Way too early 2020 D1 NCAA XC championship meet predictions

Women’s teams:

1. NC State

2. Stanford

3. New Mexico

NC State returns 6 of their top 7 and adds Tuohy, Starliper, and Schulz.

The only women’s team that can give NC State a run for their money next year is Stanford. They got 3rd last year and return all of their top 6 except for their #3 and they will primarily be seniors. They also add Zofia Dudek (don’t know if she’s redshirting or not).

New Mexico also looks good but they got 4th last year and are losing their #2 runner who got 9th place and I don’t know of any world-class recruits coming in. Looks to be the #3 team next year I’d say at this point.

Nico Young, the second he graduates high school moves to Flagstaff and begins 100 mile weeks, he crushes the field at every invite running 22 minute 8k's. Finally at nationals he blows everyone away with a 27:29 10k.

Men’s teams:

1. NAU - had an off-day at nationals last year, but loses only one senior and adds Nico Young.

2. BYU - could give NAU a challenge again. Returns 3 of their top 5 and will add Clinger (he’s back from the mission, we’ll need to see where his fitness is at when he starts racing again) and Shumway (who was hurt last season. BYU’s success will depend on how healthy he is).

3. Michigan - returns 5 of their top 6 and is looking to consist of mainly seniors next year.

Wesley Banguria FTW on the mens side

Predjikshuns wrote:

Men’s teams:

1. NAU - had an off-day at nationals last year, but loses only one senior and adds Nico Young.

2. BYU - could give NAU a challenge again. Returns 3 of their top 5 and will add Clinger (he’s back from the mission, we’ll need to see where his fitness is at when he starts racing again) and Shumway (who was hurt last season. BYU’s success will depend on how healthy he is).

3. Michigan - returns 5 of their top 6 and is looking to consist of mainly seniors next year.

4. Tulsa - placed 5th last year and returns 1,2,4,5, and 6 from last year, so they look to finish 1 spot higher.

Who knows, everyone has 6 months of training before next XC season. Without indications of fitness from outdoor track season we can't really know.

Predjikshuns wrote:

Women’s teams:

1. NC State

2. Stanford

3. New Mexico

NC State returns 6 of their top 7 and adds Tuohy, Starliper, and Schulz.

The only women’s team that can give NC State a run for their money next year is Stanford. They got 3rd last year and return all of their top 6 except for their #3 and they will primarily be seniors. They also add Zofia Dudek (don’t know if she’s redshirting or not).

New Mexico also looks good but they got 4th last year and are losing their #2 runner who got 9th place and I don’t know of any world-class recruits coming in. Looks to be the #3 team next year I’d say at this point.

4th place seems like a tossup. Some teams that could take it are Colorado, Air Force Academy, Florida State, and University of Michigan.

I think 4th place will be Colorado. They got 10th last year and they return #2,3,4. They will also add Emily Covert (who placed 4th at NXN and 5th in Footlocker in 2018) and Emily Venters (who placed 39th in the D1 championship race but was dealing with injuries this past year. Transfer from Boise State).

We don't even know if there will be Fall season sports at the D1 level yet. It's possible that the season is canceled.

Beat me to it.

Covid-19 sweeps the meet.

Just became aware that Hannah Steelman is transferring to NC State. She finished right behind Chmiel at nationals.

If the fall season happens, NC State’s top 5 will be stacked. Tuohy, Chmiel, Steelman, Starliper, Walters.

I don’t see how another team will pose a threat on them.

Predjikshuns wrote:Men’s teams:

1. NAU - had an off-day at nationals last year, but loses only one senior and adds Nico Young.

2. BYU - could give NAU a challenge again. Returns 3 of their top 5 and will add Clinger (he’s back from the mission, we’ll need to see where his fitness is at when he starts racing again) and Shumway (who was hurt last season. BYU’s success will depend on how healthy he is).

3. Michigan - returns 5 of their top 6 and is looking to consist of mainly seniors next year.

Plus whoever else BYU may have been redshirting.

