Aussiestatman wrote:
Women’s is not a DL event and SAFP will win over Talou and Bowie.
The 100
Pre Classic 2019 (6/30) - official discussion thread
Pro News/Info/Results
-
00
-
W800 list is finally up
Programme 2019
back
30.06.2019
13:47
800m Women
ENTRY LIST
SBPB
ETH
ALEMU, Habitam
1:59.901:56.71
JAM
GOULE, Natoya
1:59.501:56.15
USA
GREEN, Hanna
2:01.612:00.09
UKR
PRISHCHEPA, Natalіya
1:58.60
USA
ROGERS, Raevyn
1:59.071:57.69
RSA
SEMENYA, Caster
1:54.981:54.25
CHN
WANG, Chunyu
2:02.851:59.93
USA
WILSON, Ajee
1:58.831:55.61
The one I'm intrigued to watch is Goule who has been WAY off so far this season.
00 -
Aussiestatman wrote:
I choose Caroline based on her finishing just behind the big three over 5000 in the two biggest races last year, also winning the Doha 3000 and smashing the half marathon in Prague. Class over many distances
It's obvious you only chose her to show how incredible "clever" and knowledgeable you are (hint: you aren't). Everyone knows she could run a great time but won't be even close to win this race.
00 -
Aussiestatman is an annoying idiot wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I choose Caroline based on her finishing just behind the big three over 5000 in the two biggest races last year, also winning the Doha 3000 and smashing the half marathon in Prague. Class over many distances
It's obvious you only chose her to show how incredible "clever" and knowledgeable you are (hint: you aren't). Everyone knows she could run a great time but won't be even close to win this race.
Who do you think?
00 -
The women's steeple is even deeper than the 3k or the men's mile. Apart from Jebet and Grovdal I don't think anyone who has run fastish (faster than ~9:15) in the last few years is missing. And with Chepkoech having been beaten recently it might not be such a closed deal as last year's races.
And while it will be exciting to see what Houlihan and Kipyegon can do, in the 1500m my money is certainly on Muir who has been in very good shape and I can hardly imagine her losing to them in their first races of the season.
20 -
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman is an annoying idiot wrote:
It's obvious you only chose her to show how incredible "clever" and knowledgeable you are (hint: you aren't). Everyone knows she could run a great time but won't be even close to win this race.
Who do you think?
Ayana, Dibaba, or Obiri?
00 -
Taking into account both the ability of a very fast tempo from the gun (say 2:48 :2:48 2:46) and a fast close after a more moderate pace (like 5:40 - 2:44), I think Obiri and Dibaba are the best. But they are beatable and have been beaten. I have not seen the Hengelo race and was surprised that Hassan would lose such a race on the last lap (against someone not named Obiri, Dibaba or Muir). But Hassan seems to have regained her speed with a new 1500m PB.
Anyway, I don't want to underestimate the long distance types like Tirop or Kipkirui but I don't expect someone without a sub 4 1500m PB to win. The only long distance type to pull something like this off in a 3k would be Ayana in top form (which she certainly is not). But the field is large and there is Ayana and others who don't want to be outkicked on the last lap and someone will very probably keep the pace high and while 10 in the field can run 8:30, I think this number gets considerably smaller for 8:25.
00 -
Are we really sure obiri is in form? I remember her 5000m race in stockholm was really bad. Did she run well somewhere after that?
00 -
Aussiestatman is an annoying idiot wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
I choose Caroline based on her finishing just behind the big three over 5000 in the two biggest races last year, also winning the Doha 3000 and smashing the half marathon in Prague. Class over many distances
It's obvious you only chose her to show how incredible "clever" and knowledgeable you are (hint: you aren't). Everyone knows she could run a great time but won't be even close to win this race.
Why would you even say that to another human being? So bizarre.
00 -
Bad people here wrote:
Aussiestatman is an annoying idiot wrote:
It's obvious you only chose her to show how incredible "clever" and knowledgeable you are (hint: you aren't). Everyone knows she could run a great time but won't be even close to win this race.
Why would you even say that to another human being? So bizarre.
