Calm the F**K Down! - What is wrong with everyone?

a) That's part true. For our own security politics it helpshaving you on our side

b) But it is strange to read people believe the opposite of things I take for granted. For me it's like most people on this board believe water only makes you thirsty and shouldn't be swallowed. It amazes me like genuinely. Not in a "I am better than you" kind of way, but like something is way of in a puzzle

c) I don't know a single one who doesn't think almost the same on this. It's just in the small details on how we should fight it over here. No one have said anything in the media either to support a different view

*person

* has

FinnJ wrote:

a) That's part true. For our own security politics it helpshaving you on our side

b) But it is strange to read people believe the opposite of things I take for granted. For me it's like most people on this board believe water only makes you thirsty and shouldn't be swallowed. It amazes me like genuinely. Not in a "I am better than you" kind of way, but like something is way of in a puzzle

c) I don't know a single one who doesn't think almost the same on this. It's just in the small details on how we should fight it over here. No one have said anything in the media either to support a different view

Well this is an anonymous forum, so lots of people say outrageous things to elicit responses from others.

...but in general, I think you'll find that in the US, individual liberties are more protected and valued, as compared to policies that would favor the general population. That's why any type of government intervention will get a lot more resistance here.

Ok, two simple data points here.

First, combining the big three countries into one pool of data.

Let's look at the change in daily deaths, day over day.

March 17 over March 16: +28%

March 18 over March 17: +8%

March 19 over March 18: +6%

So we see there that the increase in deaths is slowing over the last three days. This is good news. Small number of data points, but good news.

Now let's look at the entire world. The same thing: the percent change in daily deaths day over day.

March 17 over March 16: +25%

March 18 over March 17: +21%

March 19 over March 18: +11%

Again, small number of data points. But also again, we see the slowing of the increase in daily deaths. I believe this is unassailably good news. Assuming the data are correct.

P's data on Iran points in the same direction, using different methodology.

Points:

If the big three continue to improve, we will see a curve form and the numbers will start declining.

Since we've seen that curve form already in China, SK, Japan, that it forms in Italy, Spain, Iran would be something of a confirmation.

And maybe scientists could then extrapolate when/if we are on the same curve and recommend policy based on that.

So the key will be to see if the numbers from those three countries continue to improve. It's only three days so far.

The other side point is the media...when will they be brave enough to start publishing 'green shoots' type stories? (assuming that the data continue to improve).

Agip out.

( P tell me exactly what data you are looking for. )

Saying that it is good that the disease is mainly killing those from "one segment" of the population is great if you or your family aren't part of that segment, but you go further, saying that it is "good that it is mainly the old and the weak". Just to make sure you get that point across you repeat it. If you can't see that you are saying some lives, those of the old and the weak, are more expendable - are worth less - than others then you are a moron. But we know that already.

Nor is it saying that it is better that fewer die than many - which you don't ascribe to our efforts to save lives but that the disease chiefly kills the the old and the weak. A disease does not offer choices and options; it takes those it can. That it is now killing thousands, which could become millions, is enough to grasp that this is a crisis that is inflicting tragedy and will inflict more before it is done. Your seeing the "silver lining" in that it takes the most vulnerable - as diseases do - is in conformity with someone who only sees statistics, not lives. But one thing we can be sure of is that you wouldn't talk the way you do if it is your life that becomes expendable. And it may.

Japan hasn't done any of the lockdowns that many other nations have. Other than school closures - it's business as usually. Their government doesn't seem to be in a state of panic like America's is:

"Unlike China’s draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to shelter in place, Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open."

***********************************

What are you *talking* about? First of all, your numbers are wrong. (I only checked three; all three were wrong.)

Second, you distort the heck out of it by comparing daily change to previous daily change, which magnifies the crap out of tiny blips.

Here's the actual data. (Sorry for formatting, but you can see the key stuff pretty easily.)

Date Total

Deaths Change

in Total Change in

Total (%)

Mar. 18

8,951 973 12%

Mar. 17

7,978 817 11%

Mar. 16

7,161 642 10%

Mar. 15

6,519 686 12%

Mar. 14

5,833 404 7%

Mar. 13

5,429 448 9%

Mar. 12

4,981 353 8%

Mar. 11

4,628 332 8%

Mar. 10

4,296 271 7%

Mar. 9

4,025 198 5%

Mar. 8

3,827 228 6%

Mar. 7

3,599 105 3%

Mar. 6

3,494 107 3%

Mar. 5

3,387 102 3%

Mar. 4

3,285 83 3%

Mar. 3

3,202 85 3%

Mar. 2

3,117 67 2%

What do you see in that right-hand column? A rate of increase that had flattened a lot after China died down, and then rose steadily again when the rest of the world started getting sick.

It's risen from 2% to ~12% over the last 17 days. (Today's number is a little over 12%.)

Does it look like the increase in Italy, Spain, and Iran *might* be flattening out? Yeah, possibly, but it's not *nearly* enough data to judge, and nobody knows if Iran's numbers bear any relation to real life.

Even if it *is* an actual trend (which would be nice, yeah), the deaths in the US, UK, France, Germany are just *starting* to take off in the last few days, and with the *spectacular* growth-rates of infections in those places, the numbers of deaths there will quickly make a much bigger dent in the overall totals.

There's an avalanche of new deaths coming shortly in Europe and here.

And we haven't gotten *any* real data at all yet from India or Russia (both of whom are obviously suppressing it as much and as long a they can, just as *our* Fascist idiot attempted to do here).

