Will Kipchoge go 1:58 in Vienna?

Or 1.57? But probably more like 1.56

I thought of titling this threat "Will Kipchoge go 1:57 in Vienna"

But then I thought of the logistics and it seems crazy. His primary goal, of course, will be to simply get under 2 hours.

If he wanted to break 1:58, he'd probably want to hit the first half close to 59 flat, and then do a slight negative split. But going out in 59-low would be risky, potentially jeopardizing his chances at going under 2.

Unless he runs on pure hate for the second half, and breaks Kamworor's new half marathon record during the second half of the race. Then he could totally go 1:57. Now 1:56 -- he'll need Nike's next-generation% shoes, plus pure hate

The main thing that makes running slow is air resistance. So taking the air resistance out, Kipchoge should be targeting a sub 1 hour marathon, not just sub 2 hours.

Dnf. Bekele's performance will haunt him

He'll beat the theorectical 1:57:58 limit

No.

How big is the clock in front of Kipchoge? How fast he'll go all depends on the clock.

Bekele fan wrote:

Dnf. Bekele's performance will haunt him

Although, Bekele has had and amazing the career and quite possibly the greatest overall distance runner that has ever lived, it is doubtful that he will have the opportunity to duplicate or improve on his Berlin performance. His marathon career has been too hit or miss.

He has only won 2 marathon majors - both Berlin, both the years the Kipchoge didn't run.

Injury free and properly trained Bekele is the best, even in Marathon and even at 37.

If he had better pace makers he would have beaten the record. At age of 25-3 he would have crushed it.

pattylover2001 wrote:

He'll beat the theorectical 1:57:58 limit

Is that the theoretical clean limit or the the theoretical doped to the gills limit?

5000Legends wrote:

Injury free and properly trained Bekele is the best, even in Marathon and even at 37.

If he had better pace makers he would have beaten the record. At age of 25-3 he would have crushed it.

Same could be said for Kipchoge. Boit made it to about 25km before Kipchoge overtook him, meaning he ran almost the entire 2nd half solo. Kipchoge could have broken 2:01 “if he had better pacers”

kipchoge.watcher wrote:

Unless he runs on pure hate for the second half, and breaks Kamworor's new half marathon record during the second half of the race. Then he could totally go 1:57. Now 1:56 -- he'll need Nike's next-generation% shoes, plus pure hate

I missed hearing about pure hate.

Old is as old does wrote:

Bekele fan wrote:

Dnf. Bekele's performance will haunt him

Although, Bekele has had and amazing the career and quite possibly the greatest overall distance runner that has ever lived, it is doubtful that he will have the opportunity to duplicate or improve on his Berlin performance. His marathon career has been too hit or miss.

He has only won 2 marathon majors - both Berlin, both the years the Kipchoge didn't run.

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we were able to bump this in three years? You know, because there’s no way Bekele could ever top that fluke 2:03?

I think Kipchoge's run is probably ~30 seconds better than Bekele's. I raced in Berlin last year. It was about 5 degrees hotter than ideal and a bit too sunny, not to mention that his pacers $hit the bed. This doesn't matter much for the rest of us, but when running the fastest marathon ever, every little detail matters. I think he was worth close to 2:01 flat that day with the variables as optimized as Bekele (slightly better weather, slightly better pacing). Bekele is more talented, and it's amazing that he did this coming off of being overweight and injured, but I'd pick Kipchoge without question in future matchups. I don't expect Bekele to improve on this, but Kipchoge has just gotten slightly better and better over the years, and I wouldn't even be surprised if he went 2:00:xx in a legitimate race before he retires (though it would probably mean doing it in 2 years in Berlin, which is a big ask from a guy already this old and already at what could easily be his peak). I think Kipchoge will run 1:59:50-ish in Vienna. He's better than he was at Nike Breaking 2, but he's not 90 seconds better.

He will roll an ankle on one of the 1000 chestnuts which are covering the race course (I have been jogging there yesterday, believe me), go down in flames like usain bolt in his last race and become a soccer player with Red Bull Salzburg, Austria's most successful and still most irrelevant soccer club.

kipchoge.watcher wrote:

Sure, they're officially looking to break 2 hours. But how does Bekele's race yesterday affect Kipchoge's probably performance in Vienna?

I'll bet he thinks 1:59 isn't good enough anymore. I'll bet he goes out in 59:40 or so and then somewhere around 35K will just ACCELERATE and see if he can clock 1:58 something.

Only by doing that, in my book, will he reclaim his throne as head and shoulders above the rest now that Bekele is basically just as fast.

Yeah sure thing you idiot, he'll go 59 flat and 59 flat for a 1:58 flat. Do you even run or are you a hobby jogger looking for attention? Your book is a book that only you subscribe to and you read. Wow, I mean WOW!

Moraner Alert wrote:

kipchoge.watcher wrote:

Sure, they're officially looking to break 2 hours. But how does Bekele's race yesterday affect Kipchoge's probably performance in Vienna?

I'll bet he thinks 1:59 isn't good enough anymore. I'll bet he goes out in 59:40 or so and then somewhere around 35K will just ACCELERATE and see if he can clock 1:58 something.

Only by doing that, in my book, will he reclaim his throne as head and shoulders above the rest now that Bekele is basically just as fast.

Yeah sure thing you idiot, he'll go 59 flat and 59 flat for a 1:58 flat. Do you even run or are you a hobby jogger looking for attention? Your book is a book that only you subscribe to and you read. Wow, I mean WOW!

U mad, bro , or just can't read? Lemme break things down:

(A) Clearly my description allows for a 1:58:59, which wouldn't require any 59 flats.

(B) I run AND I'm a hobby jogger, by LRC standards, since I have yet to crack 2:40 in the marathon. Have mercy, please!

(C) Why would I have to subscribe to (and then read) a book I wrote?

(D) Ahh, but at least you warn the public with your name that a moraner speaketh

It’s a non record set up stunt. Drop the in and out pacers and the vehicle that breaks the wind for them and go for a legit sub 2 hour Marathon.

What I liked about Berlin this year was it was a real race with guys trading leads after 30k, trying to drop each other. It wasn’t a boring time trial for once and it produced a fast time.

I think Kipchoge will run 1:59 low, and maybe get 1:58 high. My guess is that Kipchoge will be motivated by Bekele's race. But Kipchoge is supremely confident that he will certainly break 2, and he might surprise further. If he's below target pace as he will likely be, I'll bet Kipchoge will really dig deep in that last 10k to get the best time he can. He definitely will not be satisfied running 1:59:50. He wants more than that.