May as well get this out of the way at the beginning: I only began running 2 years ago, and up until 5 months ago, was averaging 15-20 miles a week. So yes, I am the hobbiest of hobby jokers (no hydration belt though!).
That said, I ran the Staten Island Half last November in 1:32 off no specific training, which motivated me to take running more seriously. Ran the Brooklyn Half in 1:30 this year (again off 15-20 miles a week). I then committed to running the Chicago Marathon and immediately attempted to bump mileage up to 45 a week (and suffered every known overuse injury known to man – calf strain, patellar tendonitis, piriformis syndrome etc.). Took time off to get healthy, but as a result started my marathon prep late and have only been able to average 45-50 a week for the past 13 weeks.
I’m not following any specific plan, but this forum has been an invaluable resource to me. I do 2 workouts a week – 1 track or tempo run, and 1 long run (which I either run progressively or a portion at MPish). The rest is easy to moderate effort running.
After the injuries, I’ve been somewhat scared to race and re-injure myself, but I did do a solo 5k a few days ago to test my fitness and ran an 18:50 (on the back of my 10 heaviest days of training, ever). I’ve also done 3 20 milers in training, with the last one 10 miles easy (1:20) and 10 miles hard (1:10).
The question is: given that I don’t mind risking a complete blow-up, what would be an achievable stretch goal, if all comes together on the day? Is 3:05 possible? I have my fueling strategy down and have only ever negative split all the races I’ve run (although I know negative splitting as a 1st time marathoner is nigh on impossible). Any other advice is welcomed.
(Some particulars, if needed: 6’0, 155 lbs, 29 years old.)