I may have not explained myself enough, and for that I apologize. This is the math I am calling BS on (Runner/DR posted on a different thread):
"Allow me to simplify this for you:
If X = deaths from COVID-19
If Y = infected people
X/Y = mortality rate
If Y is underestimated, it will inflate the mortality rate.
There are numerous reasons for Y to be falsely low. Maybe there aren't enough test kits. Also people with mild symptoms aren't being tested. These are the big 2. But there are others.
X is much more likely to be correct. It's very easy to track this number. Someone dies from a febrile respiratory illness...you test them. Almost nobody falls through the cracks there."
My comments:
1. Y (# infected) is absolutely underestimated. In fact it is an absolute minimum--the lower bound. So on this point he is correct.
2. Calling X(# of deaths) "more likely to be correct" is asinine. We're NOT testing the dead (or the living) nearly enough, and neither were other countries until recently, China being the exception. Deaths from atypical pneumonia or ARDS could have easily been COVID19 cases that were missed. So the entire equation falls apart.
3. To a greater point--he's using the numbers to suggest "it's not as bad as advertised". In other words, using bs data to say it's all bs.
Whether the mortality rate is 0.01% or 10% COVID19 has exponential potential as Iran and Italy have found out on multiple days. Saying numbers are not trustworthy and then commenting on linearity is beyond dishonest. It's downright stupid. Some days are linear, some days multiplicative. More importantly, none of that speaks to the future and THAT depends on how we respond and mitigate risk. Facts are changing rapidly--to even begin to surmise what tomorrow will bring is an idiotic thing to do, as is telling people to "calm down" as if concern and panic are synonymous.
The warning signs have been in place since early January and yet there are people--MDs even-- who don't understand the necessity for precaution & anticipatory action. Not to mention that you are a f****** healthcare provider amidst an actual pandemic with huge unknowns...The only thing out of your mouth should be geared toward risk reduction to prevent further transmission.
So again, stick to what you know and STFU about systemic risk management.