16th woman should be Kit Ching Yiu of Hong Kong, 31yo. PB of 2.36.11 at the Rio Olympics for 39th. Also 2015 World champs in Beijing was 32nd.
16th woman should be Kit Ching Yiu of Hong Kong, 31yo. PB of 2.36.11 at the Rio Olympics for 39th. Also 2015 World champs in Beijing was 32nd.
17th female will be, IMHO, Marnie Ponton, 35yo, ranked 566 as a marathoner but 188 as a road runner. Marnie's best at the classic distance is 2.40.32, 8th here in 2017, but with her marked improvement last year at the half, hopefully a better time comes here, too. Ran two quick halfs last year, sunshine coast [second in 73.26] then cardiff for the Commonwealth Champs, 6th in 72.21. Like a few men here, does the double distance mess up her running pace or does the wall hurt too much?
five minutes until the start, my next 5 men are Dejen Gebreslassie, Yuki Munakata, Nic Harman, Mike Chesire, and Shin Kimura.
and another five women in order: Lydia O'Donnell, Dagmara Handzlik [National Record holder of Cyprus], Roxie Fraser, Nera Jareb, and Xiuying Hu. Just missing is Maki Inami and Nerissa O'Donnell.
27 in the lead pack, Scott Westcott in the next group with lagat
Sceptical wrote:
I'm surprised you've put Westcott as first Aussie. 3 years post his 2:15 at Rio and post a recent 1:09 Half, 30:36 10k I think he's closer to 2:20 now. Would have thought Adams, St Lawrence and Harman all likely to finish ahead of him
Looks like a good call early
In the women’s at 5k, 2.25+ pace, seven leaders, then two groups of three, then marnie alone
Aussiestatman wrote:
16th woman should be Kit Ching Yiu of Hong Kong, 31yo. PB of 2.36.11 at the Rio Olympics for 39th. Also 2015 World champs in Beijing was 32nd.
Looking for a huge pb early
Aussiestatman wrote:
27 in the lead pack, Scott Westcott in the next group with lagat
That was 5k, at 10, pace is 2.07.36, twelve including three pacemakers, then five at 2.10.37, d.chebii alone, bunny with another eight at 2.13.03. Lagat there. Westcott in next 13 at 2.16.20. Top 40.
Aussiestatman wrote:
In the women’s at 5k, 2.25+ pace, seven leaders, then two groups of three, then marnie alone
Women are down to only four who can win at 10k.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
In the women’s at 5k, 2.25+ pace, seven leaders, then two groups of three, then marnie alone
Women are down to only four who can win at 10k.
Plus another 14 who are still under 2.40 pace
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
16th woman should be Kit Ching Yiu of Hong Kong, 31yo. PB of 2.36.11 at the Rio Olympics for 39th. Also 2015 World champs in Beijing was 32nd.
Looking for a huge pb early
On pace for 2.33.55 at 15k. About 10th.
60:20 for the 20k split.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
In the women’s at 5k, 2.25+ pace, seven leaders, then two groups of three, then marnie alone
Women are down to only four who can win at 10k.
At halfway, Tanui and Weldu together in 72.34, 15 sec to truphena, 90 sec to jerotich.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Next female may be Rodah Jepkorir, born 91 and ranked 187. Her PB was just this April, 2nd in Enschede, NED, in 2.27.38. Just 4 weeks later was second in Geneva in 2.29.15. This marathon in early July will be her 4th this year. In 2018 was third in Dalian in 2.32.54.
Equal leader at halfway, could take 2.30 off her pb at this pace
Aussiestatman wrote:
Third woman could be Truphena Chepchirchir, turning 29 later this month and ranked 128. Recorded her PB just this April in Dongying, third in 2.27.52. Last year was second in Marrakesh in 2.28.11.
Clear third at halfway, could slice two min off pb
Aussiestatman wrote:
Eighth female could well be Nazret Weldu of Eritrea, 29yo [supposedly born 1/1] and ranked 228. Recorded her PB last year, completing Beirut second in 2.29.48.
Equal leader at halfway, could smash her pb if she hangs on
Aussiestatman wrote:
Has a runner on debut over the classic distance ever won a gold label event? I am tipping Zane Robertson to achieve this next month here. I believe he can break his brother’s national record of 2.08.26 but not get Deek’s 33 year old Oceania record of 2.07.51. Zane is 29 and ranked 170 as a road runner. Last year had two road runs, over 10k and 10 miles, finishing 5th and sixth. He is listed with a dnf from Amsterdam 2017 but the IAAF still talk about this as his debut. That event was just five weeks after running a half in Britain in 61.42. His best over that distance was 59.47, second at Marugame in 2015.
At 30k is among three with a bunny pacing 2.06.52.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Aussiestatman wrote:
Has a runner on debut over the classic distance ever won a gold label event? I am tipping Zane Robertson to achieve this next month here. I believe he can break his brother’s national record of 2.08.26 but not get Deek’s 33 year old Oceania record of 2.07.51. Zane is 29 and ranked 170 as a road runner. Last year had two road runs, over 10k and 10 miles, finishing 5th and sixth. He is listed with a dnf from Amsterdam 2017 but the IAAF still talk about this as his debut. That event was just five weeks after running a half in Britain in 61.42. His best over that distance was 59.47, second at Marugame in 2015.
At 30k is among three with a bunny pacing 2.06.52.
Deek is at his mercy if he doesn’t Stinson it.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Second overall should be Yuta Shitara, 27yo and ranked 50. Achieved his PB in running second in Tokyo in 2018, his time was 2.06.11. The previous year finished two majors, both in under 2.10. Also in 2017 was his best time in a half in the Czech Rep, 60.17.
Equal leader at 30k