It's hard to imagine that Kebenei and his coach, Scott Simmons, genuinely believe he has a legitimate chance to make the team. Far more likely, IMO, is that he's just going to serve as a pace-setter for Korir and drop out somewhere between mile 13-18. If this happens I would expect Rupp to latch on and everyone else to be resigned to a race for third. The fact that Simmons has declined to speak to the media also makes me think that something is up.
Can anyone recall if something like that has been done previously. Where someone blatantly paced the trials, seemingly for a teammate. Seems quite shady. Saladbar didn't even go that far for Rupp, and he's been known to bend the rules at times ?. I wouldn't think Korir would want a pacer, I'm sure he has an ounce of pride in him. Christ, they're all going to be wearing cheaterflys as it is, how about calling enough right there with the shenanigans.
Why would it be “shameful”? Literally anyone could go with the pacer as well.
Why doesn't he have a chance? He's been doing marathon training in Kenya for the past 2+ months training with dudes that are probably faster than the top Americans, doing 40 km runs, etc. Korir doesn't need help. How does being a pace setter help Korir more than anyone else that might want a fast pace? It would help him too.
Kebenei is a fast dude wrote:
Why doesn't he have a chance? He's been doing marathon training in Kenya for the past 2+ months training with dudes that are probably faster than the top Americans, doing 40 km runs, etc. Korir doesn't need help. How does being a pace setter help Korir more than anyone else that might want a fast pace? It would help him too.
Kebenei serving as a pacer could help Korir because:
1) Korir would be the only racer to enter the race with specific knowledge of Kebenei's plan to go out at XX pace.
2) Without a pace-setter, it's likely that the race would be slower on account of the hills and the lack of incentive for any of the serious contenders to make an early move. As a result, more athletes would be in the mix for a spot with ~10k to go, benefitting someone like Lagat. Alternatively, if Korir commits to running, say, 2:09 pace from the get-go, he might reasonably conclude that the Lagats of the world won't pose a threat to him.
3) Yes, Kebenei serving as a pacer could also help "anyone else that might want a fast pace," but how many other racers actually fall into that category? Anyone besides Rupp, Ward, and maybe Fauble? Who else has shown that they can run at their level? Providing some help to the favorites is a small price to pay to make it a 3-5 man race (or whatever). And I'm sure Korir is confident in his ability to outkick the likes of Ward and Fauble if they're all together with a few miles to go.
As for Kebenei's chances, assuming he's clean, I simply don't see a steeplechase specialist/marathon debutant finishing in the top three in this field. There are too many good, proven marathoners here.
Anyone with a real chance of top 3 would be happy with a fast pace to drop all the pretenders early. That's what happened in 2012.
There aren't many good proven marathoners in the US compared to Kenya, where this dude has been training. Rupp and Korir. I doubt Kenyans are worried about 2:09 runners like Ward and Fauble, so I don't think a talented Kenya American should be worried, even in their debut. If some random Kenyan runs 2:05, people aren't surprised. 8:08 steeplechase is serious talent. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes the team.
Kebenei is a fast dude wrote:
Anyone with a real chance of top 3 would be happy with a fast pace to drop all the pretenders early. That's what happened in 2012.
Exactly. Hence why it's entirely reasonable to think that Korir has enlisted Kebenei to pace him.
anacondarunner wrote:
Kebenei is a fast dude wrote:
Anyone with a real chance of top 3 would be happy with a fast pace to drop all the pretenders early. That's what happened in 2012.
Exactly. Hence why it's entirely reasonable to think that Korir has enlisted Kebenei to pace him.
No, he has talent and probably the training to think he as a reasonable chance to make the team, so he's not doing rabbit duties. If they go out fast together, they are sharing the pace. You aren't getting that Kebenei is more talented than anyone (not old) in the field except Korir and Rupp. He wouldn't need to train for the marathon as seriously as he has been doing if all he was planning to do was to be a pacer.
anacondarunner wrote:
As for Kebenei's chances, assuming he's clean, I simply don't see a steeplechase specialist/marathon debutant finishing in the top three in this field. There are too many good, proven marathoners here.
No Kenyans are clean. All East Africans dope.
Kebenei can definitely make the team, why would you think he can't? He has run one half marathon, it was a 61:57 at Pittsburgh on a very slow day. If he were to run on the Houston course last month he'd be more like 61 flat, which would put him ahead of all the other 'contenders' everyone is talking about aside from Korir and Rupp. He has run 46:39 on the Twin Cities 10 mile course, where the 10 mile championships are often held. What other runner in the field has run that fast on that course?
