Katelyn Touhy 15:36!!!

I am sure her own words have no meaning, but all I have seen is that she had the goal of meeting the standard so she could run at the Olympic trials.

donairs wrote:

What huge dent? She can peak in June and again in November. Trials come once every 4 years. She hasn't even chosen a university yet.

I think you made my point, trials come once every 4 years so if she decides to do it, it's going to be to try to qualify, not just for the fun of it like someone suggested.

Well you can technically only peak once a year but besides that how many times do we see NCAA XC coaches say stuff like "so and so raced late in the summer so we're starting slow, or going to redshirt this fall". There is a reason for that. Agreed though June isn't super late.

But as stated, I feel her best course is to forget the trials this year, have a great last HS year, go to college and keep improving and potentially be in amazing shape come 2024.

Brook Rauber was in a different race --won the D with an enormous margin. If pushed she would have been 15:xx though probably not as fast as Touhy. Unlike last year, there are a number of girls in the 157-161 range. While I would not bet against Touhy, statistically they are close enough to keep within striking range. For example, Marles Starliper and Sydney Thordvalsen both have 161 and also have not had lost all season either. If someone is willing to stay within contact of Touhy she runs the risk of losing as her top end speed is not great and seems to have more problems when she is not front running away from the field. Unfortuantely, 2 national races dilutes the talent pool so it is somewhat of a moot point to say who the real national champion is unless you are Lukas Verbikas who had a schedule permitting him to race at both San Diego and Portland.

Actually.... wrote:

Hounddogharrier wrote:

The rule is they all have to be in the same school district . Not necessarily all on the same high school team but enrolled in the school on the day of the regionals . I recall a girls team from the middle of the state about 10 years ago who had a girl who was top 5 in the state for another school enroll in their district before regionals . They made it to NXN

If you’re referring to East Aurora in 2013 they did not qualify to NXN as a team that year. Sophia Tasselmeyer who transferred to EA after the state meet did qualify as an individual.

That’s it , but she did run the regionals for EA, correct ?

Last year she had at least 2 performances above 170 but not this year. Like stocks, past pefforamce is no guarantee of future success. Also, in another post I mention there is much more overall depth in field strength compared with last year. She has the greatest chance of winning of anyone. However, some people are making her out to be some world class phenom like Zola Budd with much faster track PRs was at that age and that is simply not the case

No way--Dibaba averaged Kathelyn's PR of 4:33 fora 5 K in running 14:11. Touhy has run 2:09 800 m for a PR which is not indicative of world class potential though I am sure she will improve. Some Ethiopian just ran a 44:20 15 K. which people are equating to sub 14 effort. We have nobody who get run anywhere near 47 flat even--it is a different ballgame out there.

I agree, in the discussion of the PNW NXR when I saw how fast Thorvaldson went out (5:03 I think) I posted she might be the one to try to go with Tuohy at NXN. She is not afraid to mix it up with the best - for example at NBI earlier this year when she hung pretty close to Hart the whole way. Hart is running faster this year than last as well and she will be in Portland, as will Claire Walters though Walters will have a team race to think about. I don't know if we have seen Tuohy really go hard since Manhattan, perhaps at Bear Mountain when she slipped. It might be interesting to see what happens if someone is with her through a fast first mile. I do think there is a difference between 5:03 at (soft and wet) Portland and 5:03 on the PNW course though. But yes, a lot of girls running fast times this year.

I follow Josh Stone in my area who had an amazingly good race running the 4th fastest time of the day. Still nobody jumps down from running low 16s 5 K to the equivalent close to 15 K--I wouid bet the farm that the course is short.

Tuohy is averaging in the mid 160s

About 165

All the other girls are averaging at the best 155

So unless she is injured or sick I really doubt anybody's going to be within 15 seconds of our

She's smart she knows she's going to have to give a big effort so I'm sure she's holding back and has more of an incentive to hold back than some of the other runners. She might not be quite as dominant as she was the last two years and especially two years ago but I really don't think given the statistics we are seeing that anyone's going to be really challenging her.

Interesting point. It is always more exciting when you have more than one serious contender so the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Last year, I think the field already conceded the win to Touhy shortly after the start. Hopefully this year will be different. Two other possible contenders are Zofia Dudek (who also beat Katelynn Hart) and Sydney Mascarelli though they may opt for San Diego. Anyone can have an off day or have a breakthrough performance so you never really know what will happen.

