2019 NXN Team Prediction Thread

Rockland wrote:

Both coasts will be underwater in 50 years anyway. I thought starting in 7th grade was a disadvantage as all these kids just burn out and fade away....

It is a disadvantage eventually, but burnout doesn't tend to set in until the third year of running at the very earliest. Happens to almost everyone after 7 years.

fastTuohy wrote:

Then LaSalle, St Charles East, S Lake Carroll, FM, York, W Albemarle and Dakota Ridge.

I wouldn’t count out El Paso Eastwood to be up there. They won the state meet merge and since they were selected as an at-large they’ll want to do their best to show that they really belong in this meet. They will want to redeem themselves from the last place finish a year ago. They won NXR last year, they had 4 of their top 5 from the NXR 2018 champ race return from last year, and they are better than last year overall.

fastTuohy wrote:

Socal Sadness wrote:

What is the explanation for this? The SLC girls ran lightning fast at Woodbridge. I noticed their top girl at Woodbridge is no longer their top girl, but it’s hard to tell if she fell off slightly or the other girls stepped up. Hard to believe they could finish 20th if the CA girls are in the top-10.

I think Buchanan has gotten faster and S Lake Carroll maybe a little slower from Woodbridge. When you get into the middle of the pack, little differences can make a big change in scoring as there can be 2 runners per second easily. Buchanan also has Smith who will likely place very high in this team race, whereas I don't think S Lake Carroll has anyone who will place nearly that high - they are more of a pack.

If you're going to imply SLC girl's got slower, then you should just say all of the Texas girl's got slower.

You can easily compare all the TX runners in the Woodbridge race to say, NXN South.

SLC ran

Vandegrift ran

Coppell ran

Etc.

You're right about the top individual scorer probably giving Buchanan a huge edge, but maybe, just maybe--- California girls are being pegged up a notch and TX girl's underestimated.

Bang Bang wrote:

fastTuohy wrote:

Then LaSalle, St Charles East, S Lake Carroll, FM, York, W Albemarle and Dakota Ridge.

I wouldn’t count out El Paso Eastwood to be up there. They won the state meet merge and since they were selected as an at-large they’ll want to do their best to show that they really belong in this meet. They will want to redeem themselves from the last place finish a year ago. They won NXR last year, they had 4 of their top 5 from the NXR 2018 champ race return from last year, and they are better than last year overall.

I am not a fan of state meet merges. I think El Paso would have lost if they raced in the 6A race.

runn wrote:

If Toga and FM Girls both finish in the top 3 then Shenendhowa (at least) should have gotten an at large bid.

Shen finished only 7th in the NY region. They also were only 4th at Feds (and that was without FM, EA, or a full strength Liverpool team in the field). Your argument might hold for North Rockland. Maybe...

Box assignments are out. They did not do the Saratoga Springs (Kinetic) girls any favors as I don't think flat out speed is their strength. They may get trapped way back

https://nxn.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=13&do=news&news_id=592372&utm_content=bufferd2203&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

There are only 31 boxes and you are concerned? We ran some races that had 70 boxes. Some teams prefer to be on the end because you can get pinched in the center if both ends go out faster.

NXN stinks wrote:

There are only 31 boxes and you are concerned? We ran some races that had 70 boxes. Some teams prefer to be on the end because you can get pinched in the center if both ends go out faster.

well just my opinion but being on the inside with a 370 m sprint to the first turn does not seem like a good spot for this team. very physically small girls; 2 8th graders, 3 9th graders, 2 10th graders

Heracles wrote:

Bang Bang wrote:

I wouldn’t count out El Paso Eastwood to be up there. They won the state meet merge and since they were selected as an at-large they’ll want to do their best to show that they really belong in this meet. They will want to redeem themselves from the last place finish a year ago. They won NXR last year, they had 4 of their top 5 from the NXR 2018 champ race return from last year, and they are better than last year overall.

I am not a fan of state meet merges. I think El Paso would have lost if they raced in the 6A race.

Were there any temperature differences between the 5A and 6A boys race?

One of Beavercreek's big 4 (typically their 4th runner, I believe) unknowingly broke her foot the days before NXN regionals. She raced on it anyways...went to the doctor afterwards and found out her season was over.

Beavercreek already had depth issues---this eliminates them from the top 5 and likely from the top 10.

OHrunner99 wrote:

One of Beavercreek's big 4 (typically their 4th runner, I believe) unknowingly broke her foot the days before NXN regionals. She raced on it anyways...went to the doctor afterwards and found out her season was over.

Beavercreek already had depth issues---this eliminates them from the top 5 and likely from the top 10.

