I would lean towards an average hobby jogger making a huge breakthrough ahead of an elite runner running a world class time that they have run multiple times before. Thoughts?
Definitely hobby joggers, but only a few of them are able to really go to their limits. MUCH easier to push to the limits and cause all kind of fatigue and problems when you are unfit.
Elite runners can run an all-out mile (PR, WR) and go right on a victory lap jog. They recover extremely fast on an all-out mile due to their phenomenal aerobic abilities/VO2MAX. A hobby jogger will be very close to collapsing.
The difference is that most elite runners run at their maximum ability, whereas most hobby joggers just jog. They don't want to have severe pain or fatigue. But if there is a hobby jogger that really goes for it, without talent and a low VO2MAX he will experience tremendous warning signals from the brain and pain. I've seen some young, untalented HS kids absolutely kill themselves in races (passing out, collapsing due to leg fatigue, vomiting, unable to breath, etc.) whereas the leaders look relaxed, composed and recover fast even tho both groups (untalented runners at the back and front leaders) are pushing their limits.