With the California XC State Championship coming up in less than one month, here is another prediction for how the state meet will look.
1. Great Oak (D1 - SS)
Back at #1, Great Oak continues to dominate all of California and truly the nation, with spectacular performances at Woodbridge (2nd), Great American (1st), Clovis (1st) and Mt. SAC (1st). I rank Great Oak (GO) ahead of Newbury Park (NBP) both because of their tremendous Clovis finish and their skill in the hills, which NBP lacks. NXN should be the real battle, as NBP may not need to run at full strength in their division. +1
2. Newbury Park (D2 - SS)
The #2 team in the nation, NBP has the highest ceiling of any team this year, maybe even in all time. I don't believe NBP (at least Nico Young/Jace Aschbrenner) will run all out at Woodward for state this year, but still remain the #2 team. -1
3. Bellarmine (D1 - CCS)
Bellarmine comes off the greatest race in Northern California history, breaking the Jesuit 1985 team time course record at the historic Crystal Springs course by 5s at their league meet. This would have beaten St. Francis Mountain Views 2017 time, a team which qualified to NXN. At the De La Salle Invitational, Bellarmine beat Dublin in places 77-81, so it should be a close race. Claremont, ranked fifth, also beat Bellarmine at the Crystal Springs Invitational, however the new Bellarmine results puts them back on top. +2
4. Dublin (D1 - NCS)
Dublin raced exceedingly well at the Clovis Invitational, taking third place even though Chris Middleton-Pearson did not run his best race. Dublin has not raced much since, but did lose at the De La Salle Invitational (they did beat the Bellarmine team time however). The race for state podium & NXN bids will be very, very close this year. -1
5. Claremont (D2 - SS)
Like earlier stated, Claremont beat the Bellarmine team at the Crystal Springs Invitational even without their 3rd (or 4th) man, 45-49, although they lost in team time. Claremont has not raced much since then, other than winning the Palomares league meet easily. For Bellarmine and Dublin's new performances and Claremont's lack of racing, they rank fifth, although have a good shot at going much faster. -1
6. Clovis North (D1 - CS)
Clovis North lost at both the Lowell and Clovis Invitational to Bellarmine and GO, NBP, Dublin, respectively. However, Clovis packs a 1-2 punch that is strong as any team and has developed the depth to race competitively at a high level. They too have a shot for the podium at state, and if their fifth man can get a bit better, a good shot at an NXN bid. 0
7. Dana Hills (D2 - SS)
Performing tremendously at their league meet, the Dolphins smashed El Toro and Aliso Niguel, sweeping even with strong individuals. The Dolphins have a high ceiling, and even though they did not race their best at Clovis (missing their #1 Jai Dawson), will be ready to roll at Woodward Park. +4
8. Jesuit (D1 - SJS)
Jesuit has run strong at Clovis, De La Salle and Capital Cross, however they have not won many invitationals, losing to Long Beach Poly at Capital Cross while missing some runners. Jesuit has a top individual with Matt Strangio and a good pack behind him, but are not deep enough where they have been running. Again, we will see at the state meet. -1
9. West Torrance (D2 - SS)
West Torrance took a solid 3rd place finish at Mt. SAC, finishing just ahead of #10 Torrey Pines and Thousand Oaks. They raced very strongly at Woodbridge, but have not raced much since then. Without tons of information about them, they get the ninth spot. 0
10. Torrey Pines (D1 - SDS)
Taking 4th at the Mt. SAC Invitational, Torrey Pines fits strongly into that tenth spot, easily the #1 SDS team over La Costa Canyon among others. They did not race their best at Clovis but ought to run stronger at Woodward Park for state.
Honorable Mentions
Agoura (D3 SS)
Maria Carrillo (D3 NCS)
La Serna (D1 - SS)
Thousand Oaks (D2 - SS)
De La Salle (D2 - NCS)
That's my list and might need some updating.