Why is Texas so Bad at NXN?

Weather conditions and travel time hurt them.

Pretty sure in the 2008-2012 time frame Texas consistently put out individuals and teams on the podium. Thinking of Craig Lutz, Chelsea Sveinson, Reed Connor, Sarah Andrews, Buerne Champion, The Woodlands, Southlake Carroll. Just like all states, they go through ups and downs.

?????

Maybe Texas does not care about NXN.

In 2016 Texas actually did pretty good.

They had 4 guys in the top 10 - Sam Worley (2nd), Alex Maier (5th), Reed Brown (6th), Daniel Bernal (10th)

Connor O’Neill got 24th.

Woodlands placed 8th and Southlake Carroll placed 11th.

London Culbreath actually BEAT Katelyn Tuohy that year, placing 12th.

Southlake Carroll girls placed 9th.

And Alex Maier placed 7th a year ago and 14th 2 years ago.

I wonder how Judson Greer will do next year. He’s one of the top returners.

I think the girls side had some bad luck this year. Culbreath dealing with injury. Brown had an injury, was able to battle back to get in, then unfortunately took a pretty hard tumble. Brown will prob be back next year looking for redemption. But Texas season starts so early, it doesn’t line up well with “championship season”. Now the team thing, that’s another story. It’s a culture thing, that just isn’t a high priority in Texas.

It’s so hot here! wrote:

I think the girls side had some bad luck this year. Culbreath dealing with injury. Brown had an injury, was able to battle back to get in, then unfortunately took a pretty hard tumble. Brown will prob be back next year looking for redemption. But Texas season starts so early, it doesn’t line up well with “championship season”. Now the team thing, that’s another story. It’s a culture thing, that just isn’t a high priority in Texas.

Heidi Nielson had an injury too.

Boerne Champion boys won in 2009 (the only time they were at NXN) and Southlake Carroll placed 2nd in 2011 to CBA.

If we go by statistics, since the start as Nike Team Nationals

Podium Teams in each year for boys are distributed as:

2004: IL, NY, WA

2005: NY, IL, NY

2006: PA, CA, WA

2007: IL, NM, NM

2008: WA, IL, IL

2009: TX, WA, TX

2010: CA, NY, IN

2011: NJ, TX, UT

2012: CA, UT, WA

2013: WA, NJ, TN

2014: NY, WA, MN

2015: CA, UT, CA

2016: MT, UT, TN

2017: VA, NY, CO

2018: VA, CA, CO

2019: CA, CA, UT

In total by podium finishes for teams

California: 8

Washington: 7

New York: 6

Illinois: 5

Utah: 5

Texas: 3

Colorado: 2

New Jersey: 2

Virginia: 2

New Mexico: 2

Tennessee: 2

Minnesota: 1

Pennsylvania: 1

Indiana: 1

Montana: 1

There's some variability here, but yes, Texas has an unfortunate tendency to do poorly given their population. Not really sure why. Washington conversely, does exceptionally well, probably thanks to Pat Tyson's influence in the early years. I would like to assess this based on performance as a whole rather than just the podium finishes, but I really don't have the time to match Club Names to schools, and schools to states.

I won't do the same for girls, since there's extraordinary skewing with New York, to the point that it depletes the available sample space for the other states.

Hardloper wrote:

?????

Translation: lots of poor coaching.

While we're at it, here's the number of NXN boys' podium appearances, adjusted by the population of each state (the number after each state is the number of podium appearances per million residents of each state).

Utah 1.56

New Mexico .95

Washington .93

Montana .91

Illinois .39

Colorado .35

New York .31

Tennessee .29

Virginia .24

New Jersey .22

California .20

Minnesota .18

Indiana .15

Texas .10

Pennsylvania .08

Everybody else: 0

With so few years to look at, you can't read too much into this, but the big drop from the top 4 to the chase pack is interesting. With a total population of 327.2 million and 48 podium appearances, you'd expect 1 podium per 6.8 million residents of a state (or .147 per million). So every state on the list is exceeding expectations - except for Texas (should have 4.2 rather than 3) and Pennsylvania (should have 1.8 rather than 1) - at the expense of the zero-podium states.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

?????

Translation: lots of poor coaching.

They certainly aren't losing potential runners to football, unless maybe they're a kicker.

We rarely ever get cold weather. We don't have many hills.

Bring the northern teams to Texas. Let' s see how they fare in humidity. It's not easy training in Texas summer, just like it's not easy training in the Winter for many other states. Maybe that's why Texas doesn't perform as well during XC, but we perform better in Track? Our Summers are brutal, our winters mild.

