So what's the strategy (for Rupp, Fauble, Ward, Korrir) to beat Jim Walmsley?

Abeneziel wrote:

maybe... wrote:

He opened it up. The commentators were saying 2min for the last 1k.

Lol , 2min would be the world record for 1k.

He ran in 2m35 and that's an very average finish in a not fast race. Bekele and top 5 000 runners can finish in 2:25 or even less if needed and in much faster race, not in 13:50.

Do you think Lagat is impressed by that?

Guess what? Bekele and "top 5000 Runners" who aren't coming back from Haglund's surgery are not in this race.

Someone like Walmsey's only hope of making the team is to be in huge pr shap (ie206-208) and run a dead even split race. This would slowly drop the field to just a few. The strategy against it is to simply kick at the end. If everyone lets someone like Rupp control it, it could be a tactical race which comes down to the last 10k, which favor the fastest half marathon runners and track guys.

ReplierToIdiots wrote:

Jim Walmsley Superfan wrote:

I know Jim's season is really geared towards the Comrades Marathon, but Walmsley is a gamer and he will be ready to race on Saturday. So how do they beat him?

.. show up

Good point. I hope Galen has a plan to avoid traffic. It’s Saturday, but I’ve heard it can get pretty backed up in Atlanta

puhleeease wrote:

Jim Walmsley Superfan wrote:

I know Jim's season is really geared towards the Comrades Marathon, but Walmsley is a gamer and he will be ready to race on Saturday. So how do they beat him?

Frankly, I don't think anyone in the field has a viable strategy to deal with Walmsley.

They take it out slow? Walmsley is really, really, really good at running slow, as he's shown the world again and again. 100 mile races? Hellooo? That is his world.

They go out fast? Well, guess what? Walmsley recently ran a 1:03 half marathon. 'nuff said.

Exactly, at this point Rupp, Korir etc are basically carping themselves because they know Walmsley is a superior runner.

spanishfly wrote:

Ran 1:03 at half means nothing while trying to maintain that pace another 13.1 miles. I ran 1:06 in the half and I thought I had Jesus grabbed by the balls and that I could easily run 2:15 or 2:16, at least in my mind. I was lucky to run 2:21 in the full distance. Easier said than done.

Did you run that half in the midst of several 140+ mile weeks without a taper?

Just because you struggled when moving up in distance doesn’t mean Jim will when moving down in distance.

If I were anybody not named Walmsley, Rupp, or Korir that could reasonably run sub-2:11 on a flat course, I would let him go on the first half and hope I could reel him in on the second half. I suspect Rupp and Korir won't be hurt by an early pace, and I think Walmsley has no choice but to set an early blazing pace if he wants a shot at making the team (i.e. I don't think he's going to close faster than some of the other guys who can run <2:11 on a flat course).

If Walmsley goes from the gun, it will be a real test for that 2nd pack to trust they can reel in the first pack AND outkick their peers running next to them. I predict one or two guys will probably not have the patience and try to go with the first pack - having a slow, miserable last 10k. For me Korir is an interesting question mark - his fast marathon was flat. Will the late hills challenge him, or is he strong enough that he will overcome? If the former is true, Walmsley maybe has an outside shot at holding off whoever is closing hard from the 2nd pack. However, I suspect Rupp and possibly Korir will gap him in that last 10k. So, if one person catches him from the second pack, he has no chance - and I think this is the most likely outcome.

And to be clear, I think Walmsley most likely gets caught by more than one guy in that 2nd pack - I predict he finishes no better than 9th. I'm just saying if he gets caught by a single guy in the 2nd pack after leading the first pack, he almost certainly won't make the team.

ShilohDoesntCare wrote:

Jim Walmsley Superfan wrote:

The real question is whether Walsmley is impressed by times Lagat ran 20 years ago. This is a marathon not a track race.

