London Marathon is in 54 days: here are 54 profiles, one per day

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Alright then, among the women 5th to 7th seems to be three tough choices: who do you think?

Sixth woman may be the living legend, Vivian Cheruiyot, 36yo and ranked 18. Second here last year in 2.20.14 then fourth in Valencia in 2.18.52. One of only two ladies to have two sub 2.20.15 times last year. There has only been 65 performances by 39 athletes across all of marathon history under that time.

It will be enthralling the battle among the women between Dereje and Vivian. Roza was third here last year behind Vivian but in December the order was reversed in Valencia.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Alright then, among the women 5th to 7th seems to be three tough choices: who do you think?

Sixth woman may be the living legend, Vivian Cheruiyot, 36yo and ranked 18. Second here last year in 2.20.14 then fourth in Valencia in 2.18.52. One of only two ladies to have two sub 2.20.15 times last year. There has only been 65 performances by 39 athletes across all of marathon history under that time.

With Jepkosgei, my original 5th choice, no longer in: Vivian moves to fifth.

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Here is your seventh lady if the same start list applies in October. 21yo with outstanding debut in Amsterdam.

https://worldathletics.org/news/report/amsterdam-toronto-lisbon-delhi-half-marathon

Eighth woman should be Gladys Cherono. Fourth here last year in 2.20.52. Ran the fastest marathon in the world in 2018: Berlin in 2.18.11. Her winning time when she won in the same city in 2015, 2.19.25, was then the fastest in the world for more than three years.

With Cherono not now involved, fill in 6th with Azimeraw and add in Jemeli in 7th.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Tenth lady may be Edith Chelimo on debut.

Just turned 34 with a big gap in her results between 2004 and 2010. PB for a half set in Cardiff 2017 and since has run another five under 68. Only her and the WR holder have six in that time. Another three others have five. Joan Melly stands out from them as hers are all sub 66.20.

Megertu and Chelimo both up one to 8 and 9 then insert Sara Hall at 10.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Eighth woman should be Gladys Cherono. Fourth here last year in 2.20.52. Ran the fastest marathon in the world in 2018: Berlin in 2.18.11. Her winning time when she won in the same city in 2015, 2.19.25, was then the fastest in the world for more than three years.

With Cherono not now involved, fill in 6th with Azimeraw and add in Jemeli in 7th.

This was my take on Jemeli 8 months ago in a end of year thread:

At last, into the top ten. The ten men ended up clear cut, I don’t think any correspondence can be entered into. The women top nine are clear but tenth could be any of five, IMO. Second in Valencia would probably be where I would land now but Azmera Abreha wasn’t quite in my 20 when I started this project a month ago. So for the sake of the list, I have Valary Jemeli here at ten.

Valary Jemeli Aiyabei is 28yo and ranked 3. Would agree somewhat with the ranking if the Frankfurt second half was closer to the first: i.e. a sub 2.18 finish. As it is, after her third in Nagoya in March, took 1.26 off the Frankfurt CR to win in 2.19.10. After 10k at sub 2.14 pace and halfway in 67.42, it could have gone anywhere.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Gideon Kipketer, Sondre Moen, or Dewi Griffiths?

So it is Kipketer, especially if he can channel his 2017 self. PB in Tokyo then fifth at Worlds.

Kipketer now tenth, Moen 11th.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Is only 22 or 23 years old. Won Rome last April in 2.22.52

Then in October at halfway in Frankfurt, was in a pack of five at 69.26 but already 1.44 behind Jemeli. I was hoping in vain that six may go sub 2.19.

Like Frankfurt, Megertu gets to chase Jemeli again. This time if Alemu is 1.44 behind her at halfway, there could be 3 or 4 in between.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Moen next. Holds the NR for 10000 on the track, half marathon, and the classic distance. It will be an accomplishment here if he can snag 7th at this that will ostensibly be the world champs for 2020.

11 then is Dewi Griffiths. Best of 2.09.49 when fifth in Frankfurt in 2017. Was at halfway that day in 63.49.

Dewi our injured, slight niggle.

Aussiestatman wrote:

GenkiDama wrote:

I must completely diagree with your opinions. The Ineos exhibition is worthless and irrelevant. Bekele run in Berlin was much more impressive than that.