He is choosing to do the marathon, because he has a real shot at qualifying, and the steeple chase team is going to be very difficult. Jager is back, Hillary Bor was running great last year. Anthony Rotich, multi-NCAA steeple chase champion just gained his citizenship. Bayer is still no slouch. So his steeple spot is not a guarantee, and he has a real chance at making the marathon team. If Shadrack Kipchirchir were running the marathon he'd be a main contender as well, but he has the Olympic standard, one of only two americans with it, so he is pretty safe to make olympics in 10k.
That would be shameful wrote:
Can anyone recall if something like that has been done previously. Where someone blatantly paced the trials, seemingly for a teammate. Seems quite shady. Saladbar didn't even go that far for Rupp, and he's been known to bend the rules at times ?. I wouldn't think Korir would want a pacer, I'm sure he has an ounce of pride in him. Christ, they're all going to be wearing cheaterflys as it is, how about calling enough right there with the shenanigans.
This is a joke, right?
Why can't he make it? wrote:
Kebenei can definitely make the team, why would you think he can't? He has run one half marathon, it was a 61:57 at Pittsburgh on a very slow day. If he were to run on the Houston course last month he'd be more like 61 flat, which would put him ahead of all the other 'contenders' everyone is talking about aside from Korir and Rupp. He has run 46:39 on the Twin Cities 10 mile course, where the 10 mile championships are often held. What other runner in the field has run that fast on that course?
If half marathon and 10-mile credentials are going to play such a pivotal role in Saturday's results, I guess we should pencil in Ritz for a top-three spot.
Are you aware that they are training partners in Colorado Springs, when not at their camps in Kenya?
They have every right to strategize and maybe they’ve said “we feel like we can run a solid 2:09 on this course so that’s the pace we will go out at.”
There’s NOTHING stopping the other 200 competitors from running with them or doing the same....except talent and ability.
Kebenei is a drug cheat. Look back to his 8:08 and 5th at worlds year. Went to Kenya for a few weeks and sight seeing whole time.... comes back and makes team to get a real contract from Nike. 2018 he sucked, 2019 made team because Jager was out, now switching to marathon with hopes to make team because he is afraid to show up to track meets and get busted
anacondarunner wrote:
Why can't he make it? wrote:
Kebenei can definitely make the team, why would you think he can't? He has run one half marathon, it was a 61:57 at Pittsburgh on a very slow day. If he were to run on the Houston course last month he'd be more like 61 flat, which would put him ahead of all the other 'contenders' everyone is talking about aside from Korir and Rupp. He has run 46:39 on the Twin Cities 10 mile course, where the 10 mile championships are often held. What other runner in the field has run that fast on that course?
If half marathon and 10-mile credentials are going to play such a pivotal role in Saturday's results, I guess we should pencil in Ritz for a top-three spot.
I think it's funny how people think someone can't run a fast marathon simply because they've never run one, yet they have crushed every other distance through the half marathon.
Leonard Korir hadn't run one yet either before a few months ago. And he ran 2:07. Kebenei, even if a little worse, could easily be a 2:08/2:09 guy and be a legitimate #3 pick.
USADA HELP wrote:
Kebenei is a drug cheat. Look back to his 8:08 and 5th at worlds year. Went to Kenya for a few weeks and sight seeing whole time.... comes back and makes team to get a real contract from Nike. 2018 he sucked, 2019 made team because Jager was out, now switching to marathon with hopes to make team because he is afraid to show up to track meets and get busted
Moran, there is drug testing in Kenya. Why do you think there have been so many busts there? Americans in the whereabouts system visiting Kenya are still subject to testing when they are in Kenya.
Moran? You must be Stanley himself. The guy has the grammar of a 2 year old. Please do not call him “American”. Those around him in college time, know how he finagled citizenship.
Get a brain! You don't know the LR memes.
That would be shameful wrote:
Can anyone recall if something like that has been done previously. Where someone blatantly paced the trials, seemingly for a teammate. Seems quite shady. Saladbar didn't even go that far for Rupp, and he's been known to bend the rules at times ?. I wouldn't think Korir would want a pacer, I'm sure he has an ounce of pride in him. Christ, they're all going to be wearing cheaterflys as it is, how about calling enough right there with the shenanigans.
Didn’t Rupp pace Ritzenhein in the 10000m in 2012 because Ritz finished 4th in the marathon trials?
anacondarunner wrote:
It's hard to imagine that Kebenei and his coach, Scott Simmons, genuinely believe he has a legitimate chance to make the team. Far more likely, IMO, is that he's just going to serve as a pace-setter for Korir and drop out somewhere between mile 13-18. If this happens I would expect Rupp to latch on and everyone else to be resigned to a race for third. The fact that Simmons has declined to speak to the media also makes me think that something is up.
Korir has run 27:20 so he's one of the fastest track guys in the race. Why would he want a fast pace when he has the speed to qualify off of a slow one. He's not out there to run a PR.
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