Other than his high-level Walmsley enthusiasm, I agree with Logically Speaking. I don't know about winning, leading, making the team ( I think he either is in Jim's camp or a little too enthusiastic) but I DO think his logic is reasonably sound. Especially this post just above. Whenever you take 10 guys who have run 2:05, you don't end up with all 10 2:04 and under with a couple under the current WR. But before such races, people drool with the possibilities. Every single one setting a PR never happens. Every single one even finishing doesn't. A guy bails out a few days before, citing injury. Another perhaps should have, and his injury is obvious 5k in. This guy drops out. Another stays with the leaders and stops at 25k. Of the remaining, several break 2:07. A couple have decent showings and positive split 2:09. Once in a while, one goes on to break a course or even World record and once in a great while 2 guys are together late in fantastic times. I describe not a particular race but any big marathon any given year.
OK, translate the usual Berlin/Frankfurt/Rotterdam/Tokyo/Dubai/Amsterdam/Fukuoka scenario into American running. Replace 2:05 above with 2:10. Admittedly, the Trials is the only time that whole crowd will be in a single event, but the quality of the race is very rarely what everyone expects just looking at the resumes. Poster after poster on JW threads will point out dozens of qualifiers who are objectively seeded above our hero. Not untrue exactly, but if you have 17 guys who are surely ahead of him at the finish line, well, history tells us that 3 of them are injured and another 4 had significant setbacks in weeks leading up to the big day. So still, there are 10 guys. Or you may have another number, but the point is still relevant - there won't be 100% participation and most certainly not 100% of the group you're thinking about is at 100% fitness-wise.
A reporter asked Abdi several years ago when he wasn't that far off his prime about Boston. The question was to the effect of: 'What do you think about the 9 guys in the race who have run 2:06?'.
He answers 'Are they all going to run 2:06 tomorrow? '
This idea of 2;11 gets top-10 - barely - is ridiculous. Our hero may only pull a 2:14, but that's surely top-10 by my estimation. I'm not as gung-ho as many seem to be, but I just don't line up 5000 PRs and assume that's the finishing list. This guy ain't going to be 39th place!