Way too early top 5 picks, bust and wild cards for the US Marathon Trials

Kung Pow Chicken wrote:

OP, how is Lagat not on your list?

Even worse, OP left out 2020 Olympic Gold Medalist-to-be, Gwen Jorgensen.

I'm rooting for Lagat to the make top three. I have no rational reason to justify this, purely because this guy was at the Olympics when I was in high school, 19 years ago, and I'd love to see him make just one more Olympic appearance before calling it a career. I'd love to see him carry the flag on opening night when the team enters the stadium. The guy has been a terrific ambassador for the sport.

The race will be tactical and slow.

If Lagat is near the lead pack at 20 miles he will make the team. He is one of the greatest competitors of all time and knows how to win.

oldmanbythesea wrote:

The race will be tactical and slow.

If Lagat is near the lead pack at 20 miles he will make the team. He is one of the greatest competitors of all time and knows how to win.

From your lips to god's ears. He's an incredible finisher, and I agree, if he's in the fight by that point, he's got a great shot. I just don't think there are any other marathoners out there who can match his kick. They'll have to build a lead he can't overcome. I figure it's Rupp's to lose, with Jared in the fight, and I sure hope Lagat can nab that third slot.

Sara sellers??? Seriously? Above the 9th place finisher at Boston with a 6 minute better pr? No way.

Can we rename this thread "Anti-Nike ultra douche makes the worst top-5 predictions of all-time"

I dont get the Stinson and droddy picks, just on times. I am writing about 22 out of 32 on the elite list at Chicago and am struggling to include both. They just seem to suffer from ‘the wall’ more than others. To cross halfway in 65 is madness but they seem consumed by this 2.11.30 that they had to achieve. There are five others with better times who should fill most of places 15-20 behind the five 2.11 Japanese marathoners entered. Jonas Hampton ran past Stinson while he was fading last year. Droddy on a flat Rotterdam course this year was under 66 at halfway, ran 16.20 from 30 to 35k (I imagine the leading women gained on him), then 18.42 from 35-40k.

I have Lagat outright winning. The third marathon is usually and elite athlete’s best and he has always had Rupp’s number. Old man strength ftw!

Men's Top 3

1) Rupp

2) Lagat

3) Ward

Women's Top 3

1) Hasay

2) Huddle

3) Sission

Rupp fan wrote:

I have Lagat outright winning. The third marathon is usually and elite athlete’s best and he has always had Rupp’s number. Old man strength ftw!

Jeff Eggleston's PR (2:10:52) was run on the same course as Lagat's PR (2:12:10). Does anyone know what's up with Jeff?

Hey watch your mouth wrote:

I think Jard will perform well and make the team. I think Danthan will surprise people and make the team.

Be careful, if you diss the Black Cactus in anyway, the mods will delete your post AND ban you.

Right.

Black people have such power in America.

Or “Tyler Andrews starts a thread about the trials and puts himself in the top 5”

Aussiestatman wrote:

I dont get the Stinson and droddy picks, just on times. I am writing about 22 out of 32 on the elite list at Chicago and am struggling to include both. They just seem to suffer from ‘the wall’ more than others. To cross halfway in 65 is madness but they seem consumed by this 2.11.30 that they had to achieve. There are five others with better times who should fill most of places 15-20 behind the five 2.11 Japanese marathoners entered. Jonas Hampton ran past Stinson while he was fading last year. Droddy on a flat Rotterdam course this year was under 66 at halfway, ran 16.20 from 30 to 35k (I imagine the leading women gained on him), then 18.42 from 35-40k.

I am not including either in my thread for Chicago, but including two on debut and would like to add Ryan Root, who i think can chop 3 minutes off his best, but that may still not be enough.

oldmanbythesea wrote:

The race will be tactical and slow.

If Lagat is near the lead pack at 20 miles he will make the team. He is one of the greatest competitors of all time and knows how to win.

Nope, too many have nothing to lose and will go for it if it lags too soon. I don't see it slow at all mate, but we'll see;)

I would love to see

Meb, Abdi, Lagat

OR

Hall, Ritz, Webb

OR

Some combination of the above.

Aussiestatman wrote:

I dont get the Stinson and droddy picks, just on times. I am writing about 22 out of 32 on the elite list at Chicago and am struggling to include both. They just seem to suffer from ‘the wall’ more than others. To cross halfway in 65 is madness but they seem consumed by this 2.11.30 that they had to achieve. There are five others with better times who should fill most of places 15-20 behind the five 2.11 Japanese marathoners entered. Jonas Hampton ran past Stinson while he was fading last year. Droddy on a flat Rotterdam course this year was under 66 at halfway, ran 16.20 from 30 to 35k (I imagine the leading women gained on him), then 18.42 from 35-40k.

Three marathoners faded worse than Stinson in Chicago last year: Ahmed Osman, Bernard Kipyego, and Tyler McCandless. I have McCandless pegged at 18th for New York this year, a couple places behind Stephen Sambu.

crisscrosscountry wrote:

Even worse, OP left out 2020 Olympic Gold Medalist-to-be, Gwen Jorgensen.

Haha this got me pretty good, I had completely forgotten about her bold goal to be olympic gold medalist. What an outlandish dream!

Huddle is not the lock that many make her out to be. Taylor has run two minutes faster. Hall and Tuliamuk have run about the same time as her. Flanagan, Linden and Craig are all more accomplished marathoners if they decide to run and are healthy.

1. Rupp

2. Ward

3. Bumbalough

——————————

4. Lagat

5. Fauble

DS/DNF: Derrick, Ritz