That numerical scale is just a guideline (though a reasonably accurate one). It is more useful for within a race comparison (statistically standard errors within a group) than across races or groups. Conditions can vary considerably and intangibles like a home course advantage come into play--the developer of that scale at tullyrunners.com repeatedly issues this caveat. I do not see muc h of a difference between someone like Touhy running a 165 unchallenged and Sydney Thordvalson running a 160 or Marles Starliper running a 161 not being pushed. It is hard to know who was going all out if any. If all 3 are in the same race things get more interesting and tactics come more into play. Touhy seems to actually run better being a front runner whereas others prefer to hold back and kick hard at the end.

Dudek isn't running NXN. Running something in Europe instead.

Katelyn is not quite where she was last year whereas Hart and Starliper are stronger so hopefully this will make for a more interesting/less certain outcome. BTW, Taylor Ewert is probably the one real olympic prospect in the whole field as her racewalking times are actually more competitive than her running. This is amazing considering she is one of the best hs steeplechasers we have ever had. Somehow she seems to be under the radar--I would never count her out. She lost only once this season to Zofia Dudek who has potential to win either Nike or Footlocker.

But if you take into account all the information

And the fact that Tuohy has consistently been running significantly higher speed ratings by about 10 points

It would be incredible upset if anyone can beat her

And really surprising if anyone can stay within 15 seconds

Tuohy has consistently been able to hit speed ratings in the 170s and this season in the mid 160s

It also seems like her strength and athleticism only get magnified on tough course conditions

Again if anyone else had consistently put up speed ratings close to her I would say sure you never know

I just think you're under estimating the Gap I mean no one else is averaging in the 160s with their speed ratings. The only way she loses if she's sick or injured

Anyway I'm not guaranteeing that Tuohy wins

I'm just saying there's nothing in the numbers anyone else is posting that makes it likely that they'll be able to stay with her

I mean all of these girls have been running at Elite level for several years now

Katelyn hard thorvilson Claire Walters Brook robber these are going to be the girls chasing Tuohy and they've all been running for several years now and none of them have put up any time this year that makes it seem likely of an upset

I just think the speed ratings historically have been really accurate. And the only way she would have competition is if someone was posting competitive speed rating times. And clearly no one is.

But with that said I think that is going to be an awesomely competitive race for second and for the podium spots for the second and third Podium spots and of course there's a reason they race because anything can happen and you never know about how everyone is feeling on any given day so it's certainly should be

Jogger Hobby wrote:

She looks like a 400m runner here. Is she a senior now?

Moral of the story: young female athletes should not be afraid to gain mass to get faster.

Tuohy ran her 168 in late October (Oct 29). Since then, her speed rating has gone down to 166 and then 164.83 (in her most recent race). The other top girls on the other hand have been progressing in November (different trajectory). Thorvaldson, with her recent 160 .13 (Nov 16) is certainly one to look out for.

Usually, Tuohy peaks in early October. This year, she started later and her peak may have been moved to late October.

If you look at last year, Tuohy peaked at 177 (Oct 6), but then was down to a 167 by the time NXN came around.

She still has a lead, but not by that much. She may not drop by 10 speed rating points from her Oct 29 peak, but if she goes down to a 163 or 162 by NXN, there are certainly a few girls that have a shot to achieve that.

We will certainly see in the next couple of weeks if Tuohy’s speed rating stagnates or continues to go down (or improves).

I think anyone who puts much significance on the speed ratings from the NY State meet is kidding themselves. Conditions for the race Saturday seem to be pretty good. This Saturday should be a better measure although how hard she pushes is an unknown. There should not be anyone in the race close to her is she is running hard at all. But if I was her I would save something for the NXR and especially the NXN.

gotta say I'm a bit confused by the importance that people put on speed ratings from different races or differnt time periods. There is alot of talk about Tuohy slowing down this year because her speed ratings have dropped. Technically I guess you'er right, but in watching the races this year vs last she certainly seems to be running the races differntly. Last year she seemed to be pushing hard for PB's and course records. She was finishing pretty hard even though she wasn't challenged. This year she seems to be putting it into cruise control once she gets her lead. I don't think speed ratings take into account that she likely could have been easily 10-15seconds faster.

Other racers are certainly getting better. But Hart and Dudek were sprinting to the finish. Rauber and Walters both closed their state races out hard. Never saw Syd T, but good time for her.

But Tuohy has not been pushed for 2 years. She doesn't seem concerned about accomplishments this year (besides her team)....just win, and move on.

I do believe the other girls have got better, but I don't think Tuohy's speed rating are any indication of her race potential.

I hope for a close race...but am not expecting it at all.

I wish them all the best!!