you're right male and female time equivalences can't be constructed biologically, but they can be constructed based on history, and that's exactly what the USATF age-grading calculator does. june's age grades as a male approach 90 percent while her age grades as a woman are closer to 60 percent, proving that she has received a significant disadvantage (remember that for an "equal" comparison they should also be at 90% for women, and if nothing changed at all then they should be at near 100% for women).
your first example here is actually a perfect one: yes, a 60kg boxer is really an 80kg boxer minus his size! and guess what: if the 80kg boxer loses 20kg of weight, then he too can compete equitably in the 60kg class! it's analogous to the fact that high-T athletes can lower their T to compete in the low-T category -- i couldn't think of a better example argument for trans inclusion in this way. the concept extends to your other examples as well, but alas we haven't invented time travel yet though we have invented consistent high mileage training which might help the hobby jogger you mention.
yes, the current NCAA rule mandates one year of hormone therapy. the available evidence and interviews with june show that she likely has T levels within the female range and she has been taking estrogen pills as well. now you're right that it should absolutely be more specific, and i've always argued that the NCAA rules should be amended to include specific T and E limits (around 2-3 nmol/L for T) as well as verification. i don't know of any serious people in this debate who would disagree with that, and i expect the rules to actually be changed some time in the next year now that they're being put into practice.
by the way, Ryan Hall's "low testosterone" was still likely higher than that of female athletes, but his enormous performance drop still goes to show how much of a factor testosterone is in elite performance. if i remember correctly one of his last marathons was a 2:18 in Boston, 3 minutes slower than the women's WR and 14 minutes (!) off his PB. presumably after that he was in even worse shape as he continued to drop out of races a bunch before his retirement (did he even finish any?). i wouldn't call that "competing at the highest level" at all.
no, Armstronglivs is wrong. nobody here -- not me, not June, not her coaching staff, not the NCAA -- is arguing for a purely identification-based categorization. in fact, my argument is the most biological of all, it's based on the significan changes that a body goes through following hormone replacement therapy that June has already undergone. so your boxing analogy simply doesn't make sense, a better analogy would be if an 80kg boxer lost weight to compete in the 60kg class, a phenomenon which is rightly legal and fair.
BergLaufer, not at all, in fact weight classes are a strong argument for trans inclusion in distance running because they acknowledge that categories are based upon causal performance variables (in our case, testosterone, in their case, weight) rather than identification or sex organs. the NCAA transgender rules (once amended to include specific T+E limits & verification) will strengthen women's sport, not eliminate it by any means.
they can't identify that way because they wouldn't be changing their causal performance variables -- a heavyweight identifying as a lightweight wouldn't be changing his weight (the causal variable in boxing), i don't know where you're going with the cow example as being a cow would not be useful in any sport to my knowledge. the current rules aren't based upon identification (wholly) and the argument for trans inclusion isn't predicated upon identification, it's instead predicated upon having reduced testosterone levels for one year as well as the body changes that follow that from a domino effect.
no, we shouldn't get rid of weight classes because they're based on a causal performance variable, like how the gender designations in cross country are based on the causal performance variable of testosterone.
again, totally irrelevant as the trans inclusion argument isn't predicated upon identification. i'll humor you by saying that if being a cow were physically possible, what gender that person would compete as would depend upon the cow's testosterone levels. have fun saving women's sport by reading about people who identify as cows though.
no, i don't want to and neither does the mainstream trans inclusion movement, including Joanna Harper, an expert who has spoken at length about these issues. i don't see how i could be more clear than that. the case for June's inclusion doesn't depend upon identification.
i know this wasn't directed at me, but i still want to emphasize the answer is "no" and also emphasize not to group all inclusionist arguments under one umbrella as there are many varied opinions -- instead, what you should do for every debate is take what you consider to be the strongest arguments on both sides and compare their merits and relevant rebuttals.
if we split cross country divisions by race, then this would be a relevant question to ask. fortunately for us both, racial segregation ended in the united states a few decades ago, and for good reason: race isn't a primary causal performance variable, or at least it isn't enough of a game-changer that black men can't compete against white men for example (yes there are biological differences like more slow twitch muscle fibers in East African athletes, but they don't add up to enough a difference to split categories at the highest levels of sport).
so, quite frankly, the question needs to be more specific. i don't think the person you linked is looking to get into professional sport, and i can't remember the last time that knowing someone's race was actually important to my day-to-day business. if i was describing her on a police report, i would probably say light-skinned based on the one wiki photo. however i would also describe Michael Jackson as "white" post-skin-lightening, and in both cases it's an assumption i make based on appearance. in the same way, almost all trans women have long hair and wear dresses or feminine clothing, including June, so it's easy for me to categorize them as female.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_and_appearance_of_Michael_Jackson