California HS XC Team Ranking Predictions 2019 season (include divisions)

How about you start?

D1 boys Great Oak

D1 girls Great Oak

who’s next?

I honestly don't even know, that's why I'm asking. I'll try, but my list is going to be crap. This is only for division 1.

Division 1: Boys

1. Great Oak

2.Dublin

3..Clovis North

4. Crescenta Valley

5.Buchanan

6. Jesuit

7. West Ranch

8. Tesoro

9. Roosevelt

10. Ayala

11. Yucaipa

Don’t forget Bellermine of the CCS Northern California:

Top of my head the four of the runners 3200 time from last year, all sophomores!

Peate 9:09

Topper 9:09

Topper 9:35 they are twins

Welsh 9:41

They have two more years together

How about you guys give me the teams and I'll tell you their future. I don't have time to do a perfect comprehensive breakdown of the entire state so if there is some sleeper team you're aware of let me know. And yes I have a crystal ball so don't be shocked when I reveal what's going to happen.

What will happen to:

1. Mira Costa

2. Trabuco Hills

3. California HS (whittier)

4. Valencia (Placentia)

5. Burbank

* Trabuco, Mira Costa, California, Burbank, and Valencia (Plancentia) are sleeper teams in d1.

oldoldrunner wrote:

Don’t forget Bellermine of the CCS Northern California:

Top of my head the four of the runners 3200 time from last year, all sophomores!

Peate 9:09

Topper 9:09

Topper 9:35 they are twins

Welsh 9:41

They have two more years together

Welsh ran a 9:29 at Stanford Invite and G Topper ran a 9:30 there.

At the CSS Top 8 meet, junior Theochung ran a 9:50 and junior Aliaga ran a 9:46.

Those top BCP guys and Peattie/N Topper do have 2 more years together and put BCP in a position where they can win NXN in 2020.

I have heard that Saugus (D2) will have a good girls team, and Newbury Park (D2) will have a good boys team.

I didn't have much time last night, but here's the schools I looked at so far. I should have more time tonight. This is not to suggest these are the top 5 teams in the state. Cathedral and Redlands East aren't top 5 teams for sure. Just getting the ball rolling.

If anyone has insider info I'll take it into consideration.

School - Name - Grade - 2019 3 Mile PR Estimate - 2019 Woodward Park Estimate

Great Oak Mateo Joseph 11 14:15 15:07

Great Oak Cole Sawires-Yager 12 14:28 15:21

Great Oak Chris Verdugo 12 14:30 15:25

Great Oak Gabriel Abbes 12 14:30 15:25

Great Oak John Worthy 11 14:33 15:29

Great Oak Kyle Reden 11 14:46 15:46

Great Oak Aric Reza 12 14:50 15:50

Great Oak Joshua Abrenica 12 14:53 15:53

Great Oak Parker Smith 12 14:55 15:55

Great Oak Micah Baird 12 14:57 15:58

Great Oak Austin Montez 11 14:58 15:59

I don't see Great Oak boys being beaten by anyone in CA. Anybody know why Mateo Joseph didn't run track?

Newbury Park Nico Young 12 13:37 14:26

Newbury Park Jace Aschbrenner 12 14:07 14:57

Newbury Park Colin Sahlman 10 14:29 15:23

Newbury Park Nicholas Goldstein 11 14:44 15:42

Newbury Park Daniel Appleford 10 14:55 15:55

Newbury Park Zaki Blunt 10 15:06 16:08

Newbury Park Oliver Hughes 10 15:17 16:22

Newbury Park Benjamin Kohlhepp 11 15:18 16:23

Newbury Park Thomas McDonnell 11 15:29 16:36

Newbury Park Daniel Mackay 12 15:40 16:50

Nico Young could go nuts and take down German Fernandez' Woodward Park course record, although it feels blasphemous to even suggest it. He reminds me of Ritz physically so I could see him doing something very special this season. Sahlman is going to be a monster eventually, although I'm not expecting it until next season. Look for him to be the best one of the best sophomores in the country.

Claremont Jack Lansford 11 14:30 15:25

Claremont Adam Trafecanty 12 14:39 15:37

Claremont Yoon Cho 12 14:52 15:51

Claremont Jaden Clark 12 14:54 15:54

Claremont Diego Denson 12 14:56 15:57

Claremont Blake Bertrand 12 15:13 16:17

Claremont Askari Ahad 11 15:15 16:20

Claremont James Settles 12 15:17 16:22

Claremont will likely end up on the D2 podium, but I don't see them threatening Newbury Park seriously. I think they have a tendency to focus on the longer stuff and thus do better in XC than track.

Cathedral Tyriq Granillo 12 14:47 15:46

Cathedral Gabriel Galaz 12 15:10 16:13

Cathedral Bryce Granillo 11 15:15 16:19

Cathedral Julian Umana 10 15:19 16:25

Cathedral Juan Sanchez 11 15:20 16:26

Cathedral Andrew Cantu 12 15:30 16:37

Cathedral John Boring 10 15:50 17:00

Cathedral had a pretty horrible track campaign. The younger Granillo didn't run track (maybe he does other sports?) at all so he's a question mark as I have no insider info on any of these teams. The older Granillo didn't have a great track season, but maybe he'll be motivated and prove my estimates wrong. Tyriq is a big talent, but seems burned out as many age-groupers tend to be after so many years of running.