Not that I think Lagat will make the team but he won Peachtree outright as a masters runner only two years ago. Walmsley will never even top that in his career and it isn't even a footnote for Lagat. Dude we're talking about Lagat...I really can't wait for this race to be over with and all these fanboys can go home devastated.

To your last point, it's going to be the other way around..

#seeyainatl

I'm not Walms wrote:

And to be clear, I think Walmsley most likely gets caught by more than one guy in that 2nd pack - I predict he finishes no better than 9th. I'm just saying if he gets caught by a single guy in the 2nd pack after leading the first pack, he almost certainly won't make the team.

I don't think that he is even going to be in the leading group. The others start the race fast and not so many can keep up the pace. So they are going to bunk hard and Jim continues according to his plan and overtakes those runners who started to fast. Finally he finishes 3rd behind Rupp and Korir.

Not sure Jim has the wheels any more if it comes to speed in the last km. I ran faster than him in a track workout and I am old and not that fast...I ll root for him and CJ though, but only because I like dark horses...

tarckstar wrote:

There is exactly a .000003 percent chance that this will go out at 1:03.

So you're saying there's a chance....

spanishfly wrote:

puhleeease wrote:

Frankly, I don't think anyone in the field has a viable strategy to deal with Walmsley.

They take it out slow? Walmsley is really, really, really good at running slow, as he's shown the world again and again. 100 mile races? Hellooo? That is his world.

They go out fast? Well, guess what? Walmsley recently ran a 1:03 half marathon. 'nuff said.

Ran 1:03 at half means nothing while trying to maintain that pace another 13.1 miles. I ran 1:06 in the half and I thought I had Jesus grabbed by the balls and that I could easily run 2:15 or 2:16, at least in my mind. I was lucky to run 2:21 in the full distance. Easier said than done.

How many over distance records and wins did you have before that time you hit the wall?

There is no reason for Walmsley to have the confidence to believe he is a 2:08-09 marathoner capable of gapping the field with a hard early pace. If he does make such an attempt, there will be a high probability of a DNF or running the last 10K, or so, like he did after his 50 mile record. This isn't a 10000 against Mo and if he's strong enough to gap the field and hang on, he can wait until the 2nd half of the race to push the pace and qualify.

Maybe Walmsley fans will admire him for going for it, but a DNF will be definitive proof that he is a big fish in a small pond.

Keeping the course elevation profile in mind, you have to make sure that Jim is not in the picture at the 23 mile mark as it's predominately uphill over the last 5 k. The course sure looks to suit a guy like Walmsley.

I'm kind of rooting for Walmsley, his idiot fan boys will be insufferable next week if he makes the team. It will be quite entertaining. If he's a non-factor, I suspect the fan boys will mostly slink away with their tails between their legs to never be heard from again.

Go Jim Go wrote:

I'm kind of rooting for Walmsley, his idiot fan boys will be insufferable next week if he makes the team. It will be quite entertaining. If he's a non-factor, I suspect the fan boys will mostly slink away with their tails between their legs to never be heard from again.

Next week? If the he makes the team, there will be at least 5 years of threads describing his latest superhuman workout.

Jim is a good runner. Ultra marathons are cool. But let's be realistic. Top-20 would be a really good day. I hope he makes even more noise but, that alone, would be cool for the ultra community. This course is gonna run 2-3 minutes slower than a fast marathon course. Jim is a 1:03 guy with great endurance. He's gonna be hurting if this race goes out in 1:05. & he's gonna be hurting when the leaders surge at 20. I hope he's still in the pack. I just don't think he has the gear that a Rupp has from his Chicago win or Korir running 2:07-high after going out in 1:03 or Faubs/Ward running 2:09 at Boston.

Let's be realistic , LR posters ,of all people, should know that proof of marathon talent doesn't come down to one race.....a lot can happen , remember. I'm rooting for him, but it would be more interesting to see a commitment from him to prove that he can compete if his debut isn't what his fanboys are hoping for.

1) Walmsley

2) Korir

3) Rupp

You can take that to the bank.