2020 Boston Marathon Cut Off Predictions

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.

After looking at the price of hotels I decided I don't want to spend $1000-2000 on a race weekend for something that's NBD. Congrats running world - someone else can have my spot.

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.

After looking at the price of hotels I decided I don't want to spend $1000-2000 on a race weekend for something that's NBD. Congrats running world - someone else can have my spot.

They always bump the prices around the registration time... They know people want to book their hotels right after registration... They'll come down a bit. I registered the last year through Marathon Tours, hotel only... about $280 a night... Still expensive but better than other online offers. Plus, not bad at all for the Patriots Day holiday weekend;)

In a break for current potential squeakers, the weather wasn't kind last weekend.

In three high % qualifying races, Erie, VIA, and BQ2GR, approximately 370 fewer runners put up BQs compared to last year.

BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:

In a break for current potential squeakers, the weather wasn't kind last weekend.

In three high % qualifying races, Erie, VIA, and BQ2GR, approximately 370 fewer runners put up BQs compared to last year.

Noticed this. We now have about 4,000 less BQ's this year than last year (America data only). And races like Erie are built around BQs, so you figure their yield on BQs to registration is fairly high compared to another similar race.

FindMyMarathon has great data, but also leaves out international races which has a big impact on those looking for another WMM Star, along with the general marathon tourism business.

i ran 'Last Chance BQ.2' in GR only 4 of 16 in my AG got a bq time...

25timer wrote:

i ran 'Last Chance BQ.2' in GR only 4 of 16 in my AG got a bq time...

some of the AGs did a lot better.. all of the male 55-59 bq'd but one guy by only 3 2 seconds

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

The next big hobby jogger star wrote:

Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.

After looking at the price of hotels I decided I don't want to spend $1000-2000 on a race weekend for something that's NBD. Congrats running world - someone else can have my spot.

if you're smart at all, you can spend a whole lot less than that

BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:

In a break for current potential squeakers, the weather wasn't kind last weekend.

In three high % qualifying races, Erie, VIA, and LCBQ2GR, approximately 370 fewer runners put up BQs compared to last year.

I don't know what the weather was for LCBQ2GR was this year but I know at least one of the two prior years with 65% BQ rates had great weather for running. The year I ran it, 2016, the temperature was 68. That year many runners did not show up due to the forecast. The next day the temperatures were 20 degrees cooler. Michigan weather this time of year can vary from say 50 degrees to 70 degrees at the start of a morning race. In 2016 about 30% obtained a BQ.

The below claims 58.5% at LCBQ2R this year received BQs. I don't think this % takes into account DNF's. If correct, 58% may be the 3rd highest percentage for the race behind 65% for 2017 and 2018.

WaitingGame wrote:

BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:

In a break for current potential squeakers, the weather wasn't kind last weekend.

In three high % qualifying races, Erie, VIA, and BQ2GR, approximately 370 fewer runners put up BQs compared to last year.

Noticed this. We now have about 4,000 less BQ's this year than last year (America data only). And races like Erie are built around BQs, so you figure their yield on BQs to registration is fairly high compared to another similar race.

FindMyMarathon has great data, but also leaves out international races which has a big impact on those looking for another WMM Star, along with the general marathon tourism business.

I think it was posted here or maybe on reddit that only like 250-300 people who BQ at London and Berlin ended up running Boston last year. It’s not a huge number.

LCBQ2GR didn't have a BQ issue this year. The drop was driven solely from Erie and VIA. I think the poster just grouped all 3 together due to they were all the same weekend with a general trend of being used to BQ. So yes, you're right. Good year for Grand Rapids.

Runner Dave wrote:

WaitingGame wrote:

Noticed this. We now have about 4,000 less BQ's this year than last year (America data only). And races like Erie are built around BQs, so you figure their yield on BQs to registration is fairly high compared to another similar race.

FindMyMarathon has great data, but also leaves out international races which has a big impact on those looking for another WMM Star, along with the general marathon tourism business.

I think it was posted here or maybe on reddit that only like 250-300 people who BQ at London and Berlin ended up running Boston last year. It’s not a huge number.

This blows my mind. Ive heard they both yield small amounts to Boston but i still find that hard to believe. Doesn't translate one for one, but BAA shows 675 registered from UK and 271 from Germany last year. Obviously doesn't indicate where they achieved their BQ, just a general idea. But to your point about it not being a huge number, it's obviously US and Canada driven with about 24,000 of the 30,000. Would be great to solve for the cheating Chinese....

