If you knew a little more about China and the Spanish Flu Influenza outbreak of 1918/1919 you would be worried. In China the vast majority of factory workers travel home for Chinese New Year which means you have hundreds of millions of people going through crowded trains, buses and other forms of transport during a brief few day period at the start and end of the New Year. There is nothing that compares to this mass migration of people in the US or Europe. This creates the perfect conditions for an illness to spread very quickly across a population of more than 1 billion people. The mortality rate at present is only 2% or 3% right now but it is 2% or 3% of a very large number. The Spanish Flu killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million people (10% mortality rate) and today people move around the world far, far more than they did in 1918. The other fact you need to consider is that the Chinese government sometimes manipulates information like GPD rates in the interest of showing steady progress and the current Premier in China has clamped down on the free flow of information to an extent not seen since China began to open to the West. If you don't believe me try to look up "Tianamen Square massacre" from your Shanghai hotel room on a search engine. It is entirely possible that deaths in China are grossly under-reported. I'm a global supply chain leader with a team in China and nothing is moving in or out of the country right now. Let's all hope that the media has blown this out of proportion but just because medicine has advanced 10X or 100X since 1918 does not guarantee that we could not have a global pandemic
曾錚 Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd
Here is the official doc. pls do a google translation and then you get the main idea:
https://ln.qq.com/a/20200206/002jeremy young
it’s the regulations for the Liaoning lockdown. As of yesterday, the entire province of Liaoning, some 43 million people, were required to disinfect all areas at least twice a day, not hoard food, report strangers, not have relatives stay in their house, report the infected, and to spend 14 days in quarantine if they leave their village or city block, etc
https://twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1225654487563399168Harry Chen PhD
@IsChinar
It's normal, is the most common phrase heard as the government fences off cities
Good job boys!
The 1918 Spanish flu pandemic (Killed 50-100 million people) had a case fatality rate of approx 2% vs a typical flu season of 0.1%. Both spread quickly. By comparison, H1N1 swine flu had a low case fatality rate but spread very quickly. SARS had a high case fatality rate of 10% but very little spread. The current 2019nCoV looks like the Spanish flu with a case fatality rate of 2-4% and rapid spreading. A significant number of people who have bad enough disease to necessitate hospitalization (approx 30%) end up in the intensive care unit and require interventions to assist w their breathing.
Conclusion: 2019-nCoV is like Spanish flu. There is a reason to be concerned.
masa harassa wrote:
The current 2019nCoV looks like the Spanish flu with a case fatality rate of 2-4% and rapid spreading.
Nope.
Fatalities are about 2% ONLY in the originating Hubei province, and dropping.
Out of 9400 confirmed cases elsewhere, only 20 deaths, or 0.2%.
Outside China, of 317 cases, only 1 death. 0.3%.
Every bit the picture of a disease that has been contained.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6Link? You can check the recent JAMA article and Dr. Fauci's recent interview to hear up-to-date, scientifically-evaluated estimates on the case fatality rate. Or, you could go by the bogus numbers and statements being released by China. Feel free to continue to deny the very obvious fact this is not a normal seasonal flu virus.
Trusting the numbers out of China is extremely naive. Words lie, actions don't. A country with a billion people and a nasty history of human rights abuses against it's own citizens doesn't shut down b/c of 600 deaths. Nor does it implement one of the largest quarantines in history or institute mandatory cremations without funeral.
Risk is in the future. Real facts come later (usually when it's too late). If you don't understand multiplicative processes please STFU and knock off the empiricist nonsense.
sip sip hooray! wrote:
Link? You can check the recent JAMA article and Dr. Fauci's recent interview to hear up-to-date, scientifically-evaluated estimates on the case fatality rate. Or, you could go by the bogus numbers and statements being released by China. Feel free to continue to deny the very obvious fact this is not a normal seasonal flu virus.
He gave you the link. Look at the "Total Recovered" number. 699 of the 719 deaths were in the Hubei Mainland China region where it all started There are only 20 deaths outside that region. The 2,011 that recovered, are those that are known to have recovered and does not count those that were asymptomatic or those that self treated. Even in the "deadliest" region, 115 are known to have have recovered from the virus. Outside of Hubei, 896 have recovered compared to 20 deaths, with those deaths consisting primarily of elderly, previous ill people. This does not suggest the "killer virus" that the media is pitching.
Facts Matter!
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6Facts Matter wrote:
sip sip hooray! wrote:
Link? You can check the recent JAMA article and Dr. Fauci's recent interview to hear up-to-date, scientifically-evaluated estimates on the case fatality rate. Or, you could go by the bogus numbers and statements being released by China. Feel free to continue to deny the very obvious fact this is not a normal seasonal flu virus.
