Coyote Montane wrote:
The recent 5K on course that has 3 hills over the last mile on a warm morning (70s in Atlanta) equates to 2:47 for a marathon. Age grading I'd need to run a 2:45:00 or faster, likely not happening especially in Atlanta. But on a Daniels chart it's a 2:47:30. On a fast course like Chicago or one of the big European races that might be possible.
I think most find even Daniels' VDOT equivalency tables to be pretty aggressive for the marathon compared to 5K. Very impressive if you can do it!
And, plugging in OR's goal of sub-17, the Age-Graded equivalencies for Masters are just crazy, as has been pointed out:
Open, 16:59 = 2:40:50
At 40, 16:59 = 2:36:32
At 50, 16:59 = 2:37:58
At 60, 16:59 = 2:39:50
On Daniels tables, 16:59 = 2:42:40.
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Looking back on my 5K versus marathon times at age 23, my marathon was 5 minutes 39 seconds too slow, based on Daniels. And based on current Age-Grading, my marathon was more than 8 minutes too slow!
At age 58, Daniels has my marathon at 5:51 too slow. Age-grading says a whopping 7:54 too slow.
Those time spreads, actually, are amazingly similar at age 23 and 58. The AG scores are similar, too (5K versus marathon):
Age 23 -- 80.7 vs 76.6
Age 58 -- 82.2 vs 78.7
OK, back to work. No work, no pay. Still struggling to break the LRC habit!