London Marathon is in 54 days: here are 54 profiles, one per day

Aussiestatman wrote:

Another South African may be the next man. Elroy Gelant was fourth in Cape Town last September in 2.10.31. Doesn’t hold a top 20 time among his countrymen, would need to slice two full minutes to have that. Best over the half of 61.01 July 2019, second in Port Elizabeth.

17th could be Polat Arikan, 29yo and ranked 187. Debut April last year in Paris, sixth in 2.08.14. Best at the half was four weeks prior: 11th in Lisbon in 60.27.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Fifteenth woman should be Gerda Steyn. PB of 2.27.48 from her 11th in New York last November then 13th at RAK over the half this feb in 70.55. Is building to something special.

No doubt in my mind that Gerda gets the 24yo NR from the golden days of South African distance running. Back to the time when in 98 and 99 two of her country’s athletes fought over podium places in Chicago.

Huge Gerda Steyn fan here, but from her social media I think the lock down in Dubai didn't do her running any favors and her running seemed to be behind the curve a couple of weeks ago. Still lots of time for her to round into shape though. She's got a race scheduled in the UK soon (this weekend I think), let's see what those results show us.

Seventeenth lady might be Lily Partridge, 29yo and PB here two years ago when eighth in 2.29.24. Lily was at halfway with Steph Bruce but ran away from her in the second half.

DeeksQuarters wrote:

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Next finisher could be your man, Brett Robinson. Winner at the Marugame half in Feb where i didnt even consider him a chance:

Aussiestatman wrote:

DeeksQuarters wrote:

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Next finisher could be your man, Brett Robinson. Winner at the Marugame half in Feb where i didnt even consider him a chance:

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9813352#9814839

Won there in a NR of 59.57, taking more than 4 minutes [minutes, not seconds] off his PB. More discussion from then here:

DeeksQuarters wrote:

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Brett was in the lead pack at halfway in New York last year in 64.50 but things went pear shaped after 22 miles. Miles 23 to 25 in 5.50, 6.08, and 6.33 to eventually finish 23rd in 2.17.50.

Aussiestatman wrote:

DeeksQuarters wrote:

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Brett was in the lead pack at halfway in New York last year in 64.50 but things went pear shaped after 22 miles. Miles 23 to 25 in 5.50, 6.08, and 6.33 to eventually finish 23rd in 2.17.50.

Impressive when 13th here last year in 2.10.55

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seventeenth lady might be Lily Partridge, 29yo and PB here two years ago when eighth in 2.29.24. Lily was at halfway with Steph Bruce but ran away from her in the second half.

Next woman could be Sara Caterina Ribeiro, 12th in the ultra deep Valencia marathon last December in 2.26.39. Six weeks prior, ran her PB in a half in Lisbon: 7th in 71.37. Only seven Portuguese women have a quicker time over the classic distance but there have been 25 instances. The legend Rosa Mota has 5 of those and Jessica Augusto has 6.

19th man should be debutante Ben Connor, 27yo and ranked 145 as a road runner. PB of 61.12 finishing eighth in Barcelona in 2018. 63rd at the last edition of the World Half Champs.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seventeenth lady might be Lily Partridge, 29yo and PB here two years ago when eighth in 2.29.24. Lily was at halfway with Steph Bruce but ran away from her in the second half.

Next woman could be Sara Caterina Ribeiro, 12th in the ultra deep Valencia marathon last December in 2.26.39. Six weeks prior, ran her PB in a half in Lisbon: 7th in 71.37. Only seven Portuguese women have a quicker time over the classic distance but there have been 25 instances. The legend Rosa Mota has 5 of those and Jessica Augusto has 6.

Second American could be next, Molly Seidel. Only 27 and is going to the Olympics next year. 13th over the half in Houston in Jan in 69.35 then second in the most important event of her career. Ran 2.27.31 that day in Feb. Both were debuts at the distances.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Next woman could be Sara Caterina Ribeiro, 12th in the ultra deep Valencia marathon last December in 2.26.39. Six weeks prior, ran her PB in a half in Lisbon: 7th in 71.37. Only seven Portuguese women have a quicker time over the classic distance but there have been 25 instances. The legend Rosa Mota has 5 of those and Jessica Augusto has 6.

