What are the odds Boston and/or London marathons get cancelled?

Impossible to predict

Will come from a (semi-arbitrary) choice from people higher up

The location of concern is nursing homes in U.S. One or more nursing homes are involved with Washington state east Asian bat flu in U.S. Families need to pull their resources and attempt to provide home nursing care for their loved ones as opposed to using the services of nursing homes.

A number of the runners with long term streaks at Boston are older and may be more at risk of real problems if they catch corona virus. I wonder how many will decide to end their streak this year or how many will risk it and go forward given the scenario there are more a lot more cases found in the US.

Discussion about coronavirus and Boston and Olympic trials and Olympics.

I would be making sure i had refundable accommodation that's for sure. I think it's 90 % certain both will be.

Best can hope for is Elites only.

And people that have been ever present competitors will be allowed.

If Boston is cancelled, what’s to keep people from showing up at 10am in Hopkinton, and running 26.2 miles on the side of the road to Boylston Street?

Bandito wrote:

If Boston is cancelled, what’s to keep people from showing up at 10am in Hopkinton, and running 26.2 miles on the side of the road to Boylston Street?

Nothing. Would be lame and you couldn't run the tangents. Crowds would be the same as 2018 so you got that going for you.

close the lid before flushing wrote:

Bandito wrote:

If Boston is cancelled, what’s to keep people from showing up at 10am in Hopkinton, and running 26.2 miles on the side of the road to Boylston Street?

Nothing. Would be lame and you couldn't run the tangents. Crowds would be the same as 2018 so you got that going for you.

haha.

I was reading this story about how things are going in a city in Italy and thinking events that draw people from around the world where they will be together in buses, a expo, a pasta dinner, a post race party and use port-a-johns where you cannot wash your hands and people high five people along the course (that could be stopped this year but some may do it still) might not be a responsible thing to do. Better to plan ahead and stop the spread now instead of wait for it to get really bad to take action.

Maybe have it where only the elites can run.

Or people from Massachusetts or maybe Mass and a couple surrounding states can officially run.

Limit the potential for spread and from catching it from around the world. Do 1/3 of the runners for Boston really come from around the world as they said in the broadcast?

I suspect there’s decent chance it’s cancelled. The coronavirus in the USA right now is about the numbers Italy was showing 2 weeks ago. Meaning, in 2 weeks we’ll have thousands infected and hundreds dead. I hope that’s not the case but that is what happened in Italy and Iran. By April it will be everywhere.

I stayed at a hotel in Quincy that had easy access to Boston and cost under $200. It also allowed room cancellation 24 or 48 hours before arrival. I always try to stay somewhere that allows cancellation at least a day or two before check in. If I were going this year I would start to worry about my scheduled flights. United announced today 10% reduction in domestic flights and 20% in international flights. What happens to those whose flights are cancelled? Will they still be able to find available flight arrival and departure times that work for them?

A Sunday flight is risky. I last ran in 2018. My departure flight from a Great Lakes area airport was Saturday afternoon. An ice storm just started at my airport around departure time. It got much worse after my flights departure. Many runners had flights affected by the winter storm and did not arrive in Boston in time before packet pickup closed on Sunday. The BAA had to extend packet pickup for those. I'd hate to have my flight cancelled and be force to try to find another flight that still works.

Who is going to show up to race with a dry cough and a fever?

Yes, it can be transmitted before that, maybe. No, that's not a major factor in its spread.

you made a funny wrote:

https://apnews.com/837274f1bab9af1aab12f1b9481b2d62?fbclid=IwAR1KSA41xFXYgtDg7_baBvebh8Uy8j8xdnKYwccPh8dhxDnZcfWJjS9S4cc

So they are asking retired doctors and nurses to come back to work. These are likely to be in their 60s and older and much more likely die from the virus especially if they have underlying health issue.

Many likely have underlying health issue. See below advise for those over 60 with underlying issues:

King County Executive Dow Constantine said during a Wednesday news conference. County officials advised people over 60 and with underlying conditions, as well as pregnant women, to stay home and avoid large groups.

discussion on Olympic trails Boston wrote:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2020/03/04/could-the-boston-marathon-be-the-next-victim-of-coronavirus%3f_amp=true

Discussion about coronavirus and Boston and Olympic trials and Olympics.

Just to timestamp 7:14 to get to the marathon discussions.

People who worked hard to qualify and barely made the cut off times and this is their one shot to do Boston are going to try to show up to try to run.

People who have a long streak are going to try to continue to keep their streak going and try to push through it. See below of a guy a couple years ago who tried to do it before his broken fibula had healed. He tried to do it with crutches.

Maybe now that there is a lot of talk about coronavirus one may think twice about running with symptoms of coronavirus.

But there may be some who will be in denial and think it is just a cough and show up for their one shot to run at Boston. It doesn't take many to infect a lot of people. And those people will be dispersed across the united states and the world when they go back home.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/04/14/for-his-boston-marathon-injured-runner-will-attempt-feat-crutches/hp9fgsg5BWjPPGisjZ8v6N/story.html

So they are asking retired doctors and nurses to come back to work. These are likely to be in their 60s and older and much more likely die from the virus especially if they have underlying health issue. Many likely have underlying health issue. See below advise for those over 60 with underlying issues:

Good point.

Icouldbeyourmom wrote:

I suspect there’s decent chance it’s cancelled. The coronavirus in the USA right now is about the numbers Italy was showing 2 weeks ago. Meaning, in 2 weeks we’ll have thousands infected and hundreds dead. I hope that’s not the case but that is what happened in Italy and Iran. By April it will be everywhere.

Your not factoring in the Fact The USA is much more advanced than Italy, The USA Doctors have far better schooling than their counterparts in Italy, China, Japan etc. We are in a better position than all these other countries, that is why people risk their lives to try to come to The USA, we are just better, our Education is better, our crime is lower, we have more unity and social cohesion, we are the highest trust society in history.

Based on the amount of repeat posts from the first page, I’d put the number at 245% chance it’s cancelled this year.

Half way through the 2018 Boston I was actually wishing my flight hadn't made it to Boston at all.

[ Do 1/3 of the runners for Boston really come from around the world as they said in the broadcast?

just about... more like 1/4....last year of the 30,000 entered, 22,695 lived in the U.S.