but we come out of recessions stronger. Sometimes recessions are short lived. In the meantime, follow the advice of the experts and yes stop panicking.

Sometimes recessions aren't short-lived. We have never seen the global economy come to an overnight standstill brought about by a health crisis of these proportions. We don't know where this is all going to lead.

Armstronglivs wrote:

weather the storm wrote:

The economy will get going again. It's a recession for sure, but we come out of recessions stronger. Sometimes recessions are short lived. In the meantime, follow the advice of the experts and yes stop panicking.

Sometimes recessions aren't short-lived. We have never seen the global economy come to an overnight standstill brought about by a health crisis of these proportions. We don't know where this is all going to lead.

1918 Flu ----Roaring 20s

Black Death---Renaissance

Yes, your silly theory failed quite impressively today. (Maybe cuz you really need more than two or three days of data to infer very much.)

Total deaths up 13% today. The rate of increase continues to climb.

The funny thing is you might *almost* be onto something sensible, but your focus is wrong.

Wigins, of course --being an absolute moron-- has it completely *backwards* as usual.

He says Italy should be *ignored*. This, naturally, is because it exposes his pet 'theories' as stunningly wrong and stupid. (But that keeps happening regardless of Italy, or any other particular country.)

You, at least, sort of *partly* have the right idea, to *focus* on Italy because it's clearly the best model for what's happening here --and here will probably be the best model for what happens in much of the rest of the world. (Spain being probably the next best. Iran, who knows? No one seems to know how much trust can be put in their numbers.)

So, yeah, since Italy's clearly the key *test-case*, now, to figure out how the US and the rest of the world is likely to go, you're right to focus attention on it and do exactly the opposite of what the moron Wigins suggests.

The problem is you really shouldn't be focusing on the deaths, but rather on the growth-rate of new cases. The death will shake out wherever it does. Whether it turns out to be 0.2% as the moron Wigins claims (it won't), or 4%, as most actual *evidence* suggests, or somewhere in-between, it's still gonna be a global catastrophe if it infects 3 billion people.

If it 'only' ends up hitting 10 million, it *won't* be the end of the world, even though it'll still be scary as hell.

The ultimate infection-rate is what will be decisive.

It *does* appear, more and more, that the spread really *has* been shut down in China, Japan, and SK. (Which again, is the *opposite* of what the moron Wigins claims in his latest desperate attempt to distract from his amazing string of ongoing stupidity.)

As you said (yes, I'm actually *agreeing* with you on an essential point), the big *test* now is whether Italy can flatten it out as those places did. If it does happen there, it'll be a very strong indication that the US and the rest of the world might have a decent chance to do the same --in spite of the amazing incompetence and stupidity with which we've handled it all up till now.

(And yeah, the same is true for Spain, which appears to be on a very similar track to the Italian one --just a little bit behind it.)

Both of those places show death-rates which are *horrifying* -and it's pretty clear a lot of that's from their medical systems getting swamped by a huge flood of cases in a short time.

Nothing's gonna stop the continued deaths of lots of the people stuck in that awful pipeline, so what really matters in the bigger picture is whether that flood of cases will peak, and subside, sometime soon.

The growth-rate appears to be dropping, in both those places, though it's still too high to look anything less than terrifying right now.

A few more days of data (a week will likely make it pretty clear) should tell us whether those growth-curves are, in fact, actually flattening like they did in China and SK.

If it happens, we'll have reason to believe the same thing may happen here in a few weeks more, and that will be the first real cause for a little bit of optimism to creep in to this catastrophe.

If it doesn't, all bets are probably off, no matter what fantasies Wigins and other idiots may peddle about 'vanishing' death-rates.

YMMV wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Sometimes recessions aren't short-lived. We have never seen the global economy come to an overnight standstill brought about by a health crisis of these proportions. We don't know where this is all going to lead.

1918 Flu ----Roaring 20s

Black Death---Renaissance

1918 flu - 50 million die world-wide.

Black Death - one third of Europe's population dies in 5 years.

Yes, the world recovers from such cataclysms, but many are not there to see it.

Great post. What about also looking at growth rates by state? Instead of just by country.

I only looked at one day of data but Washington was at ‘only 15%’. California I think was same. NY was off charts.70%+ And the other thing we can see is # of tests that come back positive. As in US we can see positive and negative tests for certain states Higher states are I think around 20% . Low states around 10%.

Maybe we look at 3 day trends. And right now it may not mean much because tests are just ramping up but the geographic differences in the us have to mean something right? Or could it just mean we started with a higher number in Ny.