Second American could be next, Molly Seidel. Only 27 and is going to the Olympics next year. 13th over the half in Houston in Jan in 69.35 then second in the most important event of her career. Ran 2.27.31 that day in Feb. Both were debuts at the distances.

I should qualify that last sentence: the half was her first on a course eligible for records.

Aussiestatman wrote:

19th man should be debutante Ben Connor, 27yo and ranked 145 as a road runner. PB of 61.12 finishing eighth in Barcelona in 2018. 63rd at the last edition of the World Half Champs.

20th is a Mexican

Good point, he did struggle in NY after courageously going out with the lead pack. I reckon the flat, fast course in London will suit him though. He's our best chance of being the next sub 2:10 Australian I reckon

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

19th man should be debutante Ben Connor, 27yo and ranked 145 as a road runner. PB of 61.12 finishing eighth in Barcelona in 2018. 63rd at the last edition of the World Half Champs.

20th is a Mexican

Juan Luis Barrios with a PB of 2.10.55 from 21st in Tokyo 2018. And what a year 2018 would be for him: four weeks after Tokyo he proudly represented his country in the world half marathon champs with a credible 62.18; then in July...

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

20th is a Mexican

Juan Luis Barrios with a PB of 2.10.55 from 21st in Tokyo 2018. And what a year 2018 would be for him: four weeks after Tokyo he proudly represented his country in the world half marathon champs with a credible 62.18; then in July...

Would need a big improvement and a 2.08.29 to get the 25yo NR of the former three time London winner.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Second American could be next, Molly Seidel. Only 27 and is going to the Olympics next year. 13th over the half in Houston in Jan in 69.35 then second in the most important event of her career. Ran 2.27.31 that day in Feb. Both were debuts at the distances.

I should qualify that last sentence: the half was her first on a course eligible for records.

And 20th woman may be Risper Gesabwa with a PB of 2.30.49 in finishing 9th in Frankfurt in 2015 and only 10 sec slower in Dubai early this year, finishing tenth. Risper's best performance of her long career was beating Hiwot Alayew over 10k in New Orleans in 2014 at the Crescent City Classic in 31.43. Hiwot was the runner-up also the year before then finally won the next year, and her claim to fame is being only one of four women to go sub 9.10 in the Steeple and under 14.50 over 5000 on the track. The others were Galkina, Chepkoech, and Dominguez. Risper would, of course, like to join her 7 countrywomen to plunge under 2.30 over this classic distance.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

I should qualify that last sentence: the half was her first on a course eligible for records.

And 20th woman may be Risper Gesabwa with a PB of 2.30.49 in finishing 9th in Frankfurt in 2015 and only 10 sec slower in Dubai early this year, finishing tenth. Risper's best performance of her long career was beating Hiwot Alayew over 10k in New Orleans in 2014 at the Crescent City Classic in 31.43. Hiwot was the runner-up also the year before then finally won the next year, and her claim to fame is being only one of four women to go sub 9.10 in the Steeple and under 14.50 over 5000 on the track. The others were Galkina, Chepkoech, and Dominguez. Risper would, of course, like to join her 7 countrywomen to plunge under 2.30 over this classic distance.

Women starting three hours before the men.

21st man could be Arne Gabius, 39yo and ranked 359. PB of 2.08.33 is still the German NR and was achieved when 4th in Frankfurt in 2015. Also holds the second and third best German times. Last Nov was 11th in New York in 2.12.57.

Next woman might be Darya Mykhaylova whose PB of 2.28.15 was when second in Oct at Belaya Tserkva in the Ukrainian Champs. Darya ran seven halfs last year. A small improvement of 18 sec over this classic distance would move her from 12th to 7th among her countrywomen.