The coronavirus panic proves how easily manipulated people are and how the media sensationalizes everything

Not sure why you're using Coronavirus as an example. You don't have to go that far. Just look at how predictions of snowfall in the Midwest are getting out of control.

Facts Matter wrote:

Fact:

Since the outbreak began at the beginning of December, 2019, as of January 29, 2020 - 170 people have died from the virus.

Fact:

According to the CDC, during the 21 week long 2018/2019 influenza season, there were 35.5 MILLION people sickened by the flu and 34,200 deaths. That's 232 influenza deaths EVERY * SINGLE * DAY!

The flu is exponentially more contagious than the coronavirus yet no one panics. There is already a vaccine and people refuse to get it. So far for the 2020 flu season, there have been 8,200 deaths and 140,000 hospitalizations. Contrast that with the 6000 cases of the coronavirus and 170 deaths and simply put...

... you all make no sense at all!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Have fun in Wuhan, commie.

mjohnson5 wrote:

Thanks....with 43,000 estimated on Jan 25, it looks like the 6-day doubling-time estimate is holding up.

Are you seriously implying someone's estimate confirms someone else's estimate?

Something you don't have to estimate is the number of deaths, so even if these estimates are correct, it only means the virus is even less deadly.

Facts Matter wrote:

The flu is exponentially more contagious than the coronavirus yet no one panics.

The contagiousness and overall incidence of a virus are two wholly separate things. The reason for outcry regarding this strain of coronavirus is its novelty. Epidemiologists have not had the same opportunity to study its behavior, morbidity, and mortality as they have for the flu.

You mentioned the flu vaccine: Many people get it. It is usually a guess as to potential upcoming strains of the flu, and as such it is ~40% (some estimates as high as 60%) accurate. It is useful on a population basis but it may not (will not) help every individual who gets it.

It’s the American way - rather than plan & prevent we would rather react & panic. It makes for better tv ratings

Most people are clueless and drinking the cool aid offered up by the media and global governments. The medical establishment is slowly but logically and painstakingly collecting data and releasing the information. The story is unraveling and looking more and more sinister. Look at the cold, hard facts with an unbiased eye. Consider all theories.

Perspective matters wrote:

Look at the cold, hard facts with an unbiased eye. Consider all theories.

This. The new numbers from Japan are very telling. Up to 20 from 11 in a week. We'll get the best indication where this is going from Japan, IMO.

IMO, they should ban all flights from Vancouver and Toronto immediately. Canada is not taking this seriously by recent comments and actions.

Bad Wigins wrote:

....

Now someone pop off about 4100 being a small sample size.

Still no deaths outside of China, out of 142 confirmed cases.

...

Who said that? I said 112 was a small sample size, NOT 4100. Also, your method of calculating death rate is incorrect. And more recent cases outside with the incubation period delay so you can't compare. LRC doesn't have an ignore function, but you are on virtual ignore, since you twist people's words.

If you've seen the video of the man who drops dead in the street, then the authorities come in full hazmat suits, take the body away, and then disinfect the entire street, then you know how the Chinese are treating even the potential exposure to this virus. I'd say this is something unprecented in modern history coming our way.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7951059/Man-lies-dead-streets-coronavirus-ground-zero-Wuhan.html

Stats Major wrote:

I said 112 was a small sample size,

And you were wrong. Go ask your stats prof if 112 is insignificant in a medical context. Countless studies work with far less than that.

And it's no "twist on words" to point out how you isolated that one stratum from the greater context of only 10 deaths out of 4000 in the non-Hubei stratum, blatantly biasing your analysis. Cherry picking.

It's now 0 for 167 outside China, and 10 for 4937 outside Hubei. Deaths per confirmed case remains about 3% in Hubei but has dropped to 0.20% everywhere else, and still 0.0% outside China. Overall it's getting close to only 2%. You can ignore that obvious trend if you want, but others won't and you'll look like an idiot. Plainly it's deadly in Hubei and not elsewhere, and instead of denying that you should be trying to figure out why.

some possibilities:

1) Hubei medics weren't prepared initially, but medics everywhere are prepared now.

2) The virus mutates quickly and already made itself less deadly by the time it spread.

3) The virus only hates people from Hubei.

in any case, it's clear that after 5000 confirmed cases and only 10 deaths, the non-Hubei world is not facing the doom some people seem to hope for. Relax.

Jesus everloving Christ what in the hell are you talking about?

We are 2-3 weeks into a novel pathogen and know nothing about transmission or severity. What we DO know is the initial outbreak has touched more people in 2 weeks than SARS did in 8 months. 2,700 cases last week and we crossed 14,000 today. I'd say there's reason for concern, especially given the long incubation coupled with late response of restricting travel, not to mention the lag problem-- 3-14 days between acquiring virus and symptoms and another 5-10 between hospitalization and death. So comparing death rates today to infection numbers is useless. The best you can do (and it's piss poor at that) is compare today's deaths to infection rates a week ago. But again--it's mostly mental masturbation b/c there remains a high degree of uncertainty and numbers are not yet meaningful. We've slowed from exponential growth (good thing) but it's still in a multiplicative phase.

Anecdotally there's some scary footage coming out of China. Tough to know what's what but I've seen over a dozen in the past 2 days so certainly something to keep an eye on.

It's basic risk management. Yes, there's a 99% chance coronovirus will just be another "bad flu season." But it's wise to prepare for the other 1% chance it's an endemic

This could eventually be a test of anti-vaxxers will.

Told you so!

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/coronavirus-victims-wuhan.html

Yes, Dr. Drew, it is the media misreporting that is causing alarms, and NOT how China is willingly to lock down cities with populations of 11 million or more, multiple provinces, losing billions daily, with about 80% of their GDP going offline, as if it was an escaped bioweapon, and not as if it were some mild cold that has killed a mere 500 people.

You going to believe Dr. Dingleberry Drew or Dr. Fauci the head of NIH. Yesterday, in a discussion forum with JAMA, it was confirmed that indeed this virus is causing rapid disease progression and sudden death in otherwise healthy individuals. The footage of people falling over and collapsing in markets, streets, hospital corridors is authentic. It is not known how and why the disease progresses so rapidly in some such that you may be fine in the morning (asymptomatic) but on death's door in the evening. It was likened to the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic - similar reports of otherwise healthy individuals collapsing and dying with no prior syndrome.

Zak wrote:

Not sure why you're using Coronavirus as an example. You don't have to go that far. Just look at how predictions of snowfall in the Midwest are getting out of control.

Yeah, and just look at the media hype over a recently dead rapist basketball player.

Watch for seminal, bombshell papers on 2019-nCoV to appear in JAMA today and over the weekend. There's a reason why all our courageous, ever ethical and moral leaders are praising President Xi today and calling for unity. I smell a rat.