Agree. DNS FTW

On the mens side. I believe the team will come down to NAU and BYU again with NAU coming out on top this time. I really wonder what type of shape Casey Clinger will be for the fall, if he can get back to form the 1-2 duo of Mantz and Clinger will be real dangerous at NCAAs. For podium spots 3-5 I think is wide open. I think Colorado, Oregon, Michigan, Notre Dame, Washington, and Arkansas will all be podium good but just depends who has the better day at Nats.

I think Cooper Teare, Conner Mantz, Luis Grijalva are my top 3 favorites to win NCAAs Individually.

Men:

1. NAU - Had an off day last year, and will be incredibly hungry. They return a young team with more experience.

2. BYU - Lots of talent and depth, and they get Clinger back.

Women:

1. NC State - Tuohy and Starliper added to a solid team? Hand them the title now.

2. Everyone else.

Individual:

Men- Conor Mantz

Women- Weini Kelati

agc5k wrote:

Men:

1. NAU - Had an off day last year, and will be incredibly hungry. They return a young team with more experience.

2. BYU - Lots of talent and depth, and they get Clinger back.

Women:

1. NC State - Tuohy and Starliper added to a solid team? Hand them the title now.

2. Everyone else.

Individual:

Men- Conor Mantz

Women- Weini Kelati

If they have an NCAA National XC meet who says it won't get postponed until April 2021? There has been talk of playing the Fall sports in the Spring.

agc5k wrote:

Women:

1. NC State - Tuohy and Starliper added to a solid team? Hand them the title now.

2. Everyone else.

Stanford women will get 2nd. They return everyone in their top 6 except for O’Keefe and will be adding Starcher and Dudek.

I think New Mexico will get 3rd either with or without O’Keefe being eligible to compete in cross.

Let's look at the facts.

Fact #1: Stanford was miles better than NC State last year. They finished third on an off day (Fiona O'Keefe had a back injury two weeks before NCAAs). Donaghu and Lawson ran well, but not to the level of their Pac-12s and regionals performances (1-2-3 at Pac-12s, 1-2 at regionals). Having two low sticks is incredibly important at NCAAs; no team has ever won NCAAs without at least 2 runners in the top 20, and most of the winning teams had 2 in the top 10. NC State does not have two runners that I would look at and say "those two are both title contenders, and definitely top 10 picks." Donaghu and Lawson are both that good. Additionally, on the track, Heymach, Oakes, and Archer showed significant improvement. Without any strong freshmen coming in, they would be easily in title contention with NC State.

Fact #2: Relying on freshmen is a BAD idea. There are freshmen that come in, immediately make an impact, and help a team to a title. It's happened before, it could happen again. However, NC State is currently planning on relying heavily on not one, not two, but three freshmen. If any of the three don't perform in their first season (I expect Walters especially to take some time to adjust) their chances get significantly worse. Not to mention, for years now the rest of her class has been closing the gap on Tuohy. It got to the point where she had to hold off a charge by two separate girls at NXN, and that was with her top competition (Starliper and Dudek) either not there, or having an off race. This brings me to my last point.

Fact #3: Starliper and Tuohy are very likely not the best incoming freshmen in the country. Zofia Dudek was the Foot Locker champion, ran solo efforts of 2:08, 4:41, and 9:56 this indoor season, and has not lost to a girl in her class in over a year. In fact, the only girls she has lost to since the 2019 indoor season were Ericka Vanderlende (probably the best freshman in the country this year) and Abby Vanderkooi (easily the most talented high school underclassman). And of course, Dudek is going to Stanford, NC State's top competition. Stanford doesn't need Dudek (they return five women who finished in the top 100 last year, including 8th and 11th place finishers Donaghu and Lawson) but if she performs, she will be the best freshman in the country, and another All-American finisher for the Cardinals.

Stanford for the win. NC State possibly 3rd.

Team: UCCS

Individual: Easton Allred