Jim Walmsley OT marathon prediction thread!

11th, 2:14:38

MatthewXCountry wrote:

Great articles on Letrsun recently about Jim Walmsley. So let's start predicting his time at the OT marathon. My prediction

7th place in 2:12:00

In the past year, his qualifying half of 1:04 translates to 2:12:19. I think his absolute max ceiling is 2:08:20. That was his pace through 40k in this half marathon before he sped up 10 sec over the final 1.1k to hit the 1:04 standard. That would be incredible if he was able to maintain the pace before he sprinted in the half to the full marathon.

His PRs of

13:52 in 5k = 2:14:23

29:09 in 10k = 2:15:16

So I would have liked to see a bit faster of a 10k if he was really the slow twitch type why is his NCAA 10k worse than his 5k?

5ks tend to score better than 10ks for most people because you run a like 4 of them for each 10k. I am confidant that Ritz could have been a 26:50 type guy if he would have ran a 10k on that day instead of a 5000. But he never did.

He needs to run like 2:12:30 for like 6th place. That is something for everyone. He is 600m back of the elite guys but it is close enough that the fans can make excuses (new to the event, needs to focus on speed a bit more,...) for how their guy could have made the team.

2:08:45 for second after outright lead until 39k. Fauble DNFs. Ward struggles. Rupp hangs on for third. Korir wins in 2:08:30.

My prediction is that every prediction here indicating 10-15 coming in before 2:13 makes you unqualified to even speak.

2:12 top 3 but the Olympic games got cancelled for the coronavirus.

If his 64 flat translates to a 2:12 something, then what about the 40 other Americans who have run faster than him in the past year and a half? Or those 20+ sub 62:30 guys?

Realistically he's looking at 2:13/2:14 for 20th-30th place. That's being generous thinking he will translate a little better to the marathon than most people due to his ultra experience. In his two half marathons in the past 13 months he's been beat by about 18 different Americans, and tons of other Americans have run faster that weren't in those two races.

We'll all see soon enough.

You already know my answer.

2:13:27 for 16th place.

1:59

Kipchoge is gonna be pissed.

But oddly it'll only be good enough for 2nd place.

DNS. I predict his flight is cancelled so he misses the trials.

MatthewXCountry wrote:

Great articles on Letrsun recently about Jim Walmsley. So let's start predicting his time at the OT marathon. My prediction

7th place in 2:12:00

In the past year, his qualifying half of 1:04 translates to 2:12:19. I think his absolute max ceiling is 2:08:20. That was his pace through 40k in this half marathon before he sped up 10 sec over the final 1.1k to hit the 1:04 standard. That would be incredible if he was able to maintain the pace before he sprinted in the half to the full marathon.

His PRs of

13:52 in 5k = 2:14:23

29:09 in 10k = 2:15:16

So I would have liked to see a bit faster of a 10k if he was really the slow twitch type why is his NCAA 10k worse than his 5k?

Realistically, I believe he is somewhere between high 2:11-low 2:13 road marathon shape. It's so hard to predict what will happen in the top 10, who will blow up and who will hang on, and who DNF's. 2:10:anything would be an out of this world performance for his 1st marathon, I am sure we'd all love to see it, but I don't believe on the first go he'll crack that.

I do believe some in the front will push harder to hold off any late surge from him past the HM mark and that could be part of his racing strategy.

I know racing 100 miles isn't a road marathon, but JW legit raced this past year's Western States with Jared Hazen surging the entire race. Put that into perspective, racing 100 MILES. That's a whole different realm of focus. I am curious to see how those tactics play out in a road marathon. The haters will say it has no equivalency, anybody with any sense of logic will say it's a zone no other racer lining up in Atlanta can fathom.

So my final answer is 2:12:28

2:15:XX

2:11:53

3rd place

1- Rupp 2:10:23

2- Ward 2:11:06

3- Korir 2:11:33

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.

.

12- JW 2:14:12

A group of about 15-20 runners hits the first half in 1:06 flat. Each mile after this a runner drops back. Around 20 miles Rupp makes his move and only a few follow. Ward and Korir try to hang on to Rupp until about 22 miles but it’s too much for them. Rupp jogs in the last mile. A big group finishes between 2:12-2:15.

Keep in mind only 3 runners in LA ran a negative split. Those 3 runners ended up making the team.

Top 10, not top 5, and fanboys try to sell it as the beat performance of anyone at the trials.

3 more walmsley threads within 24 hours.

jesus.

Coffee Bacon wrote:

...racing 100 MILES. That's a whole different realm of focus. I am curious to see how those tactics play out in a road marathon. The haters will say it has no equivalency, anybody with any sense of logic will say it's a zone no other racer lining up in Atlanta can fathom.

Couldn’t those with significantly faster half marathon (and marathon) efforts say that he couldn’t fathom the zone that they’ve been through before? You know... the actual ‘zone’ that they’re racing at the trials...

I don't feel there is a middle ground with this prediction. He's either running a top 10 finish in sub 212 or he is going to disappoint with a 218.

I'm going to predict 2:11:45, around 5th place. He will be with leaders half way in 66:15, and lose contact when Rupp moves near 35k. He'll run well but look like he is falling apart because Rupp is going to put a minute into him over the next 7k. With a 65:30 second half, he will hit that 2:11:45.

2:30, permanent ban from all USATF sanctioned events.

Can the runners take a hot coffee and donut break halfway through the race?