He gave you the link. Look at the "Total Recovered" number. 699 of the 719 deaths were in the Hubei Mainland China region where it all started There are only 20 deaths outside that region. The 2,011 that recovered, are those that are known to have recovered and does not count those that were asymptomatic or those that self treated. Even in the "deadliest" region, 115 are known to have have recovered from the virus. Outside of Hubei, 896 have recovered compared to 20 deaths, with those deaths consisting primarily of elderly, previous ill people. This does not suggest the "killer virus" that the media is pitching.
Facts Matter!
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Should read - "Even in the "deadliest" region, 1115 are known to have have recovered from the virus."
Facts Matter wrote:
He gave you the link. Look at the "Total Recovered" number. 699 of the 719 deaths were in the Hubei Mainland China region where it all started There are only 20 deaths outside that region. The 2,011 that recovered, are those that are known to have recovered and does not count those that were asymptomatic or those that self treated. Even in the "deadliest" region, 115 are known to have have recovered from the virus. Outside of Hubei, 896 have recovered compared to 20 deaths, with those deaths consisting primarily of elderly, previous ill people. This does not suggest the "killer virus" that the media is pitching.
Facts Matter!
Here's how consolidated mainstream media has become by 4 or 5 corporations.
https://nullvideo.com/user/chovy/iAjjQxSAs far as your figures, figures don't lie, but liars do figures also, and governments and corporations lie, a lot.
Isn't the real risk in the hospitals becoming overwhelmed because of rapid spread? If they become overwhelmed then people who might have otherwise survived might not. That's the biggest risk imo.
One thing that that seems to be not covered much is that this is in a completely different virus category than an influenza. Other diseases in the corona category include the common cold, SARS, and MERS. Notice there is no cure or effective vaccine for any of these. In fact, I understand that once you are recovered, you can get sick again - no built up immunity.
Imagine the common cold with a 3 percent death rate and no cure or vaccine and where almost everyone will eventually get it. I think it needs to be taken very seriously.
sip sip hooray! wrote:
the bogus numbers and statements being released by China.
Did China fake the data from other countries showing 1 death out of 300?
Do any of these China-accusers have empirical data of their own, like they're there in all the hospitals recording everything? No, they're making things up with predictive math.
ABC News' Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton asked the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease about concerns that stem from misinformation online that the novel coronavirus could have been engineered or deliberately released.
"There's always that concern," Dr. Anthony Fauci said. "And one of the things that people are doing right now is very carefully looking at sequences to see if there's even any possibility much less likelihood that that's going on. And you could ultimately determine that. So people are looking at it, but right now, the focus is on what are we going to do about what we have."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-asks-scientists-investigate-origins-coronavirus/story?id=68807304Chinese authorities have launched a full-scale crusade to disprove the idea that this deadly virus was man-made.
http://www.caixin.com/2020-02-05/101511817.html"Conspiracy theorists don't believe in science. I hope that the national professional department will investigate and give us an innocence," Shi Zhengli, a director at the Wuhan Institute of Virology - the only P4 level biosafety laboratory in China - responded to Caixin on February 4.
translated: Fauci speculated about wild hypotheses but admitted only people with actual patients have any facts. Yawn.
Bad Wigins wrote:
sip sip hooray! wrote:
the bogus numbers and statements being released by China.
Did China fake the data from other countries showing 1 death out of 300?
Do any of these China-accusers have empirical data of their own, like they're there in all the hospitals recording everything? No, they're making things up with predictive math.
THIS is the nasty naive empiricism I'm referring to. Stop looking for risk in the data you have and understand that the actual risks lie in the future.
Unpredictability has actually increased as more is learned about the virus and we have not taken the potential threat seriously enough.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.htmlTo those who doubt seriousness, ask yourself: what do I lose if I'm wrong and what do I gain if I'm right?
Many people on this thread don't understand anything about this virus...
First, let’s look at the bright side. People saying this virus is somehow spreading “racism” are ironically kinda right. Except it’s the virus itself that is “racist,” not the ppl talking about it. As of now, it appears the virus is mostly fatal to Asians due to some ACE2 receptor expression:
http://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985
Barring seriously bad mutations, non-Asians will likely experience really bad flu and pneumonia-like symptoms, with the old and immune-compromised obviously most at risk…. However, the fatality rates should be significantly diminished compared to those of Asians (hopefully)
Now let’s talk about the reaally scary stuff...