Is it *possible* the rate of new deaths is flattening some? Yeah, it's *possible*, but betting the house on it would be supremely dumb. And if it *does* happen, there's an excellent chance it'll just be a momentary pause anyway. (Like we already saw a month ago.)

And blaming the media for reporting what's happening is just so *asinine*; all it does is diminish any credibility of anything else you might've had to say.

More testing is reducing the %

FinnJ wrote:

I don't know a single one who doesn't think almost the same on this. It's just in the small details on how we should fight it over here. No one have said anything in the media either to support a different view

The oligarchs who control the media must be very happy with that state of mind.

Let's get to the bottom of this wrote:

Japan hasn't done any of the lockdowns that many other nations have. Other than school closures - it's business as usually. Their government doesn't seem to be in a state of panic like America's is:

"Unlike China’s draconian isolation measures, the mass quarantine in much of Europe and big U.S. cities ordering people to shelter in place, Japan has imposed no lockdown. While there have been disruptions caused by school closures, life continues as normal for much of the population. Tokyo rush hour trains are still packed and restaurants remain open."

Bravo for Japan!

dunes runner wrote:

FinnJ wrote:

I don't know a single one who doesn't think almost the same on this. It's just in the small details on how we should fight it over here. No one have said anything in the media either to support a different view

The oligarchs who control the media must be very happy with that state of mind.

That's what's infuriating. There's a healthy debate going on everywhere - except the media and government. At least based upon public statements.

2/3 of the people I know think this is way over-hyped and are not "freaking out" the way Fox News says we are. And these are people following the news very closely.

I know it's counter-intuitive for some - but a lack of debate makes a viewpoint less credible.

When the panic strikes the little people buy toilet paper and the big people lock down cities , counties and countries.

So Italy is 10 days into its "lockdown" now, still finding a ton of new cases despite an average 5 day incubation period. Looks like either

1) lockdowns are completely ineffective

2) they already had a ton of infections and they're just now starting to find the mild ones that thought they had cold or flu.

I suspect the real number of infected in Italy is more than a million.

Bad Wigins wrote:

So Italy is 10 days into its "lockdown" now, still finding a ton of new cases despite an average 5 day incubation period. Looks like either

1) lockdowns are completely ineffective

2) they already had a ton of infections and they're just now starting to find the mild ones that thought they had cold or flu.

I suspect the real number of infected in Italy is more than a million.

Its too early to tell.

Wuhan went into lock down 23rd Jan, cases there peaked Feb 4th/5th (discounting the later spike due to the method cases were diagnosed).

This coincides with italian epidemiologists prediction Italy will see its peak around 25th March, if the increment keep rising after that then we can conclude the quarantine is a failure.

Must admit, in the UK, I'm thinking they need to do more now, the balance isn't right. Too many oldies are just sitting about in places like Wetherspoons, whilst oddly younger folk seem to be taking it more seriously to try and protect them. Problem is a lot of younger people have to travel to work if critical, the oldies don't need to.

Some of them will be fine, and look healthy, but must admit, there's enough out there that I suspect should be tucked up in their home for a couple of months.

coronasceptic wrote:

dunes runner wrote:

The oligarchs who control the media must be very happy with that state of mind.

That's what's infuriating. There's a healthy debate going on everywhere - except the media and government. At least based upon public statements.

2/3 of the people I know think this is way over-hyped and are not "freaking out" the way Fox News says we are. And these are people following the news very closely.

I know it's counter-intuitive for some - but a lack of debate makes a viewpoint less credible.

Governments need to act on the best information they have in order to save lives. Not waste time fighting contrarians.

If they make the wrong call and more people die then they won’t get reelected, that’s democracy.

Bad AKA 'shifting the goalpost to win his own argument' Wigins

Your information is completely made up and your prediction is not that smart and completely incorrect. The onset of the symptoms is very very slow compared to other serious viruses, which is why they haven't been able to contain it under normal protocol and why there are clueless as to what's the best precaution to take. Also that a large number are asymptomatic but can easily pass it on and it has a significantly higher death rate (depending on availability of treatment), means this is uncharted territory and that a lockdown is the only proposal on the table right now in many countries. People in Madrid have been on lock down since Monday and it will be at least a week before some people will fall ill.

People that are actually smart, who's job it is to actually interpret the data coupled with events have seen the trend in China, Iran, early Italy (as much as we can believe the information is accurate) know that the 2 week quarantine is not long enough and which is why it will be extended. It obviously works. The scary thing is if it only works if you enforce it to the degree that China has. We will see with Italy in a couple of weeks.

sp2 wrote:

And blaming the media for reporting what's happening is just so *asinine*; all it does is diminish any credibility of anything else you might've had to say.

To not understand that the media is not to be trusted and exists to push the narrative of the ruling elites is beyond naive.

I stand by the data. I just checked it at

A couple of total deaths numbers changed by 1 or 10 but the italy, spain, iran data did not change at all. What source are you using?

What house am I betting, exactly? On an anonymous running website. Who is blaming the media for anything? Not me on either. I've not said a world contradicting any health experts.

I'll say it again:

1) There is a clear statistical trend in those three countries that the death count is increasing less each day. It's only three days though. Today would be the 4th day.

2) it will be interesting to see when the media feel comfortable writing about that trend, should it continue.

True that the total world death rate curve is behind the big 3 by some days. But that is exactly my point. If Italy, Spain, Iran *do* follow the lead of SK, China and Japan, we'll have a pattern. That the rest of the world may follow.

update: Iran's growth in daily deaths for Friday shows the trend continued there. Death count unchanged from Th to Fr. So essentailly unch for 4 or maybe even 5 days.