There are plenty of people that know he can run a 2:11 or 2:12 marathon if he shows up ready to run that day.
This is the consensus opinion among sane people. Then you have a tiny lunatic minority saying he can't run 2:15. And a tiny lunatic minority saying he can run 2:09.
He can probably run 2xhalf+5 at least because he is distance-biased.
63 without tapering = 62 low with tapering, so 2:09 on a flat course.
He also handles hills well on top of the extra distance, relative to the field, so he could overperform in an honest Trials race. 2:12 with tapering if the course is slow. It might land him anywhere from 2-10th.
We have at most 10 2:08-9 guys with the moon shoes, more than half of whom will fall apart from hills or something else, and all of whom will run 2+ min slower in the Trials race.
A good day for Jim gives him maybe 3-4% chance of qualifying. Not impossible.