First off, we all know China is far from transparent and honest. The CCP is vastly under-reporting the numbers (
https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1223822006132494336
). Whatever they say, it’s probably 10 - 100x that, easy.
It’s almost out of a horror movie, people dropping dead in the streets, bodies piling up in hospitals (
https://nypost.com/…/coronavirus-outbreak-video-shows-dead…/
), body bags being lined up in local parks (
https://twitter.com/a524952/status/1223008115936772098
), cities on lock-down totally lifeless, paramilitary blocking people from leaving (
https://www.infowars.com/largest-quarantine-in-world-histo…/
) and whole apartment complexes being sprayed down with disinfectant.
I’d think it was all fake or grossly exaggerated if it weren’t for the fact that the Big Tech Authoritarian Technocrats are working hard to censor and suppress ‘conspiracies’ about the China situation being far worse than represented (
https://about.fb.com/news/2020/01/coronavirus/&hellip
;). They are working hand-in-hand to suppress the pleas and cries of doctors and citizens in China, who almost unanimously say the CCP is outright lying about the extent of the outbreak. People are even getting arrested for their ‘conspiracies’:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/…/china-accused-coronavirus-arres…/
In reality, it’s gotten totally out of hand. They can’t treat most of the infected, so the best bet is to quarantine them, which is why many of the sick and dying are being welded shut into their residences (
https://twitter.com/MgOqkzLBRPLC…/status/1223409590739460097
) and wired into quarantine (
https://twitter.com/MgOqkzLBRPLC…/status/1223409818544693248
).
Not to mention, hospitals have no real ability to test but a small percentage of infected (
), leading to painfully slow response times (
).
Given the incredible stress on hospitals (
https://twitter.com/a524952/status/1222498904362692608
), new ‘hospitals’ are going up quickly in China, except they’re not hospitals, they’re quarantine zones:
https://twitter.com/sotiridi/status/1223933785693130752
All the while, the dead continue to pile up, as Chinese authorities secretly rush droves of bodies to crematoriums, which are struggling to keep up:
. After all, burial is “not an option” -
Again, the official numbers are bogus. In Wuhan alone, the epicenter of the outbreak, estimates are that only 5% of coronavirus cases have been confirmed! (
https://www.medrxiv.org/conte…/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2
)
This is likely due to either an accidental or intentional leak from a lab specifically created to study the world’s deadliest viruses, the only site of its kind in China! (
). Some have even found that the coronavirus is like an airborne version of HIV, with China using HIV drugs to treat the infected… (
https://twitter.com/cnnphilippin…/status/1222405133448839169
and
https://www.biorxiv.org/…/10.1…/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf
).
The coronavirus is a chimera virus – a BIOWEAPON. Whether it was released on purpose or is some kind of “Chinese Chernobyl” remains to be seen...
The main issue with the coronavirus is that we just don’t know. It’s got an R0: ~4, (
https://www.medrxiv.org/…/10…/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf
) so every one person affects 4 people. To make matters worse, people can be asymptomatic for 14 days while they infect others. By this point, it’s global. The number of reported cases already beats that of SARS (
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51322733
), and we know that the numbers coming out of China are orders of magnitude lower than the real totals.
Some studies even put the mortality rate as high as 20%, but it’s tough to tell because so many go undiagnosed or take up to a couple months to reach the fatal stage.
All we really know for sure about coronavirus is that it’s been a nightmare for the genetically susceptible Chinese. A country as populated and powerful as China doesn’t shut down 21 provinces and almost 100 million people, risking 80% of GDP and 90% of exports (
https://www.cnbc.com/…/coronavirus-more-of-china-extend-shu&hellip
;) , for “the flu” lol
Coronavirus might not be the life-ending pandemic doomsayers make it seem, but if you think it’s just another run-of-the-mill “flu,” you should get informed!
Scarey stuff you posted there. ? One in thing I don't understand though when you said "Coronavirus might not be the life-ending pandemic doomsayers make it seem, but if you think it’s just another run-of-the-mill “flu,” you should get informed!"
If this was a bioengineered influenza virus as part of the Chinese bio warfare program, wouldn't it be a highly deadly pathogen? Isn't the whole idea of a bio warfare program to designed something so deadly that it would completely annihilate and neutralize your opponent in war that they're either too sick or dying to mount any kind of defense?
Also, can the CDC design a vaccine specific to this particular coronavirus and vaccinate against this?
But isn't it possible he just had HIV already and didn't know? 1 positive HIV test out of 34k is pretty poor proof.