Democrat presidential debate official thread

Bad Wigins wrote:

Sanders just can't catch a break! NH much closer than expected, but ekes out the win - and then Booty-Judge still gets as many delegates.

Dude's not just outnumbered, he's unlucky. Bad combo.

I check out what they are saying on MSNBC or CNN a bit most days. Except for a few commentators, the full time hosts on both networks are praising Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar. If Nevada polls are accurate, Senator Sanders is about to Kick Six Different Kinds of Dog Sh^t Out of the entire field in Nevada. Senator Sanders is leading in the polls in both CA & TX. If Senator Sanders wins Nevada, California and Texas while finishing in top three in South Carolina, this will be over. [Biden is down 3pts., average of polls to Senator Sanders in NV, but Biden will continue to fall before Nevada Caucus.] We can drag this out. Media can talk about contested convention, but it most likely will be over in a few weeks. I do not recall the top person, even if not 50% of delegates not getting super delegates at convention. If Senator Sanders is leading going into convention, would super delegates give Democrat nomination to Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg or Steyer? We'll find out.

Looks like Avenatti is out .

The prosecution all word Vaporflys 4%.

BROKERED CONVENTION??????????

Original Bernie Bro wrote:

If Senator Sanders is leading going into convention, would super delegates give Democrat nomination to Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg or Steyer? We'll find out.

It probably depends on the lead and who is in 2nd place. If Bernie has over 40%, they would probably nominate him.

It's not just the super delegates. If no one get 50% of the pledged delegates, all the delegates get to switch sides. So, If Bloomberg, Biden, Pete and Klobuchar have a majority between the four of them, they would probably band together behind one of them and beat Bernie. And, it goes without saying that the super delegates (who now don't vote in the 1st round) would go against Bernie.

UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:

Original Bernie Bro wrote:

If Senator Sanders is leading going into convention, would super delegates give Democrat nomination to Biden, Bloomberg, Buttigieg or Steyer? We'll find out.

It probably depends on the lead and who is in 2nd place. If Bernie has over 40%, they would probably nominate him.

It's not just the super delegates. If no one get 50% of the pledged delegates, all the delegates get to switch sides. So, If Bloomberg, Biden, Pete and Klobuchar have a majority between the four of them, they would probably band together behind one of them and beat Bernie. And, it goes without saying that the super delegates (who now don't vote in the 1st round) would go against Bernie.

We are going to want back all the time we have spent discussing Buttigieg and lately Klobuchar. Have you looked at average of polls in Nevada, South Carolina, California and Texas? Klobuchar hinted a day or two ago she would not rule out contesting if no one has over 50% at the time of convention. By convention time, no one will care what Klobuchar thinks. As the Democrats turn to multicultural states, this will be a contest between Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, Steyer and Warren. By the gist of your post, you seem to want a contested convention. A contested convention lowers the probability of a DNC presidential win, 2020. Democrats and Republicans do not legally have to have public input into their selection process. Caucuses and primaries are to gain popular support. At convention time, the rules can change. DNC can change the rules stating super delegates decide 75%. DNC will want to avoid a public convention political fight. I believe from memory, the last contested Democrat convention, was 1968. It was ugly inside the convention and outside. If I recall, it was in Chicago. Broadcast on the news, 1968, Chicago cops were beating protesters severely. You may believe it would be exciting if Senator Sanders, leads going into convention and then it is given to Buttigieg or Klobuchar even though by convention time Buttigieg & Klobuchar will be in 4th & 5th place in delegate count. Images of Sanders supports receiving beat downs inside and outside of convention center is something intelligent members of DNC will want to avoid. After four years of big fat orange face fella, big fat orange face fella will not be beaten by a Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Obama or HRC type limousine liberal.

Original Bernie Bro wrote:

Have you looked at average of polls in Nevada, South Carolina, California and Texas?

Klobuchar went from 4% to 10% in Nevada, and from 2% to 7% in South Carolina. In NH, Klobuchar polled 11% in the final RCP average and got 19% in the actual voting. We still have a debate in Nevada next week. If she finishes ahead of both Warren and Buttigieg in Nevada (which now looks likely), more voters (and donors) will head to her direction.

And just look for Biden voters if he underperforms in NV or SC.

dunes runner wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

Sanders just can't catch a break! NH much closer than expected, but ekes out the win - and then Booty-Judge still gets as many delegates. Dude's not just outnumbered, he's unlucky. Bad combo.

Sanders falls down in an upward trajectory to first place!

Check that delegate count again. Tie in NH means Alfred's still ahead. So sorry!

Original Bernie Bro wrote:

I check out what they are saying on MSNBC or CNN a bit most days.

Leave the fake news be, fool!

If Nevada polls are accurate, Senator Sanders is about to Kick Six Different Kinds of Dog Sh^t Out of the entire field in Nevada. Senator Sanders is leading in the polls in both CA & TX. If Senator Sanders wins Nevada, California and Texas while finishing in top three in South Carolina, this will be over. [Biden is down 3pts., average of polls to Senator Sanders in NV, but Biden will continue to fall before Nevada Caucus.] We can drag this out.

Don't get ahead of yourself. The poll averages in NH had Sanders over Alfred by double digits, and they had Biden winning IA. Primary polls are not and cannot be reliable, and the later the primary, the less reliable they are.

Biden is not going to keep falling, he is going to win South Carolina and hit his stride. Sanders' opponents will run the table on him in the southeast, including Florida.