It didn’t bother me because I know it comes from jealousy. I get some great feedback for some of the threads I write.
00 -
outoftheloop wrote:
Are we really sure obiri is in form? I remember her 5000m race in stockholm was really bad. Did she run well somewhere after that?
I am not at all sure. Obiri has been inconsistent before but when she is on she is a force of nature. She owned Dibaba in the Doha 3k but looked bad in Stockholm. Last year she was badly beaten in some races but also beat Hassan in a very fast 5k. Go figure. I just think that Obiri and Dibaba are in theory the ones in the field who would do well in both very fast and not so fast races with a fast last 2 laps or so.
I think it will become fast from the gun because Ayana and maybe others will at least try to weaken the ones with fast finishes but with Obiri, Dibaba or Hassan in shape a 3k is too short for that strategy. They will go with it and still be faster at the end.
I am also excited about what Klosterhalfen can achieve. She broke 8:30 already in her breakthru season 2017 (in a badly paced race with her spending lots of time in lane 2) and this year ran 8:32 indoors with a negative split (2:42 last 1k) and it is going to be her first serious outdoor race after joining NOP. (Not sure if they are taking it slow on purpose because of the late date for Doha or if she had some trouble/slight injuries in spring, nothing transpired.) But it is an extremely strong field and she still is not so good tactically, so anything from a top 3 rank to 8th or worse seems possible
00 -
Always one of my favorite meets. I remember the 2001 Alan Webb 3:53/El G 3:49 mile like it was yesterday. This year it will be held in Stanford instead of Oregon - but most events still feature an absolutely stacked field. Who are you most excited to see? Predictions? Discuss.[/quote] Jonathan Gault has just published a preview of the men's mile and 2 mile . Link of the bottom of the article. I don't agree with his mile analysis.
Gault wrote:
So Kejelcha faces a choice. Option A: repeat his indoor strategy, where he tries to run away from everyone and clock the fastest time possible. Or Option B: race it more conventionally and rely on his kick. You would think, as a 3k/5k guy coming down, that Option A is the best one here. I disagree. That choice is great when you're easily the best guy in the field, but that's not the case here: this field contains the top five in our 2018 world rankings, including Cheruiyot, who has won eight of his last nine DL 1500/miles.
We saw what happened when Kejelcha tried this indoors in Birmingham: Tefera sat on him and pulled away late to break the WR. None of the guys in this field have run 3:47.01 for the mile, but several of them have run the equivalent in the 1500 (roughly 3:30 or faster). If Kejelcha tries to break everyone from the gun, we'll probably see a bunch of fast times with someone kicking by Kejelcha in the home straight (though if everyone runs like they did in Stockholm, that may be enough for Kejelcha to win).
If I were Kejelcha, I'd employ Option B. Kejelcha has a strong kick -- he closed in 53.2 to dust all the 5k guys in Shanghai last month. He just may have to employ it a little differently to prevail in a mile. Consider Cheruiyot and his training partner Elijah Manangoi, who have dominated the global 1500/mile scene over the last two years. Both men can kick, but they kick in different ways. Cheruiyot likes to go from farther out, often pushing hard at the bell or even before, with the goal of breaking everyone else by the time they reach the home straight. Manangoi, however, prefers to wait until the final 100 before unleashing his incredible top gear.
The world's top 5,000 runner might have trouble kicking away from the world's top milers over the final 100 or final 400. But what about the final 800? That just might be Kejelcha's best path to victory. It's close enough to the finish that Kejelcha should be able to sustain a hard move, but not so far out that he'd have to push the pace the entire way. Move to the lead with two to go, get the jump on someone like Cheruiyot (though that could be tough considering Cheruiyot usually goes straight to the front), and that could be enough to win.
We're sure that Alberto Salazar has his own plans for how he wants Kejelcha to run on Sunday, but his presence undeniably makes this race more interesting. Which is a good thing for an event that became very predictable down the stretch in 2018 as Cheruiyot began to dominate.
He talks about Kejelcha not wanting to make it a time trial as he'll get outkicked. Well the problem is the race is generally rabbited for 1200 meters so you have no option but to do with the rabbits. So his whole analysis doesn't make much sense to me.
