Predict My half based on this 18 mile run splits heart rate included

You think that your heart rate data is wrong, right? So that heart rate info. doesn't provide any insight.

Are those elevation numbers real? If so, is your race going to be straight downhill like this run?

My heartrate data is correct as I use the same monitor every time as you can see there are fluctuations during the runit goes up when I am going up hill. My resting heart rate is about 43. Also this is a 18 mile run so the whole thing was not downhill. But the 8 miles was mostly downhill where I live it's hard to find a flat course I do enough training up hill and wanted the legs to turnover a bit but the half will be super flat for the one I am doing.

I also use the same heart rate monitor for every run. The fact that I use it for every run does not make it accurate. Sometimes I believe that it is relatively accurate, but sometimes it is obviously incorrect. (My RHR is about the same as yours) Your data obviously shows one of the instances when the heart rate data is wrong. A. Doesn't increase as run progresses, in fact it shows the opposite. B. Doesn't increase when you increase your effort, in fact it shows the opposite.

You seem to have a net elevation loss of 1,167 ft.? over 18 miles. That's huge if it's real. Is that real?

I didn't calculate they net loss but it's probably is true I live in a very hilly area. I don't get why thats so hard to believe. I do runs where you gain over 2000 feet in 6 miles near my house.

The tempo portion is massively downhill. Post it with Strava's grade-adjusted paces.

*runs 6:00 pace, heart rate ~150*

*runs 5:00 pace, heart rate ~120*

“My heart rate monitor is accurate because I use it for every run”

Yeah, buddy, sure it is. Now get back on the short bus, will you?

Guytryingtorun wrote:

I didn't calculate they net loss but it's probably is true I live in a very hilly area. I don't get why thats so hard to believe. I do runs where you gain over 2000 feet in 6 miles near my house.

I too live in a hilly area, but pretty much all of my runs are net zero elevation gain because I start and end at the same location. I think that it would be hard for me to find a good place to run with a large net gain or net loss without ending up far from where I started. Maybe you parked a car somewhere so that you could have a nice downhill run. Maybe you are practicing for a downhill race. I don't know if this is true, so I was asking you.

To an outside observer your data looks pretty odd (heart rate is obviously erroneous which makes people question the accuracy of other data like elevation which is a huge net downhill).

You were asking for a prediction based on this data. Unless your race will be massively downhill like this run, then it's difficult to use this run as an accurate predictor.

If you're in a really hilly area where GPS signal gets interrupted, then you may want to question the accuracy of the mileage and pace data as well. Does the data seem like it makes reasonable sense? Does it compare well with other workouts?

Answers to these questions as well as detail about other workouts and your overall training would help anonymous strangers on a running forum make a better estimate of your potential too.

Runs 6 min up hill heart rate goes up

Runs 5min pace down hill around 120

Haters going to hate

But I guess your from Alabama don't have to say much after that

I guess there is no point in asking for predictions around here . I will post what happens after I finish the half. Also not sure how to get gap data.

There is 0 chance your HR data is accurate. Your HR dropped when you started running 1+ minute faster. Hows that possible? Also, did you run straight down a mountain? If this data is real, I'd imagine you can hold 5:25 on a course that isn't down a mountain for 13.1. I have nothing really to base that off though.

Guytryingtorun wrote:

Runs 6 min up hill heart rate goes up

Runs 5min pace down hill around 120

Haters going to hate

But I guess your from Alabama don't have to say much after that

Wtf are you smoking? Your HR dropped from 155 to 120 going from a 6:20 mile to a 5:06 mile in the same run with almost identical elevation drops. Heart rate goes up in that situation in every human

We can’t predict anything because you’re lying.

OP biked the "tempo" miles that's why the heart rate plummeted.

Guytryingtorun wrote:

Runs 6 min up hill heart rate goes up

Runs 5min pace down hill around 120

Haters going to hate

But I guess your from Alabama don't have to say much after that

Yeah, some people are so stupid.

1:24:12

Guytryingtorun wrote:

I guess there is no point in asking for predictions around here . I will post what happens after I finish the half. Also not sure how to get gap data.

Go to Strava (web browser, not app) and take a screenshot. It's there.

Here is the gap data .

I would think you could race 15 seconds/mile faster than a long tempo so that comes out to 68-69 minutes. It's too hard to say off one workout though.