Jo72 wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
The expected differential between a runner's best 1500 time and their 3k time is about 15secs for each 1500. The numerical splits for Schweizer's 3k is 4.12xx for each 1500. That suggests she should be capable of around 3.57 for the 1500 (which is about right, since she beat a 3.55 runner). Her current best is 4.06 (and 4 27 for the mile).
That's for a 1500m runner, not a 5k/10k type. Even O'Sullivan had about 12 secs. (3:58.85 8:21.64, Radcliffe had 4:05 8:22, barely 6 seconds, but she was marathoner. Laura Weightman improved to a strong 8:26 at Prefontaine and has 4:00 14:44, 13 seconds. So I'd expect Schweizer to run about 4:00-02 in summer rather than 3:57.
This doesn't change the fact that her 3000m improvement was extraordinary.
If someone has a differential of less than 10secs between their best 1500 time and their splits in the 3k I would say they either never ran the 1500 to their full potential or were juiced to the gills. Interesting, that an example you gave of this is Radcliffe. If anyone can run a fast 3k off a slow 1500 base that is a red-flag. But flags are waving all over the place now.
Schweizer has to be capable of at least 4.00 to run the 3k time she has. That would be a very substantial improvement on 4.06.