Mr current PR is 16:43 set on a fast course in early September, I've had a string of bad races since then (like 17:00-17:10 on other fast courses in good conditions).
Today I did a HILLY 7 mile tempo in 41:51 (good weather). I did it 2 months ago in 42:55. It was very hard but not all out.
Could I run 16:10 at my conference meet on another fast course in 2 weeks? Season goal is sub 16 (it's my senior year, I know it's a big goal). People who I have beaten by a few seconds have run 16:25 on this course at other meets this season