After his 2:10 in NYC, some consistent results, and 6th in Rio - is he as much of a lock as anyone for Tokyo/Sapporo?
After his 2:10 in NYC, some consistent results, and 6th in Rio - is he as much of a lock as anyone for Tokyo/Sapporo?
I was thinking if anyone is, it's him.
But the marathon is a bloody strange event.
More of a lock than Fauble??
Mock is no joke too! Young gun that may be improving fast enough to blast one at the trials.
Yes. He has already proven to perform well in warm conditions via 2016 trials and Rio. He’s an excellent racer and consistent.
He seems to be out most consistent marathoner. Level headed, even pacer. I’d be shocked if three people can beat him at the trials.
How many times do you have to be told? There is no such thing as a lock in the marathon.
lock it wrote:
More of a lock than Fauble??
Mock is no joke too! Young gun that may be improving fast enough to blast one at the trials.
Yes, Ward is more of a lock than Fauble. Ward hasn't had a bad race in a very long time, showing up at NYC half, Boston, now NYC full. Fauble's most two recent races were a DNF at New Haven 20k, and then 11th or so at TC 10 mile. In the 10 mile he got beat by over a minute to McMillan who just got beat by over a minute by Ward. And I would say McMillan and Mock are similar levels. A high 2:10:45 at Chicago is like a 2:11:45/2:12 at New York because of the more challenging elevation change at New York. So McMillan is in the same conversation now as Mock and all of the other guys that were right around 2:11 flat at Chicago.
Korir is the far ahead #1, I still think Rupp will be in good enough shape to be top 2 by February, and then we now have Ward emerging as the favorite for the 3rd spot... Everyone else will have to hope Rupp isn't healthy in time, or hope that Korir decides to focus on the track, or hope that Ward randomly runs terrible, something he hasn't done in quite a while.
^^^ And then I forgot to say Abdi Abdiraham. He just ran 2:11:30's on the more challenging New York course. He would've been right next to or in front of Mock at Chicago. So I'd say he's the #4 guy right now.
Korir
Rupp
Ward
Abdi
Mock/Jacob Riley/Stinson/Lagat/McMillan/Bumbalough
Oops, I just realized that my title is wrong. US Olympic Team in Tokyo**.
He wasn't a lock but he was certainly on the team in Rio and finished in the top 10 there.
And Also Abdi wrote:
^^^ And then I forgot to say Abdi Abdiraham. He just ran 2:11:30's on the more challenging New York course. He would've been right next to or in front of Mock at Chicago. So I'd say he's the #4 guy right now.
Korir
Rupp
Ward
Abdi
Mock/Jacob Riley/Stinson/Lagat/McMillan/Bumbalough
Can you imagine if Abdi made another Olympic team? That would be so sick. Would that make him the first person to ever make 5 nonconsecutive Olympic teams?
2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2020!
Not a lock, but I like his chances if he shows up on the line without an injury.
speculative steven wrote:
After his 2:10 in NYC, some consistent results, and 6th in Rio - is he as much of a lock as anyone for Tokyo/Sapporo?
The way you stated, "as anyone", I would have to say yes. The biggest thing he has going for him is consistency. Whereas, who knows what Rupp is up to, Korir needs more than one data point, Lagat is a wild card. Unlike previous years, I don't think anyone is a lock.
If I had to make a prediction today, I would guess that Rupp and Korir will battle for the win and Ward will battle with Fauble for the 3rd sport. My guess:
1. Rupp
2. Korir
3. Ward
Yes, Ward is a locked for Rio since he already ran that race.
Ward's only bad marathons are from when he is injured. Ward's ability to make the team will depend on if he can recover well from NYC and build back up again soon with an injury. One of the LRC videos showed Ward saying that he gave himself a 35% chance of making the team last time around. I'm no stat guy so my best guess would be that he has a 60% chance of making the team. Most the gains are from having 4 more years of experience which is valuable against a field of younger runners and also that he's been good for the past year. His probability would be higher except for the risk of injury.
My predictions.
1. Korir
2. Rupp
3. Ward
4. Fauble
5. McMillan
Yes more than Fauble wrote:
lock it wrote:
More of a lock than Fauble??
Mock is no joke too! Young gun that may be improving fast enough to blast one at the trials.
A high 2:10:45 at Chicago is like a 2:11:45/2:12 at New York because of the more challenging elevation change at New York
Korir is the far ahead #1, I still think Rupp will be in good enough shape to be top 2 by February, and then we now have Ward emerging as the favorite for the 3rd spot... Everyone else will have to hope Rupp isn't healthy in time, or hope that Korir decides to focus on the track, or hope that Ward randomly runs terrible, something he hasn't done in quite a while.
I think a 2:10:45 in Chicago is more like a 2:13 low in NY. NY is much more challenging. Only a handful of sub 2:10's and 2:25's there every several years. I think Ward 2:10 high was probably worth 2:08 low/2:07 high in Chicago. His 2:09 mid in Boston would also support that.. So Korir/Ward are both in similar flat marathon shape, but I give Ward the edge because of marathon experience, experience on hilly courses, and championship experience including 6th at Rio. Korir got 11th in Amsterdam and was dragged to a 2:07:56. He's never ran a marathon where he had to practice patience and surging and navigating energy levels with hills. That's what the trials will be all about. I'd give him an exception if he were a 2:04 guy, but he's nearly a 2:08 guy, not even close to a lock IMO.
I say, Rupp, Ward, Abdi, Korir, McMillan, Fauble in that order
I'm happy for all those sub 2:12 guys in Chicago, but you get fantastic weather, a flat course, perfect pacing, people to run with the whole way, nice city, loud crowd, and some vaporfly's (or prototypes) and that's what you get. It ain't gon be pretty in Atlanta come February.
I think Lagat is gonna make it.
I'll go with Rupp, Ward, and Lagat.
Don’t sleep on Aaron Fletcher. Dude’s been laying low in Alaska crushing course records at minor races. He’s got a shot.
Not only is Jared Ward a lock for the Rio Olympic team, I would bet my house and entire life savings on his finishing in the top 10 there. Hell, I will go out on a limb and say he runs 2:11 for 6th