Redlands East Matthew Casillas 12 14:31 15:27

Redlands East Simon Opsahl 11 14:46 15:45

Redlands East Alexander Miller 10 14:54 15:54

Redlands East Matthew Hornung 11 15:10 16:13

Redlands East Cole Cooper 12 15:15 16:19

Redlands East Liam Mapes 11 15:30 16:37

Redlands East Anthony Ramos 11 16:00 17:12

These guys had a rough track season, but should still be solid. Based on genetics alone, Opsahl could breakout anytime, but it just hasn't happened yet.

Even though Great Oak will probably still win state, I don't think they'll place in the top 3 at NXN.

Dr. Beaker wrote:

Even though Great Oak will probably still win state, I don't think they'll place in the top 3 at NXN.

If they can run those times at Woodward Park and it's dry at NXN they have a very good chance at being on the podium.

How did you figure out 3 mile and Woodward Park estimates? Curious why the improvement from last year’s PR’s are so much more for Newbury Park than for Great Oak? Do the Great Oak kids not improve much year over year?

Black cacti wrote:

How did you figure out 3 mile and Woodward Park estimates? Curious why the improvement from last year’s PR’s are so much more for Newbury Park than for Great Oak? Do the Great Oak kids not improve much year over year?

I've been doing this for a while and I'm good with numbers and patterns.

Great Oak breakdown

Mateo Joseph: didn't run track, thus can't expect much improvement plus he ran super fast last year. Kid is a stud.

Cole Yager: 20 second improvement for 3 mile time is significant

Chris Verdugo: Didn't show much improvement in track, thus only a slight improvement expected in XC

Gabriel Abbes: Was hurt at end of XC, ran 30 seconds slower for 3200 as junior vs. sophomore, getting back to where he was last XC season is excellent

John Worthy: 18 second improvement for 3 mile is significant and in line with his track times

Kyle Reden: 7 second improvement in the 1600 from freshmen to sophomore, so this is in line with that

Aric Reza: Did not improve significant in track from soph to jr year so not expecting a big jump

Abrenica: 9 second improvement in 3200 and 6 second in 1600 from soph to jr year so this is expected jump

Parker Smith: I'm not sure he has the speed to run significantly faster than 14:55

Micah Baird: Has a ton of speed, but doesn't focus on 3200 at all during track and didn't improve much in the 800/1600 from soph to jr year. Lots of upside, could have a breakthrough, but not expected until college.

Austin Montez: Didn't get much faster in the 3200 from fr to soph year

Newbury Park

Nico Young: Made a big jump from XC to that 8:40

Jace Aschbrenner: Going from 14:42 down to 9:05 is a big jump as well

Colin Sahlman: went 1:57/4:15 as a freshman and that's way better than his 15:06

Goldstein: expecting 10 seconds improvement over 3 miles based on track times

Appleford: 4:32/9:46 as a freshman was much better than 15:53, I expect a big jump

Zaki Blunt: 2:00/4:32 as a freshman again much better than 16:09, expect a big jump as a soph

Oliver Hughes: 2:13/4:46 aren't quite as good as 15:17, but he didn't run XC last season so i expect a big jump going into soph year. 2:13/4:46 is excellent for a freshman

Kohlhepp: his 9:57 indicates he's a lot more fit than 16:09

McDonnell: his 9:59 is much better than his 15:57

Mackay: Improved 7 seconds in the 1600 so I expect about a 20 second improvement over 3 miles

Ultimately, Newbury Park is a younger team, with 4 sophomores in that top-10 and that's typically when we see the biggest bump in fitness for boys. None of Great Oaks top-10 I have listed are going to be sophomores, so we shouldn't expect as big of a jump. Newbury Park also howed a bigger jump in fitness in general on the track vs XC, so yeah I expect they'll make a bigger jump, but keep in mind Great Oak was ahead of them overall and still is and it's harder to improve the faster and older you get. Great Oak is going to kill it as always, but Newbury Park is going to shine as well.

Newbury Park's track club team is absolutely enormous by the way. They have so much talent feeding into their high school team.

I really hope Newbury Park dethrones Great Oak someday.

Dr. Beaker wrote:

I really hope Newbury Park dethrones Great Oak someday.

Why?

Just something for a change. The same team winning over and over again gets old and I think almost everyone likes Newbury Park way better than Great Oak. Newbury Park are the under dogs and everyone in the state can't wait for the day Great Oak loses. It will be the best day ever in ca high school cross country history. I still respect Great Oak though. Very hardworking.

Dr. Beaker wrote:

Just something for a change. The same team winning over and over again gets old and I think almost everyone likes Newbury Park way better than Great Oak. Newbury Park are the under dogs and everyone in the state can't wait for the day Great Oak loses. It will be the best day ever in ca high school cross country history. I still respect Great Oak though. Very hardworking.

That's your opinion, but mine is this: the same team winning over and over again shows you that a system can work and it's not just the luck of the draw in terms of getting the absolute best athletes.

