Dyestat Drama - Dudek ranked #1a and Tuohy ranked #1b

Good post thanks for the info

Tuohy looked really good at Club Nationals overall she had a good season smart under control

Dudek's running really well. I didn't realize how much progress she made the last 2 years

It's rare for a girl to improve that much in her Junior and Senior year

But hey good for her

Honestly I think Tuohy could have hit somewhere 172 to 174 at her best this year speed rating wise

We'll see what their track times are this year

Yeah Tuohy had the worst possible race she could at nxn and still gutted it out a nice win

It's not easy to always lead wire-to-wire she did open up a 7-second lead halfway through the race

Honestly girls have stuff that can obviously affect them that boys don't have to think about it. So I think it was a good chance that the stress and dealing with women stuff was just what was going on and why touhy had an off-day

I mean she's not going to get into that after the race but it's certainly a reason that a girl can have a much lower than expected time. She looked strong at Club Nationals

astro wrote:

uohy became the first 3x NXN champion in history, was undefeated (Dudek lost), and it was not as if Dudek was running these massive record times all year. Tuohy also had better speed rating all season, even with the inflated numbers from FL. Whatever.

Tuohy has been getting weaker every year, which is why she barely won the team (fake) championship this year, if she wanted respect, she should've been winning the individual championship, instead of dodging it.

I have avoided weighing in on this pointless discussion. For those that are curious the results of the European U20 XC race where Dudek got 5th are below.

The top 4 girls seem to have PBs around 9:00 to 9:15 in the 3,000 and around 16:00 in the 5,000. Their 1500 PBs are more impressive 4:10 to 4:15.

https://www.european-athletics.org/competitions/european-cross-country-championships/2019/athletics/event/womens-u20/phase=atw302100/index.html?v=20191208105240&intcmp=[#]-schline-result

One can find the PBs of the finishers on European Athletics like the below for th 4th place runner.

https://www.european-athletics.org/athletes/group=s/athlete=96910-sclabas-delia/index.html

Puffer wrote:

Dudek's running really well. I didn't realize how much progress she made the last 2 years

It's rare for a girl to improve that much in her Junior and Senior year

Dudek didn't start serious training until her sophomore year when she moved to the US. Tuohy has been seriously training since the 7th grade. It will be interesting to see how they progress from here.

Is Dudek even going to go to college in the US? It would be free for her to go to school in Poland where her father is a professor.

I think that a lot of the drama around Tuohy is because of where she is from and comparisons of her to Mary Cain (because of her geographic and early success similarity). If the Cain burnout story hadn't broken during the season, Tuohy's seeming lack of improvement in 2019 would have been the subject of less focus.

yoyomama wrote:

Is Dudek even going to go to college in the US? It would be free for her to go to school in Poland where her father is a professor.

I think that a lot of the drama around Tuohy is because of where she is from and comparisons of her to Mary Cain (because of her geographic and early success similarity). If the Cain burnout story hadn't broken during the season, Tuohy's seeming lack of improvement in 2019 would have been the subject of less focus.

Stanford

uh uh wrote:

The top-3 at Euros U-20 have 5K PRs 16:01-16:09.

Macumber ran 15:30 this summer and Cuffe is clearly in that kind of shape. Look for that kind of 5K for Tuohy in 2020.

Pro-Dudek trolls go home davestated. She is good and on the rise, but not even close to Tuohy.

Cuffe is not "clearly in that kind of shape" lol are you kidding me? She beat mostly nobodies and a high schooler.

Aksjxnzj wrote:

uh uh wrote:

The top-3 at Euros U-20 have 5K PRs 16:01-16:09.

Macumber ran 15:30 this summer and Cuffe is clearly in that kind of shape. Look for that kind of 5K for Tuohy in 2020.

Pro-Dudek trolls go home davestated. She is good and on the rise, but not even close to Tuohy.

Cuffe is not "clearly in that kind of shape" lol are you kidding me? She beat mostly nobodies and a high schooler.

Shanahan who finished 7 seconds behind Tuohy ran an indoor 15:26 the weekend before.

For those saying Tuohy had a horrible race at NXN, I would strongly disagree with that based on season results from the top 4 girls in NY. If anything the data shows that Claire Walters had a slightly above average race at NXN and the other 3 were within a few seconds of where one would expect them to be.

Tuohy and Rauber were consistent all season. Walters, unsurprisingly being from FM had her best race of the season as NXN. Schulz started the season off a little slow and then by November was where she was going to be the rest of the season.

Bottom line, Tuohy did not have a bad race at NXN. Is Dudek faster? I really doubt it.

