She raced a 1500 at indoor worlds, 3k too. She's also run many finals and has what it takes. I'd say a 14:34 5k runner can handle the rounds for 1500.
She raced a 1500 at indoor worlds, 3k too. She's also run many finals and has what it takes. I'd say a 14:34 5k runner can handle the rounds for 1500.
I would love for Shelby to win but why is everyone counting out Faith Kipyegon (medaled at every Championship since youth) who just won the Kenyan trials less than 2 weeks ago.
Sksjxnxjzj wrote:
Runningmanic2 wrote:
I agree she should certainty be ready to go and definitely a medal threat. However what is against her is experience. She’s never raced the 1500m at a global championship nor has ever run three rounds of 1500 meters. What makes Jenny Simpson so successful at global champs is her strength + tactical ability to handled 3 tough rounds of 1500 meter running and ability to peak well. Houlihan does not have experience in that category so I’m not sure certain I’d hand her the gold medal and the way Simpson has been performing lately (PR and CR in fifth ave mile at age 32) this might be her year
She raced a 1500 at indoor worlds, 3k too. She's also run many finals and has what it takes. I'd say a 14:34 5k runner can handle the rounds for 1500.
1500 indoor at worlds is a) not 3 rounds, and b) always a watered down field. You can't compare and indoor world championship to any outdoor global championship they are and will always be different. She has never run a finals or any type of rounds in the 1500 meter distance at an outdoor global championship. Also, The ability to run a fast 5k does not equate to the ability to be able to efficiently manage 3 rounds of 1500 meter racing at global championship. Look at Hassan, Muir, Klosterhalfen. All with faster 5k PBs than Houlihan and even all three of them are still unproven in a tactical 1500 meter race at the global championship level. Although Houlihan is still a good bet for a medal threat, she does not have the credentials nor experienced to me considered or even handed a favorite for gold. Results speak for themselves, and Simpson has rightfully earned all 4 of the global medals she has. Houlihan has none and you can't rationally automatically equate great 5k and 1500 PB times to a gold medal favorite status at worlds.
Is that not exactly what we are doing for Hassan?
Yes that is what exactly others are doing for Hassan. I also do not think she is favorite for gold even if she ran it fresh. She is still unproven at the distance at the global stage.
It will be interesting to see how the 10k goes. Hassan would love a slow pace for at least the first 5k. She might get her wish and only have to run really hard the last 2 or 3k. Haven't heard how fit Ayana is. I doubt Obirii tries to run it hard all the way.
I think this is Hassan's year. She reminds me of KB. He had the strength to go with a hard pace and no one could out kick him. She is that good right now.
Hassan won Bronze at 2015 worlds and in 2017 in the 5000m. This is more than any in the field except Kipyegon and Simpson can claim.
More importantly, she seems by some margin the fastest woman over the distance since Genzebe in 2015 form. (She has not run that fast but the negatively split mile WR seems to indicate at least 3:52-53 shape.) After early season I thought, Muir could maybe get there as well but with her injury this seems unlikely this year.
There is never certainty and after Brussels I also think the 5k would be more of a lock for Hassan. But she seems so strong that she would not have to take any chances with a tactical final. Besides that, her finish in Zurich was even better than Muir in DL London and I am not sure if Kipyegon came ever close to such a fast lap in a fast race (not one with the first 600m in jogging pace), so she need not be to afraid of a tactical race either. In addition to this, there will probably be a 3:57 runner with a very poor finish in that final, namely Tsegay. I don't think she has a realistic medal chance because she can only run fast when starting fast and usually in paced races. But it is very likely that she will at least try to force a fast pace to take the only small chance she has. Should Koko opt for the 1500m we got another one who wants fast from the beginning. The tacticians like Simpson cannot count on playing everyone into their hands.
midwest is best wrote:
Dibaba is out, Hassan is running 5k/10k, Kipyegon and Muir have been injured. Seems like the gold medal is there for the taking for Houlihan.
It seems to me that a recovered Muir will hand it down to everyone with Debaba out and Hassan moving up.... she has about a second on the rest of the field.....
Hassan wrote:
Re: Houlihan. [snip] Let's not forget, Houlihan absolutely exploded onto the scene last year but prior to that wasn't anybody internationally. Compared to the likes of Kipyegon, Muir, Hassan, etc who have been running and winning Diamond Leagues and winning global medals for years, Shelby has is relatively inexperienced. That showed in Brussels last year when she let a suicidal large gap form on the 3rd lap and left it too late against someone as good as Muir, and in Pre this year where she did the same thing with Muir and Kipyegon. She was arguably fit enough to win both races but executed poorly. Experience helps.
Big Houlihan fan here, but in fast international races she has demonstrated a repeated tendency to either (a) go to sleep on the 3rd lap and leave too much ground to make up with her kick, or (b) she just doesn't want to make the 3rd lap hurt enough to keep up better, either out of aversion to the pain or fear/knowledge it will blunt her kick too much.
I am not sure which, but it has happened a number of times, and last year after I thought she had finally begun to address the issue, it reared its head again in Brussels when she let Muir get well away as pointed out above. I don't know if that was because she was supposedly fried at the end of the year, as someone else mentioned. But after it happened again at Pre this year, I began wondering if she may have some sort of mental block about it. Although in fairness, it may be she was just not in decent shape yet after her early season injury.
It's a head-scratcher — but assuming Schumacher has gotten her into shape, Worlds may be where we finally get an answer.
Tactical errors or doesn't want it to hurt? wrote:
Big Houlihan fan here, but in fast international races she has demonstrated a repeated tendency to...leave too much ground to make up with her kick...