State data here

https://covidtracking.com/

Thanks, Wej. I haven't really tried to do any more-granular analysis of state data, mostly cuz we still know so little, and most of the samples are so small, and there's so many unknowns in that COVID-tracker stuff. (Who's getting tested? Plus some states aren't even reporting negatives.)

But yeah, obviously it's a handful of awful clusters that have been the biggest problem so far.

(But I think we'll see a whole bunch more of those in the next week.)

Obviously, if we don't start backing down pretty quickly from this absolutely INSANE 40% growth we're experiencing right now, we're all in a lot of trouble.

As I talked about above, I'm assuming the best proxy for predicting that is what's happening in Italy (and Spain) right now.

If their growth flattens out substantially in the next week, I'll start to feel slightly better about the whole thing. If not,... I don't really want to think about it.

Have a good night.

dunes runner wrote:

All of the news, FOX, CNN, NBC, local news, all of them are terrible.

Armstronglivs wrote:

If all the news is terrible where do you get your facts from?

From using my brain and thinking for myself, apparently a novel concept to people like you.

Armstronglivs wrote:

Sometimes recessions aren't short-lived. We have never seen the global economy come to an overnight standstill brought about by a health crisis of these proportions. We don't know where this is all going to lead.

The new world order has long wanted the world population reduced to 500 million people, so that should give you some clue.

Oh, and --to be clear-- yes, I realize the reason for the INSANE 40% growth right now is *probably* that we FINALLY started to do a little f***ing TESTING after doing NOTHING for like two months.

(IOW, it's probably *not* that new infections are actually growing at 40%, but that we're just starting to test enough to recognize what's out there.)

But it doesn't matter that much right now. Even if there's a big catch-up factor, we're still starting to see the number that are out there, and it's getting bigger awfully fast.

Until that rate starts to slow down a whole bunch, no one but a moron (Bad Wigins, say) would be down-playing this situation.

wejo wrote:

right now it may not mean much because tests are just ramping up

Until everyone can be tested quickly and cheaply, none of it means much of anything. Total infection rates are speculation, the only sure thing is they're much higher than known.

The number of dead is known fairly precisely: only 11,000 in the entire world. Cold and flu season is ending. Coronaviruses are cold viruses, and the ones we've already got are no exception to the seasonality.

Manic focus on worst-case scenarios is a fatal cognitive bias.

wejo wrote:

I only looked at one day of data but Washington was at ‘only 15%’. California I think was same. NY was off charts.70%+ And the other thing we can see is # of tests that come back positive. As in US we can see positive and negative tests for certain states Higher states are I think around 20% . Low states around 10%.

Maybe we look at 3 day trends. And right now it may not mean much because tests are just ramping up but the geographic differences in the us have to mean something right? Or could it just mean we started with a higher number in Ny.

Where are you getting your info on rates? WA has been 10% like clockwork for three weeks.

sp2 wrote:

Oh, and --to be clear-- yes, I realize the reason for the INSANE 40% growth right now is *probably* that we FINALLY started to do a little f***ing TESTING after doing NOTHING for like two months.

(IOW, it's probably *not* that new infections are actually growing at 40%, but that we're just starting to test enough to recognize what's out there.)

But it doesn't matter that much right now. Even if there's a big catch-up factor, we're still starting to see the number that are out there, and it's getting bigger awfully fast.

Until that rate starts to slow down a whole bunch, no one but a moron (Bad Wigins, say) would be down-playing this situation.

A big question that is still unanswered is what impact warmer weather will have on the spread of the virus? There are still no tropical countries with the kind of growth numbers we have seen in Europe, the US, or SK. Malaysia has the most, but a lot of that was attributed to a large religious festival and there are still only 2 deaths there.

Philippines actually had the first death outside of China so they had an early case. Yet in a very densely populated urban area of 25 million with no social distancing the virus has not really spread. We see something similar in Indonesia, India, and other countries.

Maybe it's just lack of any testing, or maybe all of these countries are just at the beginning of the curve. We will see, but if the virus does not really spread the way it did in Europe that's potentially very good news.

dunes runner wrote:

dunes runner wrote:

All of the news, FOX, CNN, NBC, local news, all of them are terrible.

Armstronglivs wrote:

If all the news is terrible where do you get your facts from?

From using my brain and thinking for myself, apparently a novel concept to people like you.

In your case, clearly unimpeded by information from any other source. Explains much.