A black swan event is an occurrence (such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sinking of the Titanic, the conquest of the Aztec Empire by a tiny band of Spanish conquistadors) that was completely outside the realm of expectations.
I believe Bekele's performance today was a black swan event of sorts, since basically nobody expected him to scare the WR.
Another T&F black swan was Billy Mills' surprise victory in the 1964 Olympics 10000 meters. What others can you think of?
Ritz 12:56.
Solinsky 26:59
Des Linden winning Boston or probably more unexpected was Sarah Sellers 2nd place and Krista Duchene 3rd place.
He didn’t win, but Nijel Amos’ run in the 2012 London 800m final. Who was this kid? And he tied as the fourth fastest performer ever???
Bob Beamon in 68. Not that he won, but the magnitude of the jump.
colorunner123 wrote:
A black swan event is an occurrence (such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sinking of the Titanic, the conquest of the Aztec Empire by a tiny band of Spanish conquistadors) that was completely outside the realm of expectations.
I believe Bekele's performance today was a black swan event of sorts, since basically nobody expected him to scare the WR.
Another T&F black swan was Billy Mills' surprise victory in the 1964 Olympics 10000 meters. What others can you think of?
This is nowhere near a black swan event. You might want to read that definition again.
10.49 in '84, 9.79 in '88, 3.50.46 in '93 ...
This was definitely possible wrote:
colorunner123 wrote:
A black swan event is an occurrence (such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sinking of the Titanic, the conquest of the Aztec Empire by a tiny band of Spanish conquistadors) that was completely outside the realm of expectations.
I believe Bekele's performance today was a black swan event of sorts, since basically nobody expected him to scare the WR.
Another T&F black swan was Billy Mills' surprise victory in the 1964 Olympics 10000 meters. What others can you think of?
This is nowhere near a black swan event. You might want to read that definition again.
Yes, just because an outcome is surprising or unexpected does not make it a black swan. There has to be an impact on the course of history or on the direction of the sport.
Maybe Keino's win over Ryun in 1968, or Bikila's victory in Rome would qualify.
OK I stand corrected. Technically, it doesn't meet the definition of a Black Swan. Sheesh.
I don’t think this is nearly as surprising as Ritz 12:56 or Solinsky 26:59.
Even past his prime and half assing it Bekele had in 2:03:03. We knew if he had a good race he had faster than that in him (and VFs on his feet).
oiuyl wrote:
This was definitely possible wrote:
This is nowhere near a black swan event. You might want to read that definition again.
Yes, just because an outcome is surprising or unexpected does not make it a black swan. There has to be an impact on the course of history or on the direction of the sport.
Maybe Keino's win over Ryun in 1968, or Bikila's victory in Rome would qualify.
Abebe Bikila is a good one. An unknown Ethiopian running barefoot wins Olympic gold and breaks the WR.
And it provides the world a first glimpse of the incredible untapped talent of East African runners.
Cassius Clay's win over Sonny Liston in their first fight where Liston was the heavy favorite.
Bolt's 2008 Olympics.
Dave Wottle 1972 Olympics.
colorunner123 wrote:
A black swan event is an occurrence (such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sinking of the Titanic, the conquest of the Aztec Empire by a tiny band of Spanish conquistadors) that was completely outside the realm of expectations.
I believe Bekele's performance today was a black swan event of sorts, since basically nobody expected him to scare the WR.
Another T&F black swan was Billy Mills' surprise victory in the 1964 Olympics 10000 meters. What others can you think of?
Bob Beamon FTW.
hemorrhoid wrote:
Dave Wottle 1972 Olympics.
How was that a black swan event? Wottle was one of the favorites after tying the WR in winning the US champs.
Jenny Simpson winning gold in 2011 was more unexpected. But that wasn't a black swan either.
What about Ben Johnson's dq 3 days after winning gold and breaking the WR? Johnson winning gold wasn't a black swan but the dq was.
fdasfadsf wrote:
Bolt's 2008 Olympics.
I second this.
girl watcher wrote:
Cassius Clay's win over Sonny Liston in their first fight where Liston was the heavy favorite.
Along those lines, the Jets winning the Super Bowl.
Broadway Joey wrote:
girl watcher wrote:
Cassius Clay's win over Sonny Liston in their first fight where Liston was the heavy favorite.
Along those lines, the Jets winning the Super Bowl.
That Super Bowl was the greatest fluke in football history.
The Colts had incredibly bad luck that day.
Broadway Joey wrote:
girl watcher wrote:
Cassius Clay's win over Sonny Liston in their first fight where Liston was the heavy favorite.
Along those lines, the Jets winning the Super Bowl.
There were still just the two teams.
A bigger Black Swan were the 2000 Rams before the season started....3rd string unknown QB at the helm from the first game. MVP by year end and Super Bowl Champ.
oiuyl wrote:
This was definitely possible wrote:
This is nowhere near a black swan event. You might want to read that definition again.
Yes, just because an outcome is surprising or unexpected does not make it a black swan. There has to be an impact on the course of history or on the direction of the sport.
Maybe Keino's win over Ryun in 1968, or Bikila's victory in Rome would qualify.
Lydiard in 1960 (Halberg, Snell and Magee).
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year