kboren wrote:
That your handle is “Competitive Running Club” says all that I need to know about you, even before reading your bad take.
There are quite a few diva runners out there that fancy themselves as something special.
kboren wrote:
That your handle is “Competitive Running Club” says all that I need to know about you, even before reading your bad take.
There are quite a few diva runners out there that fancy themselves as something special.
Still no field size announcement and registration starts Monday?
Waiting... wrote:
Still no field size announcement and registration starts Monday?
Does it matter? Will it change your time?
Trapper wrote:
Waiting... wrote:
Still no field size announcement and registration starts Monday?
Does it matter? Will it change your time?
No, but it will change the cutoff significantly if they increase the field 10-15%. The Field Size is a relevant topic, and being 3 days away from Registration with no announcement makes people curious.
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
No, but it will change the cutoff significantly if they increase the field 10-15%. The Field Size is a relevant topic, and being 3 days away from Registration with no announcement makes people curious.
No news is good news (30,000+) or no news is no news (30,000)
Wishin' and hopin' won't change the outcome. It only changes the cutoff guessing game.
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
The Field Size is a relevant topic, and being 3 days away from Registration with no announcement makes people curious.
If they're indeed still negotiating with towns to increase the field size, I don't think they need to have it finalized for another 2 weeks or so.
Next week we have registration for everyone more than 5 minutes under (first BQ-20, then BQ-10, then BQ-5). It's an extremely safe bet that all of these people will get in, regardless of final field size.
The following week we have registration for squeakers starting on Sept 16. As in all years past, all applications will be taken during the registration window, and then BAA will go off and figure out what the cutoff needs to be. The answer they really need at this point is whether to reopen registration on Sept 23 for first-come first-served (which hasn't happened in several years now).
In theory they could finalize field size with all towns on Friday the 20th, run the calculation to determine the cutoff, and make the announcement on or before the 23rd. Heck, last year they didn't announce the cutoff until the 27th, 3 days after the first-come first-served period would have opened. So they knew there would be a cutoff and no reason to reopen registration, but took a few extra days to figure out the final number based on whatever reasons. So again this year, the only real deadline is knowing whether to reopen on the 23rd based on field size and applicants. They could decide not to reopen on the 23rd, but still do some final negotiations on field size past that.
All of this stupidly wild speculation to say that while not announcing field size by now is unusual, it's not a bad sign, and perhaps it's a good sign for squeaker hobbyjoggers like myself (2:22 margin is definitely not getting in if they keep the same field size).
BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
No, but it will change the cutoff significantly if they increase the field 10-15%. The Field Size is a relevant topic, and being 3 days away from Registration with no announcement makes people curious.
No news is good news (30,000+) or no news is no news (30,000)
Wishin' and hopin' won't change the outcome. It only changes the cutoff guessing game.
Any money in this cutoff guessing game?
Professional Guesser wrote:
Any money in this cutoff guessing game?
Only if you send in an application for the race. Make the cutoff it costs you money. Miss the cutoff and you save money.
The actual no fee guess only earns you bragging rights which no one has yet attained.
HobbyJoggerSqueaker wrote:
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
The Field Size is a relevant topic, and being 3 days away from Registration with no announcement makes people curious.
If they're indeed still negotiating with towns to increase the field size, I don't think they need to have it finalized for another 2 weeks or so.
Next week we have registration for everyone more than 5 minutes under (first BQ-20, then BQ-10, then BQ-5). It's an extremely safe bet that all of these people will get in, regardless of final field size.
The following week we have registration for squeakers starting on Sept 16. As in all years past, all applications will be taken during the registration window, and then BAA will go off and figure out what the cutoff needs to be. The answer they really need at this point is whether to reopen registration on Sept 23 for first-come first-served (which hasn't happened in several years now).
In theory they could finalize field size with all towns on Friday the 20th, run the calculation to determine the cutoff, and make the announcement on or before the 23rd. Heck, last year they didn't announce the cutoff until the 27th, 3 days after the first-come first-served period would have opened. So they knew there would be a cutoff and no reason to reopen registration, but took a few extra days to figure out the final number based on whatever reasons. So again this year, the only real deadline is knowing whether to reopen on the 23rd based on field size and applicants. They could decide not to reopen on the 23rd, but still do some final negotiations on field size past that.
All of this stupidly wild speculation to say that while not announcing field size by now is unusual, it's not a bad sign, and perhaps it's a good sign for squeaker hobbyjoggers like myself (2:22 margin is definitely not getting in if they keep the same field size).
