Jim Walmsley Olympic Marathon Trials Prediction Thread

There’s already a long thread where everyone has predicted, can it not be combined

Exactly. The thread should be deleted within 30 minutes.

Between 9th and 11th.

When the mods of the site can't even use the "Search" button of their own site....

For the third time ...

I think the field goes out in 66, Jim is there until ~34k when Rupp drops the pace down to about 445 and blows the group up. Jim might negatives split with a 65:30, run a nice 2:11:30, but not be able to respond and not be top 3. Actual place does not matter.

2:13:58, 23rd place

Good Guesser wrote:

2:13:58, 23rd place

2:13 will not be 23rd place. That would mean 23 people ran 2:13 or faster. Not gonna happen.

2:08:47

I think they described him well. And the other thread.

2:13 for top 10. Not in contention.

and 2nd place.

NotGonnaHappen wrote:

Good Guesser wrote:

2:13:58, 23rd place

2:13 will not be 23rd place. That would mean 23 people ran 2:13 or faster. Not gonna happen.

Return to this thread when you're wrong. And 2:13:58 for 23rd place just means 23 people run fater than 2:13:58, not faster than 2:13.

The weather this weekend is near perfect, and the hills are not going to effect times nearly as much as people are saying. Maybe 2 minutes compared to a flatter course (4-5 seconds per mile)... So let's say 2:13:58 is like 2:11:58 on Chicago... There were a dozen guys that did that this year. Then you add Korir and Rupp and Ward and Fauble and Abdi and many others that weren't at Chicago that could've done that as well. The pace will not go out slow because there are too many 'fast' people that could give Korir and Rupp and a handful of other guys a headache at the end.

It's only 50 foot elevation per mile, these guys have been purposely seeking out hills, look at their strava, they're still running pretty much the same paces in workouts as normal, just a few seconds slower. Five seconds per mile pace change is a lot for this caliber of runner.

Good Guesser wrote:

look at their strava, they're still running pretty much the same paces in workouts as normal...

Who are all of these runners, besides Walmsley, that are on strava? You mentioned "Korir and Rupp and Ward and Fauble and Abdi". Besides Fauble, where is the strava of these other guys that seems to have factored into your "guess"?

Walmsley gets 6th place in 2:12:59

Walmsley will keep up with the big boys until Half Marathon or so. When they pick up the pace in the second half, they will leave him standing there.

23th place 2:18ish

... and the Walmsley fanboys will go home devastated.

2:11:52 for 11th place.

5th in 2:11:42

Top 10 but not top 5, with his fanboys claiming it the best performance of the Trials.

Good Guesser wrote:

2:13:58, 23rd place

You are an idiot.

walter j wrote:

Good Guesser wrote:

2:13:58, 23rd place

You are an idiot.

I'm one of the Americans who has beaten Walmsley in his half marathon races he's done, and I'll be in the race. Everyone I talk to that's actually running and competitive thinks the hills will only slow times down a couple minutes. It's about 50/50 on people thinking a guy like Rupp/Korir could still run 2:09 this weekend. A lot of us are thinking the pace will go out fairly quick because the first 5k is downhill and some of the people at the front will want to just keep it rolling and everyone else will be forced to keep it rolling as well. The weather is looking like a complete non-factor. There are too many guys capable of 2:10-2:12 to keep it slow. A lot of guys will be coming in around 2:12/2:13 but you'll have to be faster than this to be top 3. Abdi and Ward ran 2:11/2:10 on New York this fall which is the middle ground between Atlanta's course and a flat one like Chicago.