Nico Young: Sub 4 in the mile this spring?

Time to break it wrote:

Can he do it?

I actually think he has a better chance of breaking 8:30 than breaking 4.

snuffy wrote:

Time to break it wrote:

Can he do it?

I actually think he has a better chance of breaking 8:30 than breaking 4.

They're kind of the same thing. A strength runner slows down by 15 seconds per mile from a mile to 2 miles.

For example, LV 3:58/8:29, Virgin 4:05/8:42 and Pre 4:06/8:42.

I know plenty of 4:20s that cant break 9:20

It's extremely rare for HSers to break 4, and almost every year we see a thread like this. I have come to dislike these threads quite a bit, but I have to admit even for an old skeptic like myself, Nico has a good chance to break 4. The only thing that puts some doubt in my mind is the fact that he is clearly an aerobic monster, and maybe lacks in the speed department. There are also not an unlimited amount of opportunities to do it in HS compared to college. College meets every weekend have sub-4 potential. It is much more difficult for HSers to find the same quality of competition week in week out, which is why we see significantly more freshman college guys run sub 4 than HS seniors.

In summary: yes he can do it, but I'd actually like to see him take a crack at the 2 mile and 5k at some high quality events rather than the mile. Maybe he can do all of them, but to get into several meets with the right competition and timing would be more of a logistical challenge than an ability challenge. I hope he gets to do it all, because no matter what he runs this spring, it will be fast.

common sense man wrote:

I know plenty of 4:20s that cant break 9:20

If you have guys that are at the same competitive level in XC, the slowdown is always close to 15 seconds.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

snuffy wrote:

I actually think he has a better chance of breaking 8:30 than breaking 4.

They're kind of the same thing. A strength runner slows down by 15 seconds per mile from a mile to 2 miles.

For example, LV 3:58/8:29, Virgin 4:05/8:42 and Pre 4:06/8:42.

LV ran 3:59.71

FrenchDawg wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

They're kind of the same thing. A strength runner slows down by 15 seconds per mile from a mile to 2 miles.

For example, LV 3:58/8:29, Virgin 4:05/8:42 and Pre 4:06/8:42.

LV ran 3:59.71

And Pre ran 8:41

FrenchDawg wrote:

FrenchDawg wrote:

LV ran 3:59.71

And Pre ran 8:41

And Virgin ran 8:40

FrenchDawg wrote:

FrenchDawg wrote:

And Pre ran 8:41

And Virgin ran 8:40

Virgin and Pre round to 8:41 and 8:42. Anyway, it doesn't change my point about the expected slow down between 1 and 2 miles. Another indication of being a strength runner, is slowing down by 11 seconds per mile from 5 to 10K.

I think Sprout has a better chance.

Anyways, why the hell do we stuggle to break 4, when high schoolers from other countries run the equivalent for 1500? Also why are we getting no where near the times high schoolers from the 60s were running on Cinders and Dirt tracks? Ryun ran 3:55 and 3:56 on Cinders and Dirt, but yet we can only get a few kids every few years to barely run 3:59

Roe Jogan wrote:

I think Sprout has a better chance.

Anyways, why the hell do we stuggle to break 4, when high schoolers from other countries run the equivalent for 1500? Also why are we getting no where near the times high schoolers from the 60s were running on Cinders and Dirt tracks? Ryun ran 3:55 and 3:56 on Cinders and Dirt, but yet we can only get a few kids every few years to barely run 3:59

I think it's disingenuous to say that kids are 'nowhere near' the times run in the 60s. More high schoolers broke 4 between 2011 and 2019 (6) than from 1960-2010 (4). And add to that number 10-20 others who were knocking on the door between 4:00-4:02. Some of those athletes have been busts, but I think we need to give credit to this generation of high school athletes for the phenomenal job they have done, and their potential on the world stage. Not even Matt Centrowitz broke 4 in high school, and look where he ended up. The US currently has plenty of guys who could plausibly end up in the same position with consistent training. Hoping to see Nico take a stab at sub 4 in the spring.

Time to break it wrote:

Can he do it?

Possibly! There is a young 17 year old runner across the Pacific who is running very well. Aussie Sam Clifford has run 8:11 for 3k and 14:07 for 5k plus he ran very well at WXC.

I imagine that if he goes the USA college route like Tiernan and McDonald he may he may have a few tussles with Nico.

Could be McDonald/Fisher 2.0

Will be exciting to see each athletes progression.

Also why are we getting no where near the times high schoolers from the 60s were running on Cinders and Dirt tracks? Ryun ran 3:55 and 3:56 on Cinders and Dirt, but yet we can only get a few kids every few years to barely run 3:59

It’s entirely possible Ryun is the most talented middle distance runner of all time.

Roe Jogan wrote:

I think Sprout has a better chance.

Anyways, why the hell do we stuggle to break 4, when high schoolers from other countries run the equivalent for 1500? Also why are we getting no where near the times high schoolers from the 60s were running on Cinders and Dirt tracks? Ryun ran 3:55 and 3:56 on Cinders and Dirt, but yet we can only get a few kids every few years to barely run 3:59

Well, we didn't have anyone running sub-4 in the 70s, 80s, or 90s, so that just shows that it's really hard for a high school athlete. Also, the mile is seldom run in high school now (or anywhere else). It's not really run during the regular outdoor track season at all. Even the top high school runners might get only 1 shot a year to run a fast mile.

The 1600 is run thousands of tines every year and 4 minutes is a barrier fir that also.

Cochlear implant wrote:

Also why are we getting no where near the times high schoolers from the 60s were running on Cinders and Dirt tracks? Ryun ran 3:55 and 3:56 on Cinders and Dirt, but yet we can only get a few kids every few years to barely run 3:59

It’s entirely possible Ryun is the most talented middle distance runner of all time.

I know it’s been said before, but 800m runners are some of the most misplaced talents in the sport. Slagowski had the best focus and he showed 3:57 ability.

Young is better than Teare was, I think. Teare ended up running 4:00.1

I'll be really surprised if he doesn't.

Virgin ran 8:40.9

It wouldn't be a bad idea to train for running on dirt. I'm not saying he wasn't faster but it might actually be an advantage in terms of having better form and stronger legs. Webb could have been even faster too look at his 400 meter times. If you went back and figured out which things we got rid of in the name of progress that are actually an advantage in terms of real running ability maybe someone could be faster yet. But the point of being a high school miler isn't usually to run 3:56 we shouldn't force or even encourage that unless like Ryan he's actually physically ready. 359 is great. 415 is really great honestly there's no reason why we should keep acting like successful running is only measured by time.