I guess i never thought about the possibility of not announcing it until after the registration. Would go against what they've been doing every year, but certainly an option they could exercise. Somewhere on this thread someone said they were told by the BAA it would be announced "within the coming days"... That was a few days ago. Certainly seems like they're still negotiating size.
Your BQ-2:22 will get in.
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
HobbyJoggerSqueaker wrote:
If they're indeed still negotiating with towns to increase the field size, I don't think they need to have it finalized for another 2 weeks or so.
Next week we have registration for everyone more than 5 minutes under (first BQ-20, then BQ-10, then BQ-5). It's an extremely safe bet that all of these people will get in, regardless of final field size.
The following week we have registration for squeakers starting on Sept 16. As in all years past, all applications will be taken during the registration window, and then BAA will go off and figure out what the cutoff needs to be. The answer they really need at this point is whether to reopen registration on Sept 23 for first-come first-served (which hasn't happened in several years now).
In theory they could finalize field size with all towns on Friday the 20th, run the calculation to determine the cutoff, and make the announcement on or before the 23rd. Heck, last year they didn't announce the cutoff until the 27th, 3 days after the first-come first-served period would have opened. So they knew there would be a cutoff and no reason to reopen registration, but took a few extra days to figure out the final number based on whatever reasons. So again this year, the only real deadline is knowing whether to reopen on the 23rd based on field size and applicants. They could decide not to reopen on the 23rd, but still do some final negotiations on field size past that.
All of this stupidly wild speculation to say that while not announcing field size by now is unusual, it's not a bad sign, and perhaps it's a good sign for squeaker hobbyjoggers like myself (2:22 margin is definitely not getting in if they keep the same field size).
I guess i never thought about the possibility of not announcing it until after the registration. Would go against what they've been doing every year, but certainly an option they could exercise. Somewhere on this thread someone said they were told by the BAA it would be announced "within the coming days"... That was a few days ago. Certainly seems like they're still negotiating size.
Your BQ-2:22 will get in.
Your -2:22 will not get you in.
Not Gonna Happen wrote:
ThisThreadTurnedToShit wrote:
I guess i never thought about the possibility of not announcing it until after the registration. Would go against what they've been doing every year, but certainly an option they could exercise. Somewhere on this thread someone said they were told by the BAA it would be announced "within the coming days"... That was a few days ago. Certainly seems like they're still negotiating size.
Your BQ-2:22 will get in.
Your -2:22 will not get you in.
It will be close methinks.
I'm sitting at -1:11 and feel like I won't make it, but hopeful if they bump the field size up a bit I'll squeak in.
Competitive Running Club wrote:
The trend is the key and the point. One data point doesn't show a trend and gain/loss of competitive runners. The trend this year is clear by Chicago filling the ADP program in May.
I'm not sure the Chicago ADP program filling up in May is a trend that will continue. It may be unique to this year with the trials coming up in 2020. I know a lot of sub-elite runners who are planning on Chicago, Indy, CIM, or Houston to try to hit the standard before March. A lot of women realize with the number of women OTQs being so large this year, the B standard is probably drop in 2024, so basically any woman I know who has ran ~2:55 or faster is going for it.
Well it looks like they're not going to announce the field size even now with registration open?
Who knows wrote:
Well it looks like they're not going to announce the field size even now with registration open?
That could be good news because the only way I see a cutoff near 0:00 is if they increase the field to 35,000.
BQ Cutoff Watch wrote:
Who knows wrote:
Well it looks like they're not going to announce the field size even now with registration open?
That could be good news because the only way I see a cutoff near 0:00 is if they increase the field to 35,000.
My opinion on the matter is that they have a ceiling for what they can increase the field size to. Maybe it's 32,000... Maybe 35,000. Who knows. But they aren't willing to increase it until they know the quality of times they're going to get.
After they get their 35k+ submissions through next week, they'll review the times and make the call.
Just completed a last chance BQ race on sat and ended up 4:17 under.. hoping (and praying) to squeak in next week
I read somewhere on RR that it says 30,000 with 80% being from qualifiers, which would put field size around 24,000.
Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.
First time trying to register, but only 3:36 (3:06:36) under qualifying time. Very frustrating to know I have to wait until next Monday to register, and hope there are spots.
The next big hobby jogger star wrote:
I read somewhere on RR that it says 30,000 with 80% being from qualifiers, which would put field size around 24,000.
Also I actually got a go ahead from work so there's a good chance I might actually register on Wed.
Any link on that? No field size has been announced from BAA to date.