If I was Kejelcha, I'd want this to be as fast of a race as possible. That doesn't mean that I'd hang myself out to to dry but that still might be hist best bet. But I'd just make sure the pack went with the rabbits (which normally happens at Pre). Then maybe sit in third and see what happens over the last 200 is a decent strategy.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/06/2019-pre-classic-mens-distance-preview-centro-returns-in-a-stacked-bowerman-mile-vs-kejelcha-cheruiyot-j-ingebrigtsen-more/00 -
rojo wrote:
Always one of my favorite meets. I remember the 2001 Alan Webb 3:53/El G 3:49 mile like it was yesterday.
This year it will be held in Stanford instead of Oregon - but most events still feature an absolutely stacked field.
Who are you most excited to see? Predictions? Discuss.
Jonathan Gault has just published a preview of the men's mile and 2 mile . Link of the bottom of the article.
I don't agree with his mile analysis.
Gault wrote:
So Kejelcha faces a choice. Option A: repeat his indoor strategy, where he tries to run away from everyone and clock the fastest time possible. Or Option B: race it more conventionally and rely on his kick. You would think, as a 3k/5k guy coming down, that Option A is the best one here. I disagree. That choice is great when you're easily the best guy in the field, but that's not the case here: this field contains the top five in our 2018 world rankings, including Cheruiyot, who has won eight of his last nine DL 1500/miles.
We saw what happened when Kejelcha tried this indoors in Birmingham: Tefera sat on him and pulled away late to break the WR. None of the guys in this field have run 3:47.01 for the mile, but several of them have run the equivalent in the 1500 (roughly 3:30 or faster). If Kejelcha tries to break everyone from the gun, we'll probably see a bunch of fast times with someone kicking by Kejelcha in the home straight (though if everyone runs like they did in Stockholm, that may be enough for Kejelcha to win).
If I were Kejelcha, I'd employ Option B. Kejelcha has a strong kick -- he closed in 53.2 to dust all the 5k guys in Shanghai last month. He just may have to employ it a little differently to prevail in a mile. Consider Cheruiyot and his training partner Elijah Manangoi, who have dominated the global 1500/mile scene over the last two years. Both men can kick, but they kick in different ways. Cheruiyot likes to go from farther out, often pushing hard at the bell or even before, with the goal of breaking everyone else by the time they reach the home straight. Manangoi, however, prefers to wait until the final 100 before unleashing his incredible top gear.
The world's top 5,000 runner might have trouble kicking away from the world's top milers over the final 100 or final 400. But what about the final 800? That just might be Kejelcha's best path to victory. It's close enough to the finish that Kejelcha should be able to sustain a hard move, but not so far out that he'd have to push the pace the entire way. Move to the lead with two to go, get the jump on someone like Cheruiyot (though that could be tough considering Cheruiyot usually goes straight to the front), and that could be enough to win.
We're sure that Alberto Salazar has his own plans for how he wants Kejelcha to run on Sunday, but his presence undeniably makes this race more interesting. Which is a good thing for an event that became very predictable down the stretch in 2018 as Cheruiyot began to dominate.
He talks about Kejelcha not wanting to make it a time trial as he'll get outkicked. Well the problem is the race is generally rabbited for 1200 meters so you have no option but to do with the rabbits. So his whole analysis doesn't make much sense to me.
If I was Kejelcha, I'd want this to be as fast of a race as possible. That doesn't mean that I'd hang myself out to to dry but that still might be hist best bet. But I'd just make sure the pack went with the rabbits (which normally happens at Pre). Then maybe sit in third and see what happens over the last 200 is a decent strategy.
https://www.letsrun.com/news/2019/06/2019-pre-classic-mens-distance-preview-centro-returns-in-a-stacked-bowerman-mile-vs-kejelcha-cheruiyot-j-ingebrigtsen-more/[/quote]
The 3:53 by Webb was just a wonderful race. But, you look at Jacob - and he is about 5 seconds faster than that. Quite incredible.
00 -
800 at last wrote:
W800 list is finally up.
He's a Y chromosome MAN.
