Elaborating on the downhill point a little more, remember that it takes far less energy to go 10 sec/mile faster on a downhill than to go 10 sec/mile faster on an uphill, as long as your musculature can handle it.
Seems like a good strategy would be for him to surge a little on every downhill - he would get a "free" couple of seconds every mile since he can be confident that his quads will hold up.
I'm gonna go with 2:11:33 for 4th.
This "first marathon" concern is so overblown. There's a huge difference between some kid still moving up in distance since college whose longest race is a 13.1 moving to the marathon, and a guy like JW who is racing 50ks hard semi-regularly.
Of course there are demands specific to the marathon and it's going to feel a bit different, but this guy knows what it's like to hurt at mile 25 and how to manage that.
2:10:52 ...top 3.
dhls wrote:
Elaborating on the downhill point a little more, remember that it takes far less energy to go 10 sec/mile faster on a downhill than to go 10 sec/mile faster on an uphill, as long as your musculature can handle it.
Seems like a good strategy would be for him to surge a little on every downhill - he would get a "free" couple of seconds every mile since he can be confident that his quads will hold up.
I looked at a picture of him and his legs look normal for a distance runner. What makes his quads so special?
agreed wrote:
Walmsley will be no better on the uphills than anyone else. These hills are not mountains after all...where he would have an advantage. But down hill running requires at least one of the following 2 things: 1) Great down hill running technique and/or 2) bullet-proof quads. I guarantee Walmsley has number 2...you do not run the kind of massive downhill races on the terrain he does and not have those. He likely also has number 1 but don’t know that for sure. But you would be amazed at the number of good and great runners that do not run downhills well. If Walmsley runs everyone elses’s race he likely loses. If it comes down to a 10K race there are others in the race with much higher top ends. He should run to his strengths and forget about the pack and hope like hell they forget about him. And for all of you folks that say he has not run a marathon yet...who cares. He has blistered out out 50K runs/races like no tomorrow. Hell ultra guys/gals barely consider a 50K an ultra. That distance coves the bases on going to the pain cave and nutrition. It is a similar enough distance to understand how to run a marathon.
Exactly. It don't like this race is across the Grand Canyon.
All the current 16 sub 2:12 runners in the race have the huge advantage of race experience. Walmsley does not have that. If everything goes really well for Jim he might end up in the top 10. But in the top 3, never.
Ummmh
It's not like, this race is across the Grand Canyon.
I love all the "first marathon" comments, like Walmsley is some sort of scrub. He's an elite distance runner with world records to his name. He knows what to expect in a marathon.
If you're going to say lack of experience is a factor then you need to say in exactly what way, otherwise you're just one of those baroom notes trying to say something when you really have nothing to say. You think he can't pace the distance? Will screw up fueling? Tell us what you mean
runderun wrote:
I love all the "first marathon" comments, like Walmsley is some sort of scrub. He's an elite distance runner with world records to his name. He knows what to expect in a marathon.
If you're going to say lack of experience is a factor then you need to say in exactly what way, otherwise you're just one of those baroom notes trying to say something when you really have nothing to say. You think he can't pace the distance? Will screw up fueling? Tell us what you mean
Sounds like a bit of a straw man. I don't recall any posts discounting him because it will be his first marathon. Salazar, Steve Jones, Lasse Virin and many others did well in their first marathons.
Jim has plenty of race experience; marathon experience, no, but so what?
As was previously posted look at the marathon debuts of Hall and Rupp as well as the other successful Japanese debut marathoners whose training methods he is replicating.
He has plenty of chops to have chosen a conventional track/road route but chose the road less traveled.
The more I read about him the more I am impressed with his attitude, approach and humility.
A top 3 finish would not surprise me a bit.
SDSU Aztec wrote:
Sounds like a bit of a straw man. I don't recall any posts discounting him because it will be his first marathon. Salazar, Steve Jones, Lasse Virin and many others did well in their first marathons.
But they all came straight from the track and road racing, I would think.
Walmsley has done one HM on roads.
He has done two, RNR Half and Houston. His 50 Mile WB at 5:48 pace was on the road also.
Walmsley feels no pressure to make the team. Comrades and UTMB are his priorities. However, he is willing to sell some shoes for Hoka. The 50 mile world best was about selling shoes. His best races have had him going out hard and hanging on. That’s what he’ll try in Atlanta. He will push the pace and be at the front through 13.1 in 1:04:35 Maybe he hangs on, or maybe not, but he will shake up the race and get attention. Yes, even more than so far.
2:11:34 for 3rd.
It’s a 5 man race - Jim, Rupp, Ward, Korir and Fauble , I’m saying Jim finishes 2nd to Korir . Ward gets 3.
Hounddogharrier wrote:
It’s a 5 man race - Jim, Rupp, Ward, Korir and Fauble , I’m saying Jim finishes 2nd to Korir . Ward gets 3.
So are you discounting Rupp because of injury concerns? Because he seems like the surest bet in the field!
SDSU Aztec wrote:
dhls wrote:
Elaborating on the downhill point a little more, remember that it takes far less energy to go 10 sec/mile faster on a downhill than to go 10 sec/mile faster on an uphill, as long as your musculature can handle it.
Seems like a good strategy would be for him to surge a little on every downhill - he would get a "free" couple of seconds every mile since he can be confident that his quads will hold up.
I looked at a picture of him and his legs look normal for a distance runner. What makes his quads so special?
There is more to your muscle’s tolerance to downhills than what they look like. Run a downhill trail race with 19000 feet of climbing and 23000 feet of descent on rough terrain and you will find out the difference between muscle adaptations. I hear all the time elite runners complaining about their quads because of the downhills at Boston. If Boston downhills bother them they would not survive Western States.
Ben Rosario said he thought Walmsley is in 2:10 shape. I'll go with Korir 1st, Rupp 2nd, Walmsley 3rd in 2:11:57, Ward 4th 10 seconds back and Fauble 5th another 20 seconds back.
clueless prognosticator wrote:
Ben Rosario said he thought Walmsley is in 2:10 shape.
??? When/where did B. Rosario say that? Source?
Jim W. said he was in 2:10 in the podcast this week.
over and under wrote:
clueless prognosticator wrote:
Ben Rosario said he thought Walmsley is in 2:10 shape.
??? When/where did B. Rosario say that? Source?
I'll predict Jim W. runs 2:08:47
Correct.