Is Galen Rupp vulnerable on Saturday? Ed Eyestone thinks Jared Ward has a shot at beating him

round and round wrote:

helloworld111 wrote:

What makes Rupp a better talent? And or what does "talent" mean? I'm curious because this is a word that i see used over and over again on these boards.

Rupp ran a 13:37 5,000m in high school...

Same as in any pursuit. Genetic ability that you are born with.

I am by no means a Rupp fan but to think Ward can beat him is livin in lollipop land. Trying to beat him most likely would cause Ward to bonk and lose a chance at third. Rupp and Kiror are the only current world class marathoners in this race. The rest better focus on trying to “win third.”

I'm pretty sure Eyestone is just talking up his boy

erosion of society wrote:

Mostlytru wrote:

Ed sounds as if he is trying to be diplomatic regarding Alberto. The alternative explanation is that Ed is an idiot. I think the former. Korir has a better chance of beating Galen than Ward does of course Galen is no longer what he once was.

It shocks me to see how flippantly people refer to others as “idiot” on this forum. Do you even know Ed?

IF you could read, I did not refer to Ed as being an idiot. IF Ed believes what he said about Alberto, then he is an idiot. I am not at all sure that Ed believes what he said.

I agree and good for him. But what about the stomach comment? Why talk up your boy but plant the possibility of a performance-limiting problem. Anybody know what's up with Ward's dodgy tummy? I like Ed and I like Ward, although I don't think Jared has a chance of beating Rupp unless Rupp DNFs.

Baller wrote:

I'm pretty sure Eyestone is just talking up his boy

Bump! I have already said I don’t believe Rupp will Finish, and Ward is a good candidate to win with Rupp out of the picture.

Ward was 1:15 behind Rupp at Rio. If Ward is in BETTER shape and Rupp is in WORSE shape(and 2 years younger) why wouldn't he have a shot?

I'll be cheering for the guy who hasn't had a dirty coach since high school.

Drainthefecesswamp wrote:

It isnt "that" hard to get 6th when so many of the rest of the field going for the win or bust.

It really isn't that hard, is it? Shalane and Desi were 6/7, what scrubs. In 2012 Shalane was the top American in 12th, the loser. Cry-baby Kara was 13th, probably sobbing the last HM. Meb couldn't even medal that year. In 2008, Hall/Ritz finished 9/10 which really shows how pathetic they were. The top American woman that year finished 33rd. In 2004, Meb showed us how easy it is to get silver when you don't run for 1st. It's really sad Wardy couldn't get a silver, too. Even Deena managed to get a bronze that year. If you can't get a medal, do you even belong in the Olympics?

He has bubble-gut.

Er... wrote:

I agree and good for him. But what about the stomach comment? Why talk up your boy but plant the possibility of a performance-limiting problem. Anybody know what's up with Ward's dodgy tummy?

I like Ed and I like Ward, although I don't think Jared has a chance of beating Rupp unless Rupp DNFs.

Baller wrote:

I'm pretty sure Eyestone is just talking up his boy

runnER/DR wrote:

Ward was 1:15 behind Rupp at Rio. If Ward is in BETTER shape and Rupp is in WORSE shape(and 2 years younger) why wouldn't he have a shot?

Rio was a tactical race. Rupp was running with the top three and dealing with Kipchoge's surges in pace from 25k to the finish. Ward fell off the pace by 30k and had the luxury of running his race plan the last 12k. And Ward had lots of dying running to catch on his way in. Rupp was just holding on to Lilesa and trying to close that gap. So, the time difference really doesn't tell you anything.

Also, Rio was only Rupp's second marathon. After Rio, Rupp won Chicago and Prague, broke 60 in the half and dropped his marathon time by 4 minutes.

Ward is a great runner, but he has never done what Rupp has done. Ward has never won a marathon. Ward's marathon PR is over three minutes slower than Rupp. Ward has become a more consistent 2:09-10 marathoner, but his half PR is about what it was 5 years ago. Thus, there is really not much of a sign that Ward has made a bid breakthrough that will make him competitive with a healthy Rupp.

Could Ward beat Rupp? Absolutely.

Rupp only needs to finish third. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that he'd insist on winning the prelim (as I think he sees it).

runnER/DR wrote:

Ward was 1:15 behind Rupp at Rio. If Ward is in BETTER shape and Rupp is in WORSE shape(and 2 years younger) why wouldn't he have a shot?

Actually, it was 1:25. Most of this came when Rupp went with Kipchoge between 30k and 35k.

RunRaider wrote:

Could Ward beat Rupp? Absolutely.

Rupp only needs to finish third. I don't think it's a forgone conclusion that he'd insist on winning the prelim (as I think he sees it).

He did last time.

But Rupp isn't 100%. He just dropped out of Chicago a few months ago with a calf injury. He's obviously not injured now, but he's still not his usual self. The question is how much has that injured reduced the gap between him and Fauble/Ward.

runnER/DR wrote:...

But Rupp isn't 100%. He just dropped out of Chicago a few months ago with a calf injury. He's obviously not injured now, but he's still not his usual self. The question is how much has that injured reduced the gap between him and Fauble/Ward.

I don't think we can say whether or not he is his usual self, but we'll know by this time Saturday. The 61 low half marathon is a good indicator that things are all right actually. Surely he wasn't going for a world beating time, but more like something a bit faster than MP.

Here is something I genuinely do not understand why NOBODY is talking about, with regards to Galen:

He had surgery to repair his Achilles over a year ago. He endured a long rehab process that (based on his half) seems to have gone well toward rebuilding his fitness. However, he has raced TWICE post-op and the other time was a DNF at Chicago from what again?

That’s right, a calf strain. At Chicago. A pancake flat course.

The fact that this course is nothing but rolling hills WILL play a major factor (in a negative way, in my humble opinion) in Galen’s performance Saturday.

To fail to acknowledge that as a very likely outcome based on his last 12 months would be willful ignorance, at best, of the extent of his injury and potential issues that have followed (calf strain, etc).

I’m not saying he doesn’t have a chance or shouldn’t be a favorite for top-3, but this isn’t 2012 or 2016 Galen. This is 2020 Galen. And that Galen has raced twice on flat courses since surgery: one he DNF’d, and one he finished quite well... but still had 13.1 miles to go to equal the pounding that calf/Achilles will have this Saturday.

Ward, admirable as his performance in the "16 Trials was, is going to have to have made a lot of improvement!

Rupp will just have to show up and put down an adequate performance for him to win the Trial.

Ward was completely depleted and had to go to his knees for some time after "16. Rupp was up and bouncing around talking his head off. Fresh by comparison. Rupp's regular pace and effort was at that time completely superior to Ward.

I admire them both, but I don't think Ward even with improvement has the tools or the panache to match or better Mr. Rupp.

Rupp won’t finish +1

My gut says he’ll blow a gasket.