Coach of Nobody wrote:
Black cacti wrote:
How did you figure out 3 mile and Woodward Park estimates? Curious why the improvement from last year’s PR’s are so much more for Newbury Park than for Great Oak? Do the Great Oak kids not improve much year over year?
I've been doing this for a while and I'm good with numbers and patterns.
Great Oak breakdown
Mateo Joseph: didn't run track, thus can't expect much improvement plus he ran super fast last year. Kid is a stud.
Cole Yager: 20 second improvement for 3 mile time is significant
Chris Verdugo: Didn't show much improvement in track, thus only a slight improvement expected in XC
Gabriel Abbes: Was hurt at end of XC, ran 30 seconds slower for 3200 as junior vs. sophomore, getting back to where he was last XC season is excellent
John Worthy: 18 second improvement for 3 mile is significant and in line with his track times
Kyle Reden: 7 second improvement in the 1600 from freshmen to sophomore, so this is in line with that
Aric Reza: Did not improve significant in track from soph to jr year so not expecting a big jump
Abrenica: 9 second improvement in 3200 and 6 second in 1600 from soph to jr year so this is expected jump
Parker Smith: I'm not sure he has the speed to run significantly faster than 14:55
Micah Baird: Has a ton of speed, but doesn't focus on 3200 at all during track and didn't improve much in the 800/1600 from soph to jr year. Lots of upside, could have a breakthrough, but not expected until college.
Austin Montez: Didn't get much faster in the 3200 from fr to soph year
Newbury Park
Nico Young: Made a big jump from XC to that 8:40
Jace Aschbrenner: Going from 14:42 down to 9:05 is a big jump as well
Colin Sahlman: went 1:57/4:15 as a freshman and that's way better than his 15:06
Goldstein: expecting 10 seconds improvement over 3 miles based on track times
Appleford: 4:32/9:46 as a freshman was much better than 15:53, I expect a big jump
Zaki Blunt: 2:00/4:32 as a freshman again much better than 16:09, expect a big jump as a soph
Oliver Hughes: 2:13/4:46 aren't quite as good as 15:17, but he didn't run XC last season so i expect a big jump going into soph year. 2:13/4:46 is excellent for a freshman
Kohlhepp: his 9:57 indicates he's a lot more fit than 16:09
McDonnell: his 9:59 is much better than his 15:57
Mackay: Improved 7 seconds in the 1600 so I expect about a 20 second improvement over 3 miles
Ultimately, Newbury Park is a younger team, with 4 sophomores in that top-10 and that's typically when we see the biggest bump in fitness for boys. None of Great Oaks top-10 I have listed are going to be sophomores, so we shouldn't expect as big of a jump. Newbury Park also howed a bigger jump in fitness in general on the track vs XC, so yeah I expect they'll make a bigger jump, but keep in mind Great Oak was ahead of them overall and still is and it's harder to improve the faster and older you get. Great Oak is going to kill it as always, but Newbury Park is going to shine as well.
Newbury Park's track club team is absolutely enormous by the way. They have so much talent feeding into their high school team.