I know what all of you are thinking. 1) "How is he going to win if he never ran a collegiate 10k race, let alone the biggest collegiate cross country race of the season?" 2) "How is he going to stay injury free considering that he has been so injury prone in the past?" This entire prediction is based on the assumption that he can stay fit, which has been an issue for him in the past.
Here are the reasons why he will win:
1) There is no clear favorite - This year there isn's a clear favorite, as there has been in previous years (Morgan McDonald in 2018, Justyn Knight in 2017). There will clearly be a new champion this upcoming season.
2) He performs well when it matter - He placed 4th in the 2019 NCAA west prelim 5k and ended up 3rd in the final. He finished one position higher in the final than he did in the prelim. Also, as a freshman he placed 8th in the Pac-12 cross country championships in a race that included Edward Cheserek, Grant Fisher, Sean McGorty, and Ben Saarel.
3) He's very strong - This is indicated by his form (which is very good) not breaking down throughout long and tough races.
He's also very tough. The guy knows how to grind. This is a very important quality for a good cross country runner. I even believe that the 10k will be his best distance considering his ability to grind.
4) He's a fearless racer - I first became aware of his fearless racing during the 2015 and 2016 New Balance Indoor Grand Prix junior mile races. He lead a majority of both races even though he was not the clear favorite. He finished fourth as a junior and second as a senior (getting barely out kicked by Jack Salisbury).
5) He has a strong kick - Closed in 54.41 seconds at the end of a 1500m race (final time - 3:49.67) in the prelim of the 2019 Pac-12 1500m race.
After years of being injured, I have reasons to believe that Ratcliffe will be healthy this upcoming season. He has just completed two consecutive seasons of healthy training and racing without getting injured. Which is the longest he has gone as a collegiate runner. Clearly, it seems that he has figured it out. After several surgeries and years of recovery, it seems that he is on an upward trajectory.
Let me know what you guys think?