Oct 12 Manhattan College Invite 2.5 miles

13:33 - Tuohy

13:45 - Walters (4.8 seconds/mile behind)

13:52 - Rauber (7.6 seconds/mile behind)

14:19 - Schulz (18.4 seconds/mile behind)

Nov 16 NYSPHSAA 3 miles

15:36 - Tuohy

16:01 - Walters (8.3 seconds/mile behind)

16:01 - Rauber (8.3 seconds/mile behind)

16:14 - Schulz (12.7 seconds/mile behind)

Dec 7 NXN 5K

17:18 - Tuohy

17:28 - Walters (3.2 seconds/mile behind)

17:38 - Rauber (6.5 seconds/mile behind)

17:56 - Schulz (12.3 seconds/mile behind)

I think people are somewhat biased toward Touhy because of her amazing season last year and has a brilliant hs career in total. In pre-season, Dudek was almost completely under the radar screen but rapidly improved to actually win the the footlocker title. Statistically, their highest performances this season is almost a dead heat though those rates have inherent flaws and uncertainties. As with the case of Caitlin Lane--one can only speculate on the outcome as they never raced each other. Touhy has a reasonable chance of running away from the field on a given day through aggressive front running tactics. However, Dudek has great turnover and an ability to change gears and kick which is rare at the hs level--certainly better than anyone at NXN. Thus, giving both a number one ranking does not seem unreasonable.

I am referring to her battle with Starliper (who herself has strong track credentials). For awhile it looked like she had the victory all sewed up but Zudek had amazing bursts of speed and grit the last 500 m or so to capture the title.

NCAA's is a whole different level above hs in competition. There are probably college freshman that could have handily beaten Touhy is they were in the same race. So 5th at World Juniors is a significant accomplishment.

Kev2 wrote:

NCAA's is a whole different level above hs in competition. There are probably college freshman that could have handily beaten Touhy is they were in the same race. So 5th at World Juniors is a significant accomplishment.

And who are these college freshman that would have easily beaten Tuohy? Melany Smart was the top freshman and has a 16:08 5000 PR. Kelsey Chmiel was second freshman and just went 16:02 for 5000 at BU.

Danielle Shanahan beat Chmiel by 36 seconds at BU, running 15:26.

Tuohy beat Shanahan by 7 seconds the weekend after BU.

I highly doubt any freshman girls could beat Tuohy. In fact, I doubt there are more than a half dozen NCAA females that could beat Tuohy.

That is true--the real cream of the crop generally avoids Club Nationals--I guess bigger fish to fry or trying to peak at a different time--December fitness on the bigger stage does not mean much except as a precursor to indoor track

Have you ever not been down on Tuohy? First it was Lane, then Masciarelli, then Starliper. Now Dudek gets the honers as the "smart" choice. LOL.

And no statistically they were not a dead heat. Tuohy had better numbers all year. Dudek got an inflated number at FL because Bill admitted that he refused to account for the speed of the course and holds FL to a particular standard despite dong exactly that for other races. But comparing FL to NXN given the conditions at NXN is impossible. hart was 50th at NXN.

Bottom line Tuohy was undefeated and three-peated. Dudek lost and beat Starliper, who was fifth at NXN, by 1 second. And it is amazing how people just write off Tuohy's track accomplishments. She was the anchor for a national title relay team and seems to kick just fine, but Ok.

Touhy has always been a factor so I am sorry if I came across as write her off as diminishing what she has accomplished. However, some people (in the same way they inflated Mary Cain) believe that she is a shoe-in for the Olympic trials or somehow progress to the level of a record record holder like Dibaba or Ayana. Touhy is not consistently running mid 15s for 5000 and does not have the same turnover of Cain, Houlihan, or Effraimson. I also believe from certain programs in upstate NY, e.g. FM, North Rockland, or Saratoga Springs and the tri-state area have advantages over girls from other programs (e.g. Rawlings, WY). It is generally not possible for someone of similar talent who is running 40 mpw to beat someone running around 70 mpw for a number of years. The reality is that most of these high mileage prodigies never reach the elite stage. There have been great runners coming out of I am not a great fan of speed ratings but a difference between 169 and 170 for a season best is negligible if you buy into that as a way of evaluating performance. However, many tend to assume that she is head and shoulders over other runners --it was true last year--but not this year. Most people thought she would win NXN but 30 seconds or so and people were shocked when the margin was less than one second--and this is not accounting for the fact that the talent pool is severely diluted by having 2 nationals championships. The bottom line is that one can only speculate what the outcome would be if there were one national race (like their used to be) so there is no point in speculating on outcomes. As it is, I probably wasted far more time and energy than this issue really deserves. However, I personally believe that Dudek, Touhy, Masciareli, Starliper, or Lane are close enough in abilities that any one of them could win a national championship if they are having a particularly good day or someone is off her game a bit. The more interesting question is how that do at NCAA's or the elite level. I suspect some people a bit under the radar screen right now will dominate in the future.

Kev2 wrote:

However, I personally believe that Dudek, Touhy, Masciareli, Starliper, or Lane are close enough in abilities that any one of them could win a national championship if they are having a particularly good day or someone is off her game a bit.

What does Lane have to do with it? She's in college. Ran one 5000 this season in 19:03. How is she possibly going to beat Tuohy?

Why anyone would have thought Tuohy would win NXN by 30+ seconds is beyond me considering there were 2 girls from her state that were closer than that to her all season.

That statement would make more sense if Touhy was consistently running under 16 minutes but that is not the case--she ran 15:37 once well over a year ago. Melany Smart ran around the same time as Jessica Lawson from Stanford--who also ran 4:11 1500 --faster than any hs girl has run in recent years. The top ten finishers at NCAA would probably be way ahead of any of the NXN or Footlocker championships based on comparable track performances etc.