For the record I hate that letsrun's forum is still in the dark ages and formats gets completely whacked out. So annoying.

If anyone has insider info I'll take it into consideration.

School - Name - Grade - 2019 3 Mile PR Estimate - 2019 Woodward Park Estimate

Great Oak Mateo Joseph 11 14:15 15:07

Great Oak Cole Sawires-Yager 12 14:28 15:21

Great Oak Chris Verdugo 12 14:30 15:25

Great Oak Gabriel Abbes 12 14:30 15:25

Great Oak John Worthy 11 14:33 15:29

Great Oak Kyle Reden 11 14:46 15:46

Great Oak Aric Reza 12 14:50 15:50

Great Oak Joshua Abrenica 12 14:53 15:53

Great Oak Parker Smith 12 14:55 15:55

Great Oak Micah Baird 12 14:57 15:58

Great Oak Austin Montez 11 14:58 15:59

I don't see Great Oak boys being beaten by anyone in CA. Anybody know why Mateo Joseph didn't run track?

Newbury Park Nico Young 12 13:37 14:26

Newbury Park Jace Aschbrenner 12 14:07 14:57

Newbury Park Colin Sahlman 10 14:29 15:23

Newbury Park Nicholas Goldstein 11 14:44 15:42

Newbury Park Daniel Appleford 10 14:55 15:55

Newbury Park Zaki Blunt 10 15:06 16:08

Newbury Park Oliver Hughes 10 15:17 16:22

Newbury Park Benjamin Kohlhepp 11 15:18 16:23

Newbury Park Thomas McDonnell 11 15:29 16:36

Newbury Park Daniel Mackay 12 15:40 16:50

Nico Young could go nuts and take down German Fernandez' Woodward Park course record, although it feels blasphemous to even suggest it. He reminds me of Ritz physically so I could see him doing something very special this season. Sahlman is going to be a monster eventually, although I'm not expecting it until next season. Look for him to be the best one of the best sophomores in the country. If this isn't the best 1-2-3 in the nation it's probably going to be the best in the state at least.

Bellarmine Colin Peattie 11 14:13 15:04

Bellarmine Nolan Topper 11 14:13 15:09

Bellarmine Clem Welsh 11 14:44 15:42

Bellarmine Galen Topper 11 14:46 15:43

Bellarmine Tristan Lalonde 10 14:50 15:47

Bellarmine Casper Aliaga 11 15:11 16:10

Bellarmine Aiden Theocheung 11 15:17 16:17

Bellarmine Christian Yarwood 11 15:29 16:30

Bellarmine Ben Callon 11 15:37 16:41

This team historically does better on the track than they do in XC, although that's typical of Norcal teams because hey let's be honest it's Norcal and they still think it makes sense to do a bunch of 2 miles races for XC. Someone suggested they could be winning NXN in 2020. Nope.

Claremont Jack Lansford 11 14:30 15:25

Claremont Adam Trafecanty 12 14:39 15:37

Claremont Yoon Cho 12 14:52 15:51

Claremont Jaden Clark 12 14:54 15:54

Claremont Diego Denson 12 14:56 15:57

Claremont Blake Bertrand 12 15:13 16:17

Claremont Askari Ahad 11 15:15 16:20

Claremont James Settles 12 15:17 16:22

Claremont will likely end up on the D2 podium, but I don't see them threatening Newbury Park seriously. I think they have a tendency to focus on the longer stuff and thus do better in XC than track.

Redlands East Matthew Casillas 12 14:31 15:27

Redlands East Simon Opsahl 11 14:46 15:45

Redlands East Alexander Miller 10 14:54 15:54

Redlands East Matthew Hornung 11 15:10 16:13

Redlands East Cole Cooper 12 15:15 16:19

Redlands East Liam Mapes 11 15:30 16:37

Redlands East Anthony Ramos 11 16:00 17:12

These guys had a rough track season, but should still be solid. Based on genetics alone, Opsahl could breakout anytime, but it just hasn't happened yet.

Cathedral Tyriq Granillo 12 14:47 15:46

Cathedral Gabriel Galaz 12 15:10 16:13

Cathedral Bryce Granillo 11 15:15 16:19

Cathedral Julian Umana 10 15:19 16:25

Cathedral Juan Sanchez 11 15:20 16:26

Cathedral Andrew Cantu 12 15:30 16:37

Cathedral John Boring 10 15:50 17:00

Cathedral had a pretty horrible track campaign. The younger Granillo didn't run track (maybe he does other sports?) at all so he's a question mark as I have no insider info on any of these teams. The older Granillo didn't have a great track season, but maybe he'll be motivated and prove my estimates wrong. Tyriq is a big talent, but seems burned out as many age-groupers tend to be after so many years of running.

Dr. Beaker wrote:

What will happen to:

1. Mira Costa

2. Trabuco Hills

3. California HS (whittier)

4. Valencia (Placentia)

5. Burbank

* Trabuco, Mira Costa, California, Burbank, and Valencia (Plancentia) are sleeper teams in d1.

These teams are solid in their leagues, but aren't going to do anything of real consequence, sorry.