Bekele is more talented than Kipchoge and has been taking his training very seriously, apparently having a better schedule than for his Berlin race and being for the moment injury free. There is nothing to indicate that Bekele will not come in top shape. More talented , with a better finish and a better killer mindset.

Bekele for the win.

Kenenisa Bekele is my pick for third. He is 37yo and ranked 10. Won Berlin last year when I had him pegged fourth, so I underestimated his ability and training then. His time of 2.01.41 was only two seconds off the WR. His previous best was 2.03.03 when winning in the same city three years prior.

gosh what did you drink?

Bekele for #1!

Aussiestatman wrote:

13th man should be Yassine Rachik, highest ranked Italian even though the NR was broken by another early this year.. Rachik’s best of 2.08.05 was for ninth here last year then was 12th at Worlds. His PB for 10k of 28.45 is from 2017 when second in Dalmine.

Rachik is no longer on the list, so 13th now for me is Jared Ward. Was the second best American marathoner last year with an eighth in Boston in 2.09.25 and sixth in New York in 2.10.45.

DeeksQuarters wrote:

Would love to see Jack Rayner finish this high, he's a massive talent, but he had a big injury earlier in the year and has logged less than 3000 strava km in the year to date. Brett Robinson is a more likely pick for top Aussie on the men's side?

Interested to know who you think can win between Nick Earl and Julian Spence in the battle of the Inside Running podcast rivals? Forget Kipchoge/Bekele, that's the real head-to-head battle here!

Sticking with Jack at 14 even with the influx of some good Europeans hungry for Olympic qualification. Wait a few days for my call on Earl v Spence.

15th may be Johnny Mellor, 33yo and ran his PB in Seville in Feb in 2.10.05. Finished 23rd with only Tokyo having more finishers under that time so far this year. Was in a pocket of 8 runners within 14 sec of each other. Last year Johnny was 19th here in 2.13.25 and 16th in Berlin in 2.12.29.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Charlotte Purdue could finish 12th after a tenth here last year in her PB of 2.25.38.

Had a great result this year in Japan to reach her highest ranking as a road runner: 49. Second over the half in Marugame in 68.23.

Purdue no longer in the field but in a ‘like for like’ swap I now have Steph Twell at 12. PB of 2.26.40 when 8th last Oct in Frankfurt. Also 8th in Houston over the half last Jan in 68.55. Impressive winner over 10000 on the track last July in 31.08.13 beating Salpeter.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Had a great result this year in Japan to reach her highest ranking as a road runner: 49. Second over the half in Marugame in 68.23.

Next British lady may well be Jess Piasecki. Made her debut at this classic distance last November in Florence, winning in 2.25.29.

Jess is now out as well, so 14th for me will be Anna Hahner, one of the twins whose best of 2.26.44 was for seventh in Berlin in 2014. Along with twin Lisa, neither has really conquered the half, with Anna’s best of 73.26 coming in 2013. Was fifth over this classic distance in Berlin three years ago in 2.28.32.

Fifteenth woman should be Gerda Steyn. PB of 2.27.48 from her 11th in New York last November then 13th at RAK over the half this feb in 70.55. Is building to something special.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Fifteenth woman should be Gerda Steyn. PB of 2.27.48 from her 11th in New York last November then 13th at RAK over the half this feb in 70.55. Is building to something special.

No doubt in my mind that Gerda gets the 24yo NR from the golden days of South African distance running. Back to the time when in 98 and 99 two of her country’s athletes fought over podium places in Chicago.

Another South African may be the next man. Elroy Gelant was fourth in Cape Town last September in 2.10.31. Doesn’t hold a top 20 time among his countrymen, would need to slice two full minutes to have that. Best over the half of 61.01 July 2019, second in Port Elizabeth.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aussiestatman wrote:

Fifteenth woman should be Gerda Steyn. PB of 2.27.48 from her 11th in New York last November then 13th at RAK over the half this feb in 70.55. Is building to something special.

No doubt in my mind that Gerda gets the 24yo NR from the golden days of South African distance running. Back to the time when in 98 and 99 two of her country’s athletes fought over podium places in Chicago.

It would be awesome to have 16 women under 2.16.30 here and it is possible if some of these lesser lights don’t try to go with the lead group of 10 or 11. Run a measured event and take seconds off your PB. Second Aussie next, Ellie Pashley.