agip wrote:
numbers from the big 3 will not be good today. Italy had a gruesome day.
we'll see how the world as a whole did.
numbers are very spiky tho -we've seen big bad days and then much better results the next day.
The world minus Italy is the important thing, not the world as a whole. Whatever happened in Italy has not happened anywhere else. Italy has more deaths than the rest of the non-China world combined. That's both reason to not panic elsewhere, and also to suspect the quality of their data.
And it is becoming crystal clear that their "lockdown" has had no effect. The vast majority of the cases they are still discovering were already infected ten days ago. How many confirmed cases did they have back then? This suggests real infection rates are 10 or more times higher than reported, and that is good news, not bad.
We already knew that only a limited stratum of the population is vulnerable. Resources should have been directed to isolating and protecting them, not the entire population. The sooner the population has gained immunity, the sooner the vulnerable will be safer. And conversely, they will NOT be safe until that immunity is gained. The "flatten the curve" viral propaganda is premised on the unfounded claim that lack of ICU capacity will happen everywhere and cause more elderly deaths than otherwise. But it is also possible that prolonging the period of time when the disease is highly prevalent in the general population will cause more elderly deaths. There is no data to prove either hypothesis, only an enraged, self-righteous mob insisting on the former.
And oh yeah, the flu has still killed a lot more than 11,000 people in the world this year. Human coronaviruses typically run out of steam in warm weather, so this one's probably running out of time to catch up.