Prediction: Kipchoge's streak will come to an end in 2020

I'm inclined to agree with you. It would be nice to see a break in the dominance. He's become the GSW of the marathon, and the shoes were his Durant.

Kipchoge isn’t the GOAT. He is the marathon GOAT.

He’s not going to lose a rabbited WMM.

If he does the Olympics and **if** 2:01:41 Skin-enisa toes the line I think the streak comes to an end.

If Kipchoge didn’t like having Guye Adola screwing around nearby in Berlin then he really won’t like having Bekele nearby over that last 10k in Tokyo. Kipchoge, nervous by nature before races now with peak attention paid to him, will be caught between making it honest long enough for people to fade or banking on a drive/kick that absolutely plays in favor of Bekele, but also someone else in the field.

That said, it’s Kipchoge’s race to lose.

Kipchoge won’t have better shoes that the other Nike athletes so put the troll bread away.

I think Kipchoge will hold on for another year, but I say he makes Tokyo/Sapporo his last race. He clearly has a system figured out that's working great for him, and he and his coach know how to make sure that he's at his best when it matters. Tactically, he won't fall victim to the #1 seed mindset. He knows what he's doing, and he knows what it takes to win these races. I know that he's going to have to slow down, but right now he's the fastest he's ever been. He's great at London, and is much more likely to have a good day than Bekele. Bekele has gotten his stuff together, but a lot can go wrong over a marathon and Kipchoge's more experienced at making it work. I think the Olympics will also be all Kipchoge.

I just can't see any weaknesses in Kipchoge's game. He is fit, smart, and consistent. I say he doesn't lose in 2020. I hope he retires on top after Sapporo, but that's his call.

It's just hard to predict. So far, no cracks in the armor. Nothing to indicate a decline. That said, it's aging he is dealing with, and that can start striking hard and fast at any time.

I'm not sure I see anyone coming up to challenge him, but people can come out of nowhere fairly fast. I agree with the poster a few above who said Kipchoge doesn't lose a rabbited WMM this year, e.g. London. I could see Bekele, or even a lesser heralded guy having a chance in a slower race where Kipchoge might not be confident enough to attempt to solo 2:02 or 2:03.

One exception is if healthy Bekele shows up in London. That's a genuine challenge for Kipchoge, as I don't he is any better than when he ran his WR.

This isn't just about Bekele. There are a half dozen other Ethiopians in their 20s who you've never heard of who are running 2:02 - 2:03.

There is no reason to think that Kipchoge has all of a sudden lost it after his ridiculous time at 2019 London and the Ineos challenge. On the other hand, there are so many fast people out there, that you have to believe that someone will get lucky. I can see Kipchoge losing a close race in London but still winning the Olympics. It won't be Mr Inconsistent Bekele either (but I truly would like for him to do it).

You all are forgetting that he has the leg muscle memory to run a sub 2 hour marathon now. He will most likely break his world record in London. It would be nice to have a world record somewhere else besides Berlin!

Adola would have won. Access to shoes no one else has is wrong. This applies to BTC sub-elites too. It's plain cheating, IMO. Vaporfly's are fine when everyone has access to them.

Kipchoge is not going to lose in 2020. Besides the physio advantage of running sub 2, he has a massive mental advantage. Racing against Kipchoge is like facing the best Darth Vader in a duel. He will beat you in multiple ways.

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

Abeneziel wrote:

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

If banana bread weren’t wasting time trying to scheme on a smiley barista he’d give us some insight on Bekele’s chances of beating the marathon goat next year. Where are you, dude?

Abeneziel wrote:

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

The thing about Bekele is he is so inconsistent. His 2:01 and 2:03 are the only two good marathons in his career. He has a lot of DNFs and DNSs. He has never run two good marathons in a row. If we're talking about the Olympics, he has never run a summer marathon. I am not convince he can run a good marathon in the heat. He dropped out of a World Cross Country race because of heat. Also, the Ethiopians have not selected Bekele for a national team since 2012. The case against Bekele is Ethiopia has a lot of good, younger runners.

Abeneziel wrote:

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

Not really. Kipchoge finished his WR faster than Bekele, and clearly had more in the tank. Bekele had someone to chase for at least 35k and was digging deep at the end.

I think one of a number of Ethiopian talents could upset Kipchoge but it won't necessarily be Bekele.

It will depend if KIp steps off the EPO or not?

Kipchoge will win both London and the Olympics 2020 and then retire.

So, he won't lose.

Kipchoge can't lose to anyone. I truly hope he meets Bekele in London. I have a feeling that Kipchoge will attempt a WR in London. I am not sure how wise that would be considering the Olympics will be four months away but no one can beat Kipchoge right now.

Hardloper wrote:

Abeneziel wrote:

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

Not really. Kipchoge finished his WR faster than Bekele, and clearly had more in the tank. Bekele had someone to chase for at least 35k and was digging deep at the end.

I think one of a number of Ethiopian talents could upset Kipchoge but it won't necessarily be Bekele.

A tale of two world records.........or a world record and a near world record.

In the first World record, the real one, Kipchoge was chasing 2:02.57.

That was is target.

He was celebratin gin the last 400 or so metres because he understood that he had obliterated it.

In the second race (of the 'near' world record), Bekele was chasing the World Record - 2:01.39.

He really took it out in the last mile or so and especially in the last 400 metres. He still didn't get it!

That is the difference!

Kipchoge did an easy 2:01.39 while Bekele did a very hard 2:01.41.

That again, is the difference.

They both need to be in London and Bekele will be dropped just after half way.

It's well documented that Bekele's preparation was ~8 weeks and following serious injury. His coaching staff in the Netherlands were hoping for Bekele to challenge the Ethiopian record, not the WR. They were completely shocked by the time he ran.

We all know the greatest marathoner is Kipchoge, but it's not as easy to say who's faster under more ideal circumstances.

You guys sound like the same guys that predict the recession is coming all while the Dow is climbing higher than ever. Just like predicting Kipchoge’s demised, yet he just gets better and better.

Hardloper wrote:

Abeneziel wrote:

If Bekele is in Berlin shape, he will mop the floor with Kipchoge.

As fast as him in a whole marathon and a faster kick and finish.

Not really. Kipchoge finished his WR faster than Bekele, and clearly had more in the tank. Bekele had someone to chase for at least 35k and was digging deep at the end.

I think one of a number of Ethiopian talents could upset Kipchoge but it won't necessarily be Bekele.

This is facually completely false.

Bekele was 25 seconds behind at the 30th km.

Bekele was around 23 seconds behind at the 35th km (13 seconds behind Legese)

Bekele was 19 seconds behind at the 37th km (4 seconds behind Legese)

He has gained time the whole last 12km, and 17 seconds in the last 5k. Kipchoge went hard but had a better paced start. If Bekele had started his surge a little sooner, he would have got the World record.

I don't think that Kipchoge can take that finish.