Do you really think Sanders will walk out of California with a majority of its delegates? He polled within 7 in 2016, but oops! The people answering the poll didn't seem to realize only NPPs could cross over into their almost-closed primary. He was trounced 60 to 40 on election night and crawled back only a few points as the NPP ballots were slowly counted over the month until the certfication deadline stopped the count. The best he can do there is to eke out a small plurality.

Elsewhere he'll be blown away in Virginia (lost 65-35 in 2016), North Carolina (54-40), Tennessee (64-32), Arkansas (66-29), and Alabama (77-19.) Don't be so optimistic about Texas, either, he lost 65-33 there last time.

In the long run, the populous eastern states (New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) will be the nail in the coffin if nothing else.

With Bloomberg and the Stop, question and Frisk, Supposedly New York City was Getting about 2500 Murders per year almost entirely Blacks and to a lesser extent Spanish (Mostly Puerto Rican) after stop question and frisk came into effect Murders dropped dramatically to under 500 a year for the 12 years it was in effect, then when Bloomberg was no longer the Mayor, they got rid of Stop, Question and frisk immediately and the murders went up dramatically higher, but also many more went to jail when the policy was in place, mostly for drug possession and/or weapons possession. Currently in New York City , they are trying new things to get the Murder And Crime Rates Down , by not making people have to pay bail to be released, they try to get them to come back to court by offering them tickets to movies and sporting events, and letting people steal up to $950 Dollars before they are charged, I believe Owners of Convenience and Grocery stores are huge fans of these new policies, because if everyone can just steal up to, but not more than $950.00 before being arrested and if they Make ALL Drugs legal, then for sure The Crime Rates will go down.

Why was Stop Question and Frisk a bad thing if it prevented about 2000 Murders a year? Of course more people went to jail, but the ones who went to jail REALLY did a Crime, But with everyone allowed to take up to, but not more than $950 every time they go into a store, and with ALL drugs being legal, people will not be going to jail nearly as much, so the cops only job will be to stop murders ( AND NOT HAVING AS MANY MURDERS IS A GOOD THING RIGHT?)

So Maybe Bloomberg will be a good President.

The problem with stop and frisk was that black and Latino males were stopped and frisked, not white or Asian males.

Original Bernie Bro wrote:

By the gist of your post, you seem to want a contested convention.

I don't want a contested convention, but I can already hear in your post that if Bernie doesn't get the nomination it will be the corrupt DNC and the super-delegates' fault. That kind of attitude is what leads to the protests and violence.

I'm not emotional about this. I like to understand the rules and the possible outcomes, and then accept what happens. If Bernie gets the nomination despite only getting 30% of the delegates on the first vote, I won't be protesting and getting beaten by police. If Bernie gets 45% of the pledged delegates and doesn't get the nomination, I won't be protesting and getting beaten by police.

I'm also not going to make predictions about what is going to happen, because so far, I haven't found a single person that has come close. Do you know anyone that predicted what's happened? Maybe a single part of it, but not all of it. Biden's downfall. Warren's quick collapse. Buttigieg doing better than expected in NH. Klobuchar's big surprise in NH. I have no idea what will happen in NV and SC, other than I know it will be interesting.

And one possible outcome is the moderates continue to keep splitting a majority of the delegates all the way up to the convention. And if that happens, I would just say, prepare yourself emotionally for a contested convention that ends up nominating one of the moderates.

Outside of the Presidency, I'm pretty interested in getting rid of Cory Gardner because I live in Colorado. I'm hoping we have a Democratic nominee that will help the Dems carry the Senate vote in Colorado. The last poll I could find in CO was in August, and the liberals (Bernie and Warren) were polling stronger there than nationally at the time. So, Bernie might be the best option to win the Senate seat in Colorado.

UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:

if Bernie doesn't get the nomination it will be the corrupt DNC and the super-delegates' fault.

Now they're trying to do the same thing in Nevada with the votes and the delegates, that they did in Iowa and New Hampshire.

UsedToBeKnowItAll wrote:

I'm also not going to make predictions about what is going to happen, because so far, I haven't found a single person that has come close. Do you know anyone that predicted what's happened? Maybe a single part of it, but not all of it. Biden's downfall. Warren's quick collapse. Buttigieg doing better than expected in NH. Klobuchar's big surprise in NH. I have no idea what will happen in NV and SC, other than I know it will be interesting.

Here is a case in point.

The first number is RCP average of polls, the second number is the actual voting share, the third number is the difference.

Sanders: 28.7%. 25.9%. -2.8%.

Buttigieg: 21.3%, 24.4%. +3.1%

Klobuchar: 11.7%, 19.8%. +8.1%.

Warren: 11.0%, 9.3%, -1.7%.

Biden: 11.0%, 8.4%, -2.6%.

The Iowa Democratic chair has resigned. Meanwhile the questionable Iowa caucus results have not been corrected by the Iowa Democratic Party, and they have even left out one entire precinct.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyNCf33g9Ts

coach wrote:

The problem with stop and frisk was that black and Latino males were stopped and frisked, not white or Asian males.

They are in the pocket of the Sicilian mob. When are they gonna crack down on the Cosa Nostra? Totally corrupt.

Latest VP RUMOR, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/15/bloomberg-is-considering-hillary-clinton-as-his-running-mate-says-matt-drudge.html

coach wrote:

The problem with stop and frisk was that black and Latino males were stopped and frisked, not white or Asian males.

The Blacks and the Latinos are the ones committing all the crimes! Why not stop and frisk them? Like duh?!

Douglas, pleas stop believing that Drudge is a credible news source.