Will Joshua Cheptegei cement his place among the all-time greats next year? His schedule seems really ambitious

I’m a big fan of Cheptegei. I think he can go sub-58 in the half. He has pretty solid speed. 5k might be a bit out of his wheelhouse but 10k at the Olympics will be interesting. My money is on him over Farah.

Cheptegei is a star. He is in his prime now and must maximize his potential.

The gold medal 10k is the big objective of the season of course and he should focus on it. I would favour him over Farah, but the Ethiopians are a big threat. Kejelcha nearly got him in Doha.

For WR attempt, his road record will Vaporflys is now better than his track record. We will see if he can reverse it, but I don't think he has a the WR in him and we don't know ow much the Vaporfly improved his performance. Half marathon attempt would be strange , but it is softer, top talents run on track and then on marathon, the half is a side event.

Abeneziel wrote:

Cheptegei is a star. He is in his prime now and must maximize his potential.

The gold medal 10k is the big objective of the season of course and he should focus on it. I would favour him over Farah, but the Ethiopians are a big threat. Kejelcha nearly got him in Doha.

For WR attempt, his road record will Vaporflys is now better than his track record. We will see if he can reverse it, but I don't think he has a the WR in him and we don't know ow much the Vaporfly improved his performance. Half marathon attempt would be strange , but it is softer, top talents run on track and then on marathon, the half is a side event.

His first big objective of the season will be the World Half in Gdynia on March 29th. After that he will focus on the track season with his eyes on the big prize at the Olympics. He will start as the big favourite for the 10,000m, and as it will be before the 5,000m, he might give it a go for the double as he got nothing to lose.

It will be very interesting to see what races will he use as a tune-up for the olympics, as the DL will only offer 3,000m races, though still some meets are keen to host some 5,000m or 10,000m too, outside the tv window.

Also, i disagree with you as Joshua's 26'48"36 came in the Worlds final, without serious pacemaking and the conditions weren't bad, but still far from ideal(at 23-24C, you can't expect the best result possible). Also, they finished the last km in 2'28"(almost 3k WR pace), so they clearly had a lot left(Joshua and Yomif), so if they were paced evenly for a fast time, i think Joshua could have ran around his current road pr. Therefore, if he attempts for the fastest time possible on the track with good pacing and conditions, i believe Joshua can run under 26'30".

After the Olympics, he can have a go at the track world record if he feels he got a chance to give it a scare, and if not he can have a go at the half world record. I have to say that it ain't soft at all and definitely not a side event, Geoffrey Kamworor's 58:01 is a heck of a time. If Joshua prepares specifically for it and runs on a very flat course with great weather, he can beat it, but honestly, even if he does improve it, it won't be by much.

P.S : Given the 5,000m at the Olympics is on August 7th, he would have enough time to try for both track wr and half wr. Given Valencia half will be at the end of october, an attempt for the track wr could be done at the end of august to take advantage from the peak shape after the Olympics and there would still be 2 months to recover and get back in shape for attempting the half wr (as he did this year, Doha 10,000m and almost 2 months later Valencia 10k road record). Exciting times for Cheptegei for sure!

Will Kam defend his title? If he wants to run the marathon at the Olympics then probably not, but it would be a mouthwatering showdown.

Mzungu in Iten wrote:

His first big objective of the season will be the World Half in Gdynia on March 29th.

You're sure that Cheptegei is going to run in HM WC? If yes, it would be epic run: Cheptegei vs Kamworor.

Oops. Kamworor is probably not going to run there.

"With the new season not starting until February, Kamworor believes he will be ready for his assault, especially when the two meet in London Marathon in April.

"I have won three World Half Marathon Championship titles and my fans keep on asking me when I would go for the world record in full marathon," he added."

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/22/c_138576302.htm

I agree that he can probably break 26:30, and is the favorite for gold in the 10000, but the WR on the track might yet be out of reach. His potential to get a half WR is just too hard to figure when he hasn't raced above 10000. I know that 10k capability is a better predictor of a good half than a good half is to a marathon, but for now I'll say he cannot get the WR in the half marathon. Not in 2020.

Oh Please wrote:

I agree that he can probably break 26:30, and is the favorite for gold in the 10000, but the WR on the track might yet be out of reach. His potential to get a half WR is just too hard to figure when he hasn't raced above 10000. I know that 10k capability is a better predictor of a good half than a good half is to a marathon, but for now I'll say he cannot get the WR in the half marathon. Not in 2020.

He does have the 15km world record as well

A half-marathon in March and the Olympic 10,000 meters in the summer? Not all that ambitious.

Tron wrote:

Oh Please wrote:

I agree that he can probably break 26:30, and is the favorite for gold in the 10000, but the WR on the track might yet be out of reach. His potential to get a half WR is just too hard to figure when he hasn't raced above 10000. I know that 10k capability is a better predictor of a good half than a good half is to a marathon, but for now I'll say he cannot get the WR in the half marathon. Not in 2020.

He does have the 15km world record as well

In that case, yea I guess he probably could get the half WR as well.

Alll wrote:

Oops. Kamworor is probably not going to run there.

"With the new season not starting until February, Kamworor believes he will be ready for his assault, especially when the two meet in London Marathon in April.

"I have won three World Half Marathon Championship titles and my fans keep on asking me when I would go for the world record in full marathon," he added."

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-11/22/c_138576302.htm

100% that if healthy, Cheptegei will make his debut at the half world champs.

As for Kam, he is so talented he can really do whatever he wants. Do i think he can break the marathon world record? Yes, definitely. But i doubt he can do it next year, i would like to see him lower the half wr even more next year and have a last try at the 10,000m, before switching completely to the marathon from 2021 onwards.

What i'm sure is that next year London marathon will probably be the greatest marathon ever as many will try to impress to secure an olympic berth. Count in Kipchoge, Bekele, Kamworor and surely a mix of other top runners(Kipserem is confirmed), and it will be the race of the century. They will go out on world record pace if weather allows(Kipchoge will request it surely, Kam will agree and this time Bekele will be ready too hopefully), and who knows what will happen...a day we'll never forget.

I believe once Kipchoge, Bekele and Kamworor call it a day, the marathon world record will indeed read 2:00:XX.

His chances are much better for the half. Hard to believe anyone could look at 26:17, then decide to devote a portion of their prime chasing that number.