Shelby Houlihan the gold medal favorite?

As with all World's, they are not one-off DL events. You must get through the rounds. I think Houlihan for sure is a medal threat, but her lack of racing is of concern. The rounds will likely help her get sharper....but I think the dark horse will be Stafford. She just ran 14:44, has raced a lot, and kicks well (under 60). She may surprise people with a medal herself., as the rounds will suit her. ... if Hassan runs, it is a done deal for GOLD for her though.

Stafford is almost like the opposite of Houlihan in that we could watch her progress throughout the season. She raced a lot and kept improving. Nevertheless I think she is still a bit behind the likes of Houlihan in good shape. And she is not that experienced with running three rounds either although she is certainly strong enough and has a good finish so making the final should not be a problem. (Recall that in 2017 several athletes with very good pre WC times like Tsegay, Chebet and Klosterhalfen didn't make the final.)

Zurich was fastish but not *that* fast and Muir, Kipyegon and Houlihan in reasonable form would have dropped Debues-Stafford in that last lap. And Simpson actually got dropped and faded to 8th. She is very experienced and tactically savy but I don't think she is in the medals unless lots of things work out very favorably for her. E.g. no kamikaze Tsegay starting in sub 4 pace and forcing a fast race.

4:00 with a sub 60 final lap is not that special anymore. The first 6 women at London DL ran sub 4:01 with a sub 60 final lap and several of the best weren't even in that race.

If she doesn't medal because she is hurt maybe THEN look for a new coach even though his training has gotten her this far. Honestly coaches aren't always the reason for injuries anyways. I have never in my career blamed an injury on a coach.

You guys have to stop blaming coaches for whether or not someone gets a medal though. Coaches just get the athlete in shape and put the athlete in a position to win or place high. It is up to her to actually go out there and win it.

In my opinion this comes down to Houlihan( provided no injuries), Hassan and probably Muir. I always want the american to win but these happen to be my 3 favorite women runners at the moment so I will be happy if anyone of them wins. I have zero faith in Koko because she never wins races despite running fast. Probably needs more muscle.

westsouthrunner wrote:

In my opinion this comes down to Houlihan( provided no injuries), Hassan and probably Muir. I always want the american to win but these happen to be my 3 favorite women runners at the moment so I will be happy if anyone of them wins. I have zero faith in Koko because she never wins races despite running fast. Probably needs more muscle.

It depends how the race goes. If it's super tactical, look at the London race, but if it's even remotely an honest pace (not necessarily 3:55-3:57, but even 4:00-4:02), she definitely has a chance. If she gets a respectable first 800m, I could see her pushing it 600m out and holding on for a medal. She's ran an 8:20 3k, she has the strength and much better strength than in 2017.

Runningmanic2 wrote:

I agree she should certainty be ready to go and definitely a medal threat. However what is against her is experience. She’s never raced the 1500m at a global championship nor has ever run three rounds of 1500 meters...Houlihan does not have experience in that category so I’m not sure certain I’d hand her the gold medal...

Is Houlihan considered a tactically savvy racer? I remember some criticism of her tactics after she lost the 1500 to Rhianwedd Price in her senior year.

Great post, thank you

Klosterhalfen ran 5 DL races this season, won one of them and lost two only to Hassan. And none of them but Pre was "playing into her strengths", namely a fast race with good pacers. In London I think she was supposed to practice a fast finish and somewhat failed because she tried too early and didn't stay behind Muir at the beginning of the last lap.

She clearly still lacks some race experience although she has improved both tactically and in finishing speed. Watch the Zurich race (unfortunately no exact individual splits available). After the slowing down between ca. 800 and 900m Koko is apparently not quite sure what to do, probably has been told not to take the lead and push onward, she clearly looks like she could have. 3:59.02 with a sub 60 last lap is not too bad, considering the slowish 3rd lap. And for the last kilometer in Brussels she ran 2:38 which is 3:57 pace. I am pretty sure she could run ~3:56 in a well-paced race in Monaco. Still I hope she will be running the 5000m in Doha because there she has a very good medal chance having already beaten the main contenders except for Hassan.

Right now she is about the 10 seed based on times. She is in the race, so she has a chance.

Koko probably raced too much in the summer Diamond League races. There is a reason most of the other athletes avoided the summer races.

Probably not. Use the right strategies and get a medal. It's hard to see Simpson medaling again after the ones she has already won but it will be exciting to see. One's like her and Rowbury, Thomas-Wurth, Martinez and others never did something very important that would actually benefit their 1500m during their careers.

Ijdbin wrote:

One's like her and Rowbury, Thomas-Wurth, Martinez and others never did something very important that would actually benefit their 1500m during their careers.

It's not clear what you are talking about in this sentence. Maybe try again?

Nope. She'll be totally undercooked through a lack of international racing this year. Bad strategy especially considering she's still got a lot to learn on the global scene.

Yep, she won USAs but you'd want her to have won that much more dominantly to be confident in her gold medal chances.

This is one of the events I’m most looking forward to at Worlds. No clear favorite (if Sifan runs then 100% she is the favorite though). And so many different women have medal chances.

schiklgruber wrote:

Houlihan is not at the same level this year, as last.

Houlihan said in an interview she was fried at the end of last season -- two losses at the end of the season. With the World Championships so late this year and with her experience from last year she is probably holding back on racing.

Sesamoiditis wrote:

It's hard to say what level she is at now that she hasn't raced in almost two months. She also has only raced international competition once this whole year.

This. I am a huge Shelby fan, and to me there's little doubt she was the best 1500m runner last summer (her only real loss was the DL final when she had a month at altitude while the other contenders were race sharp from area championships).

The reason she won't win the gold in Doha is that she hasn't raced all summer. To me her main weakness are tactical errors, putting herself in a position to make up too much ground before launching the kick. I think this will rear its ugly head in the final.

Houlihan had more injury setbacks this year than last. I'd still give her a shot, but there are a lot of question marks around a lot of competitors, which will make it interesting.

FormerTree wrote:

to me there's little doubt she was the best 1500m runner last summer (her only real loss was the DL final when she had a month at altitude while the other contenders were race sharp from area championships).

I wonder if the problem was deeper than not being race sharp. I think it's likely that after Pre and Lausanne, other women realized just how dangerous Houlihan's kick was, and worked find ways to neutralize it. In Brussels, Muir took away Houlihan's kick by taking off early enough that she was too far ahead that for Houlihan to kick her down.

I assume that Houlihan and Schumacher have made adjustments to counter the adjustments Muir and others made last year.

I just hope everyone's healthy enough to run their best in Doha.

oldlegs wrote:

As with all World's, they are not one-off DL events. You must get through the rounds. I think Houlihan for sure is a medal threat, but her lack of racing is of concern. The rounds will likely help her get sharper....but I think the dark horse will be Stafford. She just ran 14:44, has raced a lot, and kicks well (under 60). She may surprise people with a medal herself., as the rounds will suit her. ... if Hassan runs, it is a done deal for GOLD for her though.

Hassan a done deal for Gold? Absolutely not. When it comes to fast races Hassan if sure a solid threat, however tactical 1500 meter races has always been her weakness. Look at the last global championships in 2016 and 2017. Hassan does not know how to run an efficient 1500 meter tactical race. People often forget that the 1500 meter distance at global championship is another level and not the same as running at 1500 on the DL circuit. Even with her improved fitness at 3k, 5k and the mile world record Hassan has still been unproven in the 1500 at the global championship level.

schiklgruber wrote:

Houlihan is still not at the same level this year, as last

How?