Wtf is he still in a woman's race???? Get that CHEAT out of there.
00 -
In the Bowermen Mile the "Haircut" runs at the back and maybe 3:55.
00 -
Why would the women’s preview mention Semenya being in the 800 as a positive. Semenya should never be mentioned.
00 -
Stop the CHEATING wrote:
800 at last wrote:
W800 list is finally up.
He's a Y chromosome MAN.
Wtf is he still in a woman's race???? Get that CHEAT out of there.
"Bio-Cheats OUT!"
00 -
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Who do you think?
Ayana, Dibaba, or Obiri?
I think Obiri May well get up for this one. Ayana will be using this race as a sighter to see where she’s at. Let’s not forget she will primarily be focusing on 10k training for the WC.
Perhaps she will surprise me and blow apart the field to win, but I doubt it. What is often overlooked in races featuring Ayana is how her tactics can mess up the race plans of the others. If she ups tempo a third of the way into the race as is her normal MO, the others may find it difficult to let her go and be true to their own strategies. In this regard Ayana can influence an outcome even without winning herself.
00 -
Hill Run wrote:
I think Obiri May well get up for this one. Ayana will be using this race as a sighter to see where she’s at. Let’s not forget she will primarily be focusing on 10k training for the WC.
Perhaps she will surprise me and blow apart the field to win, but I doubt it. What is often overlooked in races featuring Ayana is how her tactics can mess up the race plans of the others. If she ups tempo a third of the way into the race as is her normal MO, the others may find it difficult to let her go and be true to their own strategies. In this regard Ayana can influence an outcome even without winning herself.
I basically agree with the two last points. Even in 8:22 form Ayana would have trouble to break up this field. 3k is too short and the others are too good for this. I don't think Obiri, Hassan and Dibaba, probably neither Gidey nor Koko will collapse on the track after 2k in 5:34. Unless she runs 8:15 nobody is gonna break up this field sufficiently to secure a win.
But Ayana (or someone else) can probably avoid a drop off the pace in the middle like in Doha (splits of 2:51 - 2:53 - 2:41-42 for Obiri and Dibaba as the first two with the last lap in ~61 when they gained 3-4 sec. the 8:29/30 runners) and it will be interesting to see who can take such a fast race from the start and throughout and who will be dropped.
00 -
Jo72 wrote:
Hill Run wrote:
I think Obiri May well get up for this one. Ayana will be using this race as a sighter to see where she’s at. Let’s not forget she will primarily be focusing on 10k training for the WC.
Perhaps she will surprise me and blow apart the field to win, but I doubt it. What is often overlooked in races featuring Ayana is how her tactics can mess up the race plans of the others. If she ups tempo a third of the way into the race as is her normal MO, the others may find it difficult to let her go and be true to their own strategies. In this regard Ayana can influence an outcome even without winning herself.
I basically agree with the two last points. Even in 8:22 form Ayana would have trouble to break up this field. 3k is too short and the others are too good for this. I don't think Obiri, Hassan and Dibaba, probably neither Gidey nor Koko will collapse on the track after 2k in 5:34. Unless she runs 8:15 nobody is gonna break up this field sufficiently to secure a win.
But Ayana (or someone else) can probably avoid a drop off the pace in the middle like in Doha (splits of 2:51 - 2:53 - 2:41-42 for Obiri and Dibaba as the first two with the last lap in ~61 when they gained 3-4 sec. the 8:29/30 runners) and it will be interesting to see who can take such a fast race from the start and throughout and who will be dropped.
Yes I agree with that, Ayana herself has said the 3k is too short for her. What I find interesting is the amended training some of the top females are doing to become beasts across unrelated distances. Hassan last year with the European H/M record combined with 1500 & 5000m performances (the female Kejelcha) and Obiri is Hardly less impressive with her range (sub 30 road 10k last year, cross country champion and 3000m win over Dibaba this year and 5k D/L champ last year out kicking Hassan no less)
Ayana now has some mid race high tempo competition- the other females must be training in a similar fashion long pace will win the 10k at worlds - and probably in the foreseeable future,
00
What People Are Talking About On LetsRun