Jim Walmsley: "I'd like to think I'm around 2:10 shape..I've legitimately put in the training and the work to contend up front."

my 2c wrote:

Interesting stuff. But this part does not compute:

“biggest” workout of his entire marathon training block — eight miles at marathon pace followed by one mile at threshold pace for recovery, times two.

By what definition is threshold pace slower than marathon pace? I know it can vary, but isn't it usually in the 15K-HM range? On it's own, 8 MP + 1 float recovery + 8 MP + 1 float recovery sounds like a challenging workout, but by no means impossible. On the other hand, 8 MP + 1 T + 8 MP + 1 T could get ugly real quick, if T is the standard tempo pace.

The word "threshold" (along with "tempo") is one of the most bastardized words in all of running training terminology. Can mean different things to different people. Who knows what he meant with that for sure.

Also, he could have misspoken and intended a different word. It happens in interviews sometimes when you're speaking off the cuff. Whenever anybody is talking about workouts, I take what they are saying with a grain of salt if they don't mention actual numeric paces.

Exactly those times suggest more of a 2:12 on a flat course in good conditions. Atlanta ain’t flat so I predict 2:15

We know Jim is comfortable racing from the front, instead of allowing the sit-and-kick runners to dictate the pace is there an alternative tactic he could employ?

If he just goes out at 2:10 pace on this course from the gun would that mix things up and give him a shot? Given the hills are less of an issue for him and I think some of the other runners would be nervous to go in too deep early on.

Last time Jim ran a USATF national championship event I believe he was 42nd place:https://www.flotrack.org/results/5996857-2015-usatf-cross-country-championships/3160 For such a super talent in ultra trail running he sure was a slow starter. Most real talents are very good off of minimal trainings even. Remember when he was only running 5:56 and 5:47 at the JFK50 miler?https://ultrasignup.com/results_participant.aspx?fname=Jim&lname=Walmsley This guy seemed to improve like crazy out of nowwhere circa 2016

lalalala wrote:

Exactly those times suggest more of a 2:12 on a flat course in good conditions. Atlanta ain’t flat so I predict 2:15

Top 10 at the very best for this guy. More like top 20.

Walmsley thinks he will have a 20% advantage with his new Hoka Trail dragger shoe. It will be interesting who that will pan out.

tally wrote:

The most pertinent data we have are his road half marathons.

Last month in Tempe, he ran 1:03:10, adjusting for the course mis-measurement, and finished seventh place.

Last year, he ran 1:04:00 at Houston.

Those times do not suggest 2:10:00.

Nothing at all against the guy, but this is a show me sport.

As a marketing ploy, not running a marathon before the trials is, I will concede, a smart move, because it keeps up the suspense and intrigue.

Is it possible that perhaps his ultramarathoning background makes it difficult to predict his marathon potential? Let us not forget that every runner has different strengths and weaknesses. Clearly Walmsley's endurance is incredible.

Buzz kill wrote:

Walmsley thinks he will have a 20% advantage with his new Hoka Trail dragger shoe. It will be interesting who that will pan out.

Markedly false. Reread the article please

I say he finishes mid pack: 40-60 percentile.

If he runs inside the top 20 I’ll be impressed.

GoJimGo wrote:

We know Jim is comfortable racing from the front, instead of allowing the sit-and-kick runners to dictate the pace is there an alternative tactic he could employ?

If he just goes out at 2:10 pace on this course from the gun would that mix things up and give him a shot? Given the hills are less of an issue for him and I think some of the other runners would be nervous to go in too deep early on.

I posted in another thread, but I'll recap. I do think Jim could probably run an even paced 2:10. The problem is, the race isn't playing out that way.

1) If the pace is in the range of 66 at half, which I believe it will be, then somewhere between 30 and 35k, Rupp will drop the pace from ~5 to 445 or even faster, and Jim isn't responding to that sort of change when the lead pack had been used to running 212 pace. If he tries, I worry that there will be an epic blow up by 40k.

2) If Jim tries to front run in the beginning, he won't even be in the group by 35k.

The best case is probably the pack going out in 66, and Jim letting the surge go (unless he is feeling really good), and settle on a 65 second half. If he can manage a 64:30 second half, I think he could possibly take the 3rd spot.

I suppose something crazy could happen and the leaders go out sub 65 for the half, and in that case, Jim should probably try to solo that 2:10 he thinks he is in shape for.

In the case of an unusually slow day, like 67 or even slower, than I really don't know how to handicap that. There are a bunch of 2:12-2:14 guys that would probably love that to be the case, and then to hope for a magical day on the backside.

I am a Walmsley fan boy though, so maybe I'm just nuts.

birdbeard wrote:

hollup wrote:

So people can wear AlphaFlys at the Trials? That's f**ked. Kinda defeats the whole point of the ruling.

The point of the ruling was to indefinitely prohibit shoes with more than 1 carbon fiber plate and a higher than 40mm stack height. The rumors about the Kipchoge prototype were that the shoe had 3 CF plates and a near 50mm stack height. The new Alphafly is within the World Athletics guidelines. People will be able to wear them at the Olympics too, and into the future unless the rules change. They will not be able to wear the 50mm, 3 plate prototypes.

Any company could make a prototype like the Alphafly NEXT% and have their runners in them in the trials.

Yes and No.

Any company could make shoes following the new rules.

But compagnies can and will continue to fill patent to protect their ideas and industrial advantages.

It doesn't mean they can't try to get close, but like any other industry, patent battles are key to protect your business. Especially when your as big as Nike...

Oh Please wrote:

I am a Walmsley fan boy though, so maybe I'm just nuts.

You are nuts but that's okay! We are a excepting bunch here.

hollup wrote:

So people can wear AlphaFlys at the Trials? That's f**ked. Kinda defeats the whole point of the ruling.

No. Nobody cares about trials. The ruling was set for the Olympics and for the major marathons, not for some kind of a village run where you choose who is allowed to run the Olympic Marathon.

Patent limits wrote:

Yes and No.

Any company could make shoes following the new rules.

But compagnies can and will continue to fill patent to protect their ideas and industrial advantages.

It doesn't mean they can't try to get close, but like any other industry, patent battles are key to protect your business. Especially when your as big as Nike...

Patents can be licensed and companies can earn money by doing it. If for example the shape of the carbon fiber plate was the reason why Nike did so well, then WA might change rules again because they said that they are going to continue to monitor the situation.

Swedish Pride wrote:ce. Will he have any impact on the sport of marathon running, will he ever be remembered as a prominent olympic long distance athlete? Zero chance.

What if they add the ultra to the Olympics? I’d love to see that as then we’d get too Africans in it and see how they compare.

There is already an ultra in the olympics...

rojo wrote:

Swedish Pride wrote:ce. Will he have any impact on the sport of marathon running, will he ever be remembered as a prominent olympic long distance athlete? Zero chance.

What if they add the ultra to the Olympics? I’d love to see that as then we’d get too Africans in it and see how they compare.

Right on. Supposedly they are trying to add the trail 100km as a demonstration event for Paris 2024, but I don't know what the changes are it will succeed.

Add and ultra and dump race walking please.

rojo wrote:

Swedish Pride wrote:ce. Will he have any impact on the sport of marathon running, will he ever be remembered as a prominent olympic long distance athlete? Zero chance.

What if they add the ultra to the Olympics? I’d love to see that as then we’d get too Africans in it and see how they compare.

That would probably make ultra running more competitive as a whole and generally elevate the event. Not sure it would be to Walsmsley''s benefit though ...

But we know that won't happen, World Athletics is at war against long distance events, and broadcasters hate events longer than 1500m.