It's a head-scratcher — but assuming Schumacher has gotten her into shape, Worlds may be where we finally get an answer.
Exactly! Like you, I hoped we'd learn whether Houlihan is more than a (really, really good) one trick pony this summer, but with all of the injuries & absences, we didn't. Maybe in Doha.
Hassan had in earlier years often made similar mistakes and positioned herself badly so that even the fastest finish was not enough to win. E.g. in one of the worlds indoor races in 2018 she ran actually faster than Dibaba for the last 500m or so but had been too far back so she could not catch. She basically made the same mistake in the Brussels 5000m but was so much stronger than the rest that she could afford it. But in a strong 1500m field noone can afford that, too fast and not enough track to catch them.
Houlihan is great over the last 100 m or 150 m. However El G showed that you don't have to have great finishing speed to run fast and win. Both Hassan and Klosterhalfen have run sub 2 minute 800 speed but also have the strength/speed to run under 14:30 in the 5000 m. If they are not afraid to front run and push the last 600 m, Houlihan's straight away speed probably won't help that much.
She was great over the last 150 meters last year, have yet to see it this year.
Jo72 wrote:
Hassan had in earlier years often made similar mistakes and positioned herself badly so that even the fastest finish was not enough to win. E.g. in one of the worlds indoor races in 2018 she ran actually faster than Dibaba for the last 500m or so but had been too far back so she could not catch. She basically made the same mistake in the Brussels 5000m but was so much stronger than the rest that she could afford it. But in a strong 1500m field noone can afford that, too fast and not enough track to catch them.
Not only that, until this year Hassan has rarely ever been able to sustain her kick down the homestretch. Even if she didn't make tactical errors, the bear would often jump on her back with 50 to 100m to go, where she'd fade badly from 1st or 2nd to 3rd or 4th or 5th. This is the first year she not only has improved her tactics (albeit with the occasional lapse like you mention in Brussels) but now can hold her kick all the way to line, plus her top-end kick speed is more fierce than before.
Only thing that concerns me is if perhaps she has peaked too early and might possibly be catching Worlds on the downside, though I hope not. Would love to see her and everybody else at the top of their games duking it out.
She's a medal contender. I wouldn't say she's the gold medal favorite. They may have been injured but Houlihan has not raced much this year. Not at all overseas. We just haven't seen enough of her to make a call. She is also prone to tactical misteps like last year in the Diamond League final. I like her chances at medalling if she doesn't allow herself to get gapped.
Jo72 wrote:
Idk what's up with Houlihan. In her breakout year 2018 she raced a lot and while she also made some mistakes, she had a few very good races, incl. DL wins and an AR. This year she only raced at Pre and USA's, and while she was good there it seems almost impossible to tell how the will fare against a real world class field on top their game.
She said in an interview that she was fried at the end of last year. Tired and not mentally into it. The results (two losses) showed. I think this year she is trying to avoid a repeat while preparing for the late World Championships date.
Houlihan won USA xc in dominating fashion in the winter and then had an injury setback. This might be why she hasn't been racing, but then it might just be Jerry's inclination not to race his athletes. What she showed last year was a kick in the last 100-150m that was more explosive than just about any kick you've seen among women. It reminded me of Webb's kick in June-July 2007. Does she have that this year? Hassan is in incredible form and will be hard to beat at any distance. She is capable of closing well under 60 even in a very fast race. I will pick her in any track race this year.
Not sure what form Kipyegon is in. She has been great at majors before. This might be shaping up into the conditions for another Simpson medal. She is expert at taking what is there in the absence of a dominating performer and especially in timing her kick so that those who go early can be caught if they fade and her shoes are still on her feet.
Houlihan also ran 14:34 last year. So, hard to say she's in the same shape. Only Jerry knows.
Faith Kipyegon
2015 Worlds Silver medal
2016 Olympics GOLD
2017 Worlds GOLD
2019 (2-0)
First race since baby and she goes sub 4 at Pre defeating Laura Muir and Shelby Houlihan in 3:59.04
2nd race at Kenyan Trials 4:02 at altitude winning convincingly.
I think that makes Faith the Gold medal favorite easily. Heck in the last 4 years she's only lost 4 (1500m/mile) out of 17 races.
Faith Kipyegon is the clear Gold medal favorite til someone takes her title as she already beat Muir and Houlihan in her season opener after over a year off.
If Hassan races, she is the clear favorite for me. Kipyegon was surprisingly strong at Pre but I think Hassan is in incredible form (~3:52) and can beat anyone unless she botches it tactically.
After Hassan (or if she runs 5k) I'd put Kipyegon, Muir, Houlihan. Muir was very good in early season but got injured, Kipyegon and Houlihan have raced so little that it's hard to tell.
Next would be Klosterhalfen (again, it seems more likely she will run the 5k) who does have a chance in fast race. Despite lacking that superfast kick in the end she can now run sub 60 in a 3:59 race and from her 8:20 3k at Pre and 2:38 last 1k in Brussels I'd put her at ~3:56 ability, so she could also force a fast race early on.
Then Simpson who would be dangerous in a tactical race but she was not looking that great in most DL races this season and got seriously dropped in the last lap in Zurich. Then Chebet, Debues-Stafford, Tsegay and Arafi. The former are very good finishers in more tactical races, I'd put their chances similar to Simpson's. Tsegay is maybe the worst finisher of all sub 4 runners but could simply force a fast pace earlier because it's her only slight chance. Arafi did well in some DL races but overall inconsistent and not so great at championships in the past.