Just look at Track & Field. We produce just as fast times as any other states in the nation, including in Distance running.

Weather, traveling, and courses/hill make a difference.

Heracles wrote:

We rarely ever get cold weather. We don't have many hills.

Bring the northern teams to Texas. Let' s see how they fare in humidity. It's not easy training in Texas summer, just like it's not easy training in the Winter for many other states. Maybe that's why Texas doesn't perform as well during XC, but we perform better in Track? Our Summers are brutal, our winters mild.

Just look at Track & Field. We produce just as fast times as any other states in the nation, including in Distance running.

Weather, traveling, and courses/hill make a difference.

If weather were that much of a factor, Texas should do much better at Footlocker. Can't imagine there's much to complain about San Diego's weather. However, they've had 2 championship victories (across both genders) in the entire history of the meet. In contrast, Illinois has 5, NY has 4, and CA has 18 (distinct advantage due to location of course). Doesn't make much sense statistically, but I can buy that Texas just doesn't care about cross country given how much they love high school football.

Heracles wrote:

We rarely ever get cold weather. We don't have many hills.

Bring the northern teams to Texas. Let' s see how they fare in humidity. It's not easy training in Texas summer, just like it's not easy training in the Winter for many other states. Maybe that's why Texas doesn't perform as well during XC, but we perform better in Track? Our Summers are brutal, our winters mild.

Just look at Track & Field. We produce just as fast times as any other states in the nation, including in Distance running.

Weather, traveling, and courses/hill make a difference.

I'm sure there must be more, but in the history of American miling I can only think of one great runner who came from/grew up in Texas -- Leo Manzano. Please don't say Steve Magness.

AHSXS wrote:

In total by podium finishes for teams

California: 8

Washington: 7

New York: 6

Illinois: 5

Utah: 5

Texas: 3

Colorado: 2

New Jersey: 2

Virginia: 2

New Mexico: 2

Tennessee: 2

Minnesota: 1

Pennsylvania: 1

Indiana: 1

Montana: 1

This does not seem too far off. The only states (out of 50) ahead of 6th place Texas are three other large states (in terms of population) plus Utah and Washington. XC in Utah is a huge deal. Texas is hot AF and distance running is rough during the summer and all through XC season. Weather plus culture plus geography. Zero trails, hot as hell and football. But still 6th out of 50.

AHSXS wrote:

If we go by statistics, since the start as Nike Team Nationals

Podium Teams in each year for boys are distributed as:

2004: IL, NY, WA

2005: NY, IL, NY

2006: PA, CA, WA

2007: IL, NM, NM

2008: WA, IL, IL

2009: TX, WA, TX

2010: CA, NY, IN

2011: NJ, TX, UT

2012: CA, UT, WA

2013: WA, NJ, TN

2014: NY, WA, MN

2015: CA, UT, CA

2016: MT, UT, TN

2017: VA, NY, CO

2018: VA, CA, CO

2019: CA, CA, UT

If you’re doing those in order in terms of who got 1st, 2nd and 3rd, 2014 is:

NY, MN, WA

FM won, Wayzata got 2nd, and North Central got 3rd

Texas Runner wrote:

Pretty sure in the 2008-2012 time frame Texas consistently put out individuals and teams on the podium. Thinking of Craig Lutz, Chelsea Sveinson, Reed Connor, Sarah Andrews, Buerne Champion, The Woodlands, Southlake Carroll. Just like all states, they go through ups and downs.

Colby lowe?

Les wrote:

Heracles wrote:

We rarely ever get cold weather. We don't have many hills.

Bring the northern teams to Texas. Let' s see how they fare in humidity. It's not easy training in Texas summer, just like it's not easy training in the Winter for many other states. Maybe that's why Texas doesn't perform as well during XC, but we perform better in Track? Our Summers are brutal, our winters mild.

Just look at Track & Field. We produce just as fast times as any other states in the nation, including in Distance running.

Weather, traveling, and courses/hill make a difference.

I'm sure there must be more, but in the history of American miling I can only think of one great runner who came from/grew up in Texas -- Leo Manzano. Please don't say Steve Magness.

Magness is basically just another Andrew bumbalough. Shaggy headed hairy legged tall alpha male who did well in highschool but awful in highschool and the pros.

Colby lowe and matt bowling are the best runners to ever come out of texas. Jeremy wariner is good but got injured too much.