All 7 Beavercreek’s runners that were in the championship are in the entries list for NXN.

MEGAN NOWE F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# JULZ WILLIAMS F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# SAVANNAH ROARK F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# KENDALL HOBBS F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# GRACE DAILEY F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# TAYLOR EWERT F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# JODIE PIERCE F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

So if she is not racing, will Beavercreek be running 6 this time?

fastTuohy wrote:

I'll start this one. Would prefer to see opinions and not personal attacks.

Girls

Summit/FM/Saratoga Springs I see as the top 3 and any one of them could win or finish 3rd - or lower with a bad day. If I have to choose a winner I will go with Summit.

Spokane North looks like the one who could podium if one of the top three falter. A few seconds per runner the wrong way can make a big difference.

I see Buchanan, Beaver Creek, Newbury Park, Great Oak, Lone Peak Louden Valley rounding out the top 10 - but again small changes in relative performance can swing things a lot.

I agree with these picks but I saw that Beavercreek’s #4 is out for the season so that moves from a large 4-5 gap to a large 3-4 gap, so I don’t see them finishing in the top 10. With that, I can see Jesuit girls finish in the 5-10 range. They were only 10 points behind North Central at NXR, and living in the state where the meet will take place will help.

Girls team predictions

1. Summit

2. FM

3. Saratoga Springs

4. North Central

5. Buchanan

6. Great Oak

7. Newbury Park

8. Lone Peak

9. Loudoun Valley

10. Jesuit OR

You insinuate that people push their way to the front. They would be DQed if they did. Smaller is better because they take up less space. And why are you sobworried about getting out fast? Run your own race and don't get pulled out too fast. That is what happens at a race like this. Idiot coaches tell the kids to get out and they end up running 30 seconds slower than usual because they die in the last mike. Even pace is the best.

Running after you wrote:

You insinuate that people push their way to the front. They would be DQed if they did. Smaller is better because they take up less space. And why are you sobworried about getting out fast? Run your own race and don't get pulled out too fast. That is what happens at a race like this. Idiot coaches tell the kids to get out and they end up running 30 seconds slower than usual because they die in the last mike. Even pace is the best.

Sure, even pace ie best, except in a race that's on a wet, soft, and muddy course. It can become near impossible to make those late race moves. Oftentimes the team positions established at 2K carry through all the way to the finish (see this years NCAA championship).

No what I insinuate is that there are 200 runners trying to take a left hand turn less than 400 m into the race. At the turn, the field can be maybe 6 wide. At best a team can only have 3 runners on the line, the others start behind them. I just think they might get trapped far back on the inside and have a hard time trying to move up later. If you are experienced and disciplined you can probably pull this off. Again they are 2 10th graders, 3 9th graders and 2 8th graders.

The good news is they start right next to North Spokane and pretty close to Summit so if I am the coach I point out those color uniforms and tell the girls that is who you need to stay with.

Shorthanded? wrote:

OHrunner99 wrote:

One of Beavercreek's big 4 (typically their 4th runner, I believe) unknowingly broke her foot the days before NXN regionals. She raced on it anyways...went to the doctor afterwards and found out her season was over.

Beavercreek already had depth issues---this eliminates them from the top 5 and likely from the top 10.

All 7 Beavercreek’s runners that were in the championship are in the entries list for NXN.

MEGAN NOWE F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# JULZ WILLIAMS F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# SAVANNAH ROARK F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# KENDALL HOBBS F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# GRACE DAILEY F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# TAYLOR EWERT F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

# JODIE PIERCE F BEAVERCREEK MIDWEST

So if she is not racing, will Beavercreek be running 6 this time?

Just saw a tweet where her coach says Julz William's season "is over" (after NXR). Agree without her they likely will finish something like 10-15th vs top 5 with her. Tough break for her and the team.

What happened vs what I thought?

Girls

Saratoga Springs top 4 runners excelled while 3 of Central Oregons top 5 and 4 of FMs top 5 did worse than thought, as did Spokane Norths top 3 and 5th. Niwots top 3 had great days and the rest of the team performed to expectations. Clovis's top 4 ran well, their 5th was off a little.

Boys

Great Oaks top 5 ran as well as expected, but 6 and 7 had bad days and did not displace Newbury Park 5th. Other than the 4th guy, Newbury Park ran to expectations.

Dana Hills as a team ran slightly worse than projected but still got 8th. St Charles East 1-6 ran better than expected.

Louden Valleys 4th and 5th did a lot worse than expected, while Draper (Corner Canyon) was slightly better across the board. Wheaton South's #1 ran very well, but their 3-5 were below my expectations.