Is Jared Ward a lock for the US Olympic Team in Rio?

I still feel like Rupp is a lock. With his Olympic spot on the line, I think he clearly could have run 2:09:xx or better in Chicago. Korir is also probably a lock, though I find him less convincing since he is still so new to the marathon. After that, it is wide open. Ward is kind of the Brian Sell of 2020... he looks like he should get a spot on paper, but he needs everything to go right since he is just not as a talented as guys like Hall, Rupp, and Ritz. An off day or a big performance from a dark horse could easily keep him out of Tokyo.

I also agree that Lagat is a serious threat. Even at 43, he has a ton of upside since he is still learning the marathon. The trials are going to be a treat!

Lagat is a 2:12 guy. He is not even remotely a serious threat. There a heaps of Americans much faster than that. Hell, even Abdi is faster than him.

AP5000 wrote:

Lagat is a 2:12 guy. He is not even remotely a serious threat. There a heaps of Americans much faster than that. Hell, even Abdi is faster than him.

Vaporflys will get him over the top

Women's team:

1. Emily Sisson

2. Desi Lindon

3. Jordan Hasay (would easily be #1 without the Chicago disaster)

4. Sara Hall

5. Aliphine Tuliamuk

6. Amy Cragg (injury / lack of fitness)

7. Molly Huddle

8. Kellyn Taylor

9. Emma Bates

10. Taylor Ward

Eh? I'm sure I read a few years ago that Gwen Jorgensen was going to win Marathon gold in 2020 ;-)))

Don't overlook Eyestone's athletes. While he is producing a top tier NCAA program, he is also producing top tier American marathoners. It's tempting to say that McMillan will be in the mix at the trials, but it's probably too soon for that. If McMillan and had one more year of marathon experience, he could be up there with Jared Ward. And we have yet to see what Clayton Young will do at the marathon distance. I'm lower on him, though. But in another 4 years, it wouldn't be far fetched to think that Eyestone gets 2 runners to the Olympics in the marathon.

Eyestone Believer wrote:

Don't overlook Eyestone's athletes. While he is producing a top tier NCAA program, he is also producing top tier American marathoners. It's tempting to say that McMillan will be in the mix at the trials, but it's probably too soon for that. If McMillan and had one more year of marathon experience, he could be up there with Jared Ward. And we have yet to see what Clayton Young will do at the marathon distance. I'm lower on him, though. But in another 4 years, it wouldn't be far fetched to think that Eyestone gets 2 runners to the Olympics in the marathon.

Roy Linkletter (BYU alum ) did a 2:16 debut recently. He will be trying to make Canada's team I think.

Rory (not Roy). And yes, he's Canadian.

blamb61 wrote:

Roy Linkletter (BYU alum ) did a 2:16 debut recently. He will be trying to make Canada's team I think.

Calling it here on 11/5/19, just so you can go back and check after it has happened. Jim Walmsley or Parker Stinson will win the trials. Change my mind...

Korir/Rupp go 1/2 in any order. Ward in 3rd. If Rupp isn't healthy that opens the door for the approximately 20-25 guys who have run under 2:13. It could be warm. The course is hilly. I would expect people who we know have talent like Fauble, Mock. Stinson, Bumby, Llano, Droddy, Kibet, Estrada, Ritchie, Lagat, McMillan, Austin, Vail, Abdi, Derrick, Biwott. Haron Lagat, Tyler Pennel, John Raneri, all dark horses. Half marathon folks that could threaten include Kebenei, Chelimo, and True.

Being in the top-10, even in the top-20-25, is going to be an impressive feat. I think the top-3 are just enough of the rest but nothing is ever a lock in the marathon. I wouldn't be surprised if any name up here makes the team.

The women's race looks great too.

Give me Sisson, Huddle, and Linden. Not sold on Hall + Hasay + Cragg. Taylor is my pick for 4th. Kipyego is a question mark. Bates could be in the top-5. Tuliamuk and Bruce will also contend. I think the 11 listed here are head & shoulders better than the rest but there are so many good women running the marathon right now. Kieffer, Thweatt, Roecker, Bluske, are my dark horses.

Super excited for the Trials!

And Also Abdi wrote:

^^^ And then I forgot to say Abdi Abdiraham. He just ran 2:11:30's on the more challenging New York course. He would've been right next to or in front of Mock at Chicago. So I'd say he's the #4 guy right now.

Korir

Rupp

Ward

Abdi

Mock/Jacob Riley/Stinson/Lagat/McMillan/Bumbalough

How much would the press eat it up, if Abdi, at 42, made the Olympic Marathon team!

blamb61 wrote:

Eyestone Believer wrote:

Don't overlook Eyestone's athletes. While he is producing a top tier NCAA program, he is also producing top tier American marathoners. It's tempting to say that McMillan will be in the mix at the trials, but it's probably too soon for that. If McMillan and had one more year of marathon experience, he could be up there with Jared Ward. And we have yet to see what Clayton Young will do at the marathon distance. I'm lower on him, though. But in another 4 years, it wouldn't be far fetched to think that Eyestone gets 2 runners to the Olympics in the marathon.

But he no longer trains under Eyestone. He ran away from Provo like Nico. And probably ran into obscurity like Nico, too.

Roy Linkletter (BYU alum ) did a 2:16 debut recently. He will be trying to make Canada's team I think.

I know he trains in AZ now with a group. Just making point he is a BYU alum. Meant to type Rory. Hope he does well.

blamb61 wrote:

I know he trains in AZ now with a group. Just making point he is a BYU alum. Meant to type Rory. Hope he does well.

Yes, Rory is with Ben Rosario and NAZ Elite.

US Olympic Team in Rio: Rupp, Ward, and Keflezighi , in that order.

Korir , Ward , Walmsley

Shorter, Lindgren, Rodgers

and Richard Nixon will make a huge comeback and win the 2020 election

Korir

Rupp

Ward

Abdi

Mock/Jacob Riley/Stinson/Lagat/McMillan/Bumbalough

Agree with this, but Rupp will beat Korir...but Ward should grab third. If Rupp is injured I take Mock. Ward will run smart and make it.

Ideally: Lagat, Abdi, and Meb.