Donavan Brazier entered in 1500

walter j wrote:

jklj;kljljl wrote:

His PR is 3:59, so to expect anything better than 3:40 would be a stretch.

His 3:59 was from a December indoors race when he was MAYBE in 1:46 shape. He's a bit better at the moment.

Yeah he's a bit better at the 800, not the mile.

Brazier facts wrote:

jklj;kljljl wrote:

His PR is 3:59, so to expect anything better than 3:40 would be a stretch.

Brazier has freakishly good natural endurance. At the state meet in HS, he lost to Grant Fisher by 40 seconds and finished 6th in a tough state all while having never run more than like 6 miles in his life and not wanting to run xc.

He’s run 3:59 in 1 attempt with a 54 close as rust buster. He’s probably a lot closer to a 3:33 type dude than you think. For this race, I’d say 3:36.

I remember him from high school, but just because I remember him being good at cross country at school doesn't mean he's going to run 3:33. He would only run 3:33 if he trained for the 1500, but you guys are crazy to think anything faster than 3:40.

DC Wonk wrote:

Brazier is fit, but he’s fit for the 800. I’d be very surprised and impressed if he breaks 3:40. But if the race is paced well for him, who knows? He will hang out in the back like he always does and probably try to run a fast final quarter.

How often do 1:43 guys with a sub 4 pr fail to break 3:40? (Tactical races notwithstanding)

WinnytheBish wrote:

walter j wrote:

His 3:59 was from a December indoors race when he was MAYBE in 1:46 shape. He's a bit better at the moment.

Yeah he's a bit better at the 800, not the mile.

You think he’s is in no better mile shape than December 2017? Haha okay I guess when he runs faster than the 3:41 mid/low equivalent I will bump this.

Brazier facts wrote:

jklj;kljljl wrote:

His PR is 3:59, so to expect anything better than 3:40 would be a stretch.

Brazier has freakishly good natural endurance. At the state meet in HS, he lost to Grant Fisher by 40 seconds and finished 6th in a tough state all while having never run more than like 6 miles in his life and not wanting to run xc.

He’s run 3:59 in 1 attempt with a 54 close as rust buster. He’s probably a lot closer to a 3:33 type dude than you think. For this race, I’d say 3:36.

I respect Brazier; Brazier is no longer within 40 seconds of Fisher in a 5000m race. Within 40 seconds would mean Brazier could race 14:09.xx 5000m. No.

I'll go for 3'38. I would be shocked if he broke 3'35 (and wonder if he should switch events) and think anything slower than 3'42 is disappointing

Yeah he is certainly better at the mile under NOP than he was running 20mpw with the A&M sprinters. If he doesn’t give up mentally mid race he should be able to go fast.

The 3:33-3:34 predictions are a long LONG shot for a domestic race against mid-high 3:30s competition. I don't doubt that Brazier has Wheating-esque ability to succeed at the 1500m, potentially in dramatic fashion, but I doubt it would happen in a race like this.

And for reference, Symmonds, who was arguably more well-rounded in the early part of his career, managed 3:36/3:56i bests, with a 1:42.95 PR.

no longer 40 ... wrote:

Brazier facts wrote:

Brazier has freakishly good natural endurance. At the state meet in HS, he lost to Grant Fisher by 40 seconds and finished 6th in a tough state all while having never run more than like 6 miles in his life and not wanting to run xc.

He’s run 3:59 in 1 attempt with a 54 close as rust buster. He’s probably a lot closer to a 3:33 type dude than you think. For this race, I’d say 3:36.

I respect Brazier; Brazier is no longer within 40 seconds of Fisher in a 5000m race. Within 40 seconds would mean Brazier could race 14:09.xx 5000m. No.

1. you don't know how close he is.

2. he doesn't need to be within 40 seconds. this is a 1500m. the point wasn't to say he's improved lockstep with grant fisher in the 5k. but moreso to highlight, when grant fisher was already a footlocker champ, and this kid was an 800m running xc by force, he finished 200m behind in a 5k. let's say he trained as a 5k runner in hs, how close do you think he would have been?

St Germain wrote:

The 3:33-3:34 predictions are a long LONG shot for a domestic race against mid-high 3:30s competition. I don't doubt that Brazier has Wheating-esque ability to succeed at the 1500m, potentially in dramatic fashion, but I doubt it would happen in a race like this.

And for reference, Symmonds, who was arguably more well-rounded in the early part of his career, managed 3:36/3:56i bests, with a 1:42.95 PR.

Symmonds more well-rounded? I think you guys are seriously underestimating how impressive Brazier's untrained XC races were in HS. He just hasn't run any longer race since. Mind you, he split 45.9r that spring in HS -- so he was able to have speed and endurance at the same time.

Here are the state meet results -- he was actually only 33 seconds behind Grant.

1. 12 Grant Fisher 14:52.5 Grand Blanc

2. 12 Logan Wetzel 15:19.2 Saline [4:04 mile]

3. 11 Anthony Berry 15:21.1 Traverse City Central [4:09 1600m]

4. 11 Isaac Harding 15:23.2 Rockford [,Footlocker finalist the next season, 14:07 5k college]

5. 12 Ryan Robinson 15:23.4 Waterford Mott [4:10 1600m / 8:56 3200m]

6. 12 Donavan Brazier 15:25.4 GR_Kenowa Hills

7. 12 Connor Wuori 15:25.5 Portage Central

8. 12 Jon Russell 15:27.3 Ann Arbor Skyline

9. 11 Chaz Jeffress 15:29.8 Salem [9:08 3200m]

10. 11 Andrew Lorant 15:32.0 Lake Orion

3:36.5 - 3:37.9 for this race but eventually he can go sub 3:33

3:35.50.

I think all of you have forgotten about David Krummenaker as well as Kaki...both 3:31 guys, but 800m specialists.

VIPAM wrote:

3:36.5 - 3:37.9 for this race but eventually he can go sub 3:33

Agree with this. Maybe the kind of race where they're even on 3:36 pace so the winning time will be maybe 3:33-34 with a slew of guys 3:35-3:40. I think he breaks 3:40 & gets close to 3:36. I wonder if they're seeing if he can hit that time off of 800 training. Who knows.

St Germain wrote:

And for reference, Symmonds, who was arguably more well-rounded in the early part of his career, managed 3:36/3:56i bests, with a 1:42.95 PR.

Nick actually ran 3:34 in Monaco.

Why is he running this? Test his endurance? Give himself more worlds/Olympics options? Just to mix it up and have fun?

I predict around 3.36 - 3.38. Wish more athletes would mix it up a bit and try other events.

what are you talking about? wrote:

I predict 3:34.

Wow!

3:34 would be something special, but I highly doubt it. 3:40 is what I am predicting...anything under that would be a success.

What race is this and when will it be?