>if you're smart at all, you can spend a whole lot less than that

I'd love it if you could make a few suggestions. I'm going for the first time since 2010 and am having serious hotel-price sticker shock. Thanks.

I will be registering for Boston on Monday at 10am . The qualifying time for my age group was 3:20 (45-49 male). I ran a 3:16:22 as my qualifying time. So I am -3:38 . I was wondering what you thought my chances are of getting a bib for this years race? This was my first time trying to qualify for Boston. So I am learning a lot through reading everyones registration experiences. Thanks

ageg wrote:

>if you're smart at all, you can spend a whole lot less than that

I'd love it if you could make a few suggestions. I'm going for the first time since 2010 and am having serious hotel-price sticker shock. Thanks.

Hint: You don't HAVE to stay in Boston.

I will be registering for Boston on Monday. My qualifying time needed was 3:20 (45-49 Male). I ended up running a 3:16:22 so my -3:38. This was my first time trying to qualify for Boston so I am new to the whole process and learning a lot from the members conversations here. I was wondering what you thought my chances are to get in this year being -3:38. Thanks

6miles2go wrote:

I will be registering for Boston on Monday. My qualifying time needed was 3:20 (45-49 Male). I ended up running a 3:16:22 so my -3:38. This was my first time trying to qualify for Boston so I am new to the whole process and learning a lot from the members conversations here. I was wondering what you thought my chances are to get in this year being -3:38. Thanks

I'm not going to say you're 100% in like people that went 5+ minutes below their standard. Crazy things can happen and we have no data about what times people are running, just the % that are qualifying compared to LY. But you're about as close to in as you can be. Everyone is very quick this year to say the cutoff is going to be something crazy like 3-5 minutes. But these are emotional guesses and not backed by any data. People have just been in shock over the drops over the last 2 years. But it's not unique to the last 2 years. The cutoff dropped 139% in 2016, the largest in recent history. Do you know what happened the next year? It took a step back and slowed up by 13% (2:28 to 2:09).

Will that trend continue? Maybe. Probably. But it's not a given. And even if you take the crazy 50% average drop year over year for the past 2 years and apply it to 2020, you're still only looking at a BQ-2:18 to new standards.

WaitingGame wrote:

LCBQ2GR didn't have a BQ issue this year. The drop was driven solely from Erie and VIA. I think the poster just grouped all 3 together due to they were all the same weekend with a general trend of being used to BQ. So yes, you're right. Good year for Grand Rapids.

Exactly. I took the three as a whole for the weekend.

BQ2GR was the only net positive but their +21 didn't put a dent into Erie's -325.

Will do another three together this coming weekend with Tunnel Light, Big Cottonwood, and BQ2Geneva.

Still think the field is going to have to grow quite a bit to avoid a cutoff and if it remains at 30,000 (no matter what happens this weekend) it's looking to be the the 3's

For future reference, I ran a really small last chance marathon in the Northwoods of Wisconsin, town of Minocqua. It's a little bit remote, but it's a: (1) Relatively flat course (one big hill on 16); (2) Far enough north that you can count on some cooler temperatures; (3) A beautiful little town to make a weekend out of it.

I wouldn't touch Grand Rapids, even though it's much, much closer to me. Too far south.

BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:

WaitingGame wrote:

LCBQ2GR didn't have a BQ issue this year. The drop was driven solely from Erie and VIA. I think the poster just grouped all 3 together due to they were all the same weekend with a general trend of being used to BQ. So yes, you're right. Good year for Grand Rapids.

Exactly. I took the three as a whole for the weekend.

BQ2GR was the only net positive but their +21 didn't put a dent into Erie's -325.

Will do another three together this coming weekend with Tunnel Light, Big Cottonwood, and BQ2Geneva.

Still think the field is going to have to grow quite a bit to avoid a cutoff and if it remains at 30,000 (no matter what happens this weekend) it's looking to be the the 3's

BAA's unwillingness to announce the field size is clearly indicative that they are willing to increase it if the situation is right. They're walking a fine line with having an appeal of Boston and turning off runners due to the cutoff issues. Personally, this is it for me. I ran a 2:58 in Chicago '18 which is nothing super impressive but more worthy of Boston than a 3:27 marathon by some 30 year old woman on a bullshit Revel/Downhill course. If i don't get in with a 2:58 i'll be going for a 2:50 this coming Spring, but will opt to run NYC over Boston. And from there, absolutely choose Berlin/Tokyo in the future before i ever consider Boston again.

Maybe i'm in the minority there, but the other races have a better process and i think more appropriate gender/age times to put yourself against (15-